Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Uganda: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 34/100); the economy is in expansion; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 8.12 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.32, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±6.4434 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Uganda: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.4 | -0.58 | -6.22 | -4.03 – -2.77 |
| 2029 | -2.4 | 2.48 | -7.29 | -3.52 – -1.29 |
| 2031 | -1.41 | 4.9 | -7.71 | -2.8 – -0.01 |
| 2036 | 1.09 | 10 | -7.82 | -0.9 – 3.08 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.77 | 28.12 | 16.26 | 20.51 – 23.02 |
| 2028 | 22.42 | 33.43 | 12.88 | 19.77 – 25.07 |
| 2030 | 23.08 | 37.29 | 10.76 | 19.2 – 26.95 |
| 2035 | 24.71 | 44.82 | 7.29 | 17.89 – 31.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 78.9bn | 85.3bn | 73.4bn | 76.5bn – 81.4bn |
| 2029 | 92.8bn | 103.8bn | 83.3bn | 86bn – 99.7bn |
| 2031 | 106.8bn | 121bn | 94.5bn | 94.7bn – 118.9bn |
| 2036 | 141.6bn | 161.7bn | 124.2bn | 112.2bn – 171bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.12 | 8.77 | 7.55 | 7.87 – 8.37 |
| 2029 | 9.57 | 10.7 | 8.59 | 8.86 – 10.28 |
| 2031 | 11.03 | 12 | 9.76 | 9.77 – 12 |
| 2036 | 12 | 12 | 10.21 | 9.51 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.6k | 1.7k | 1.4k | 1.5k – 1.6k |
| 2029 | 1.8k | 2.1k | 1.6k | 1.7k – 2k |
| 2031 | 2.1k | 2.4k | 1.8k | 1.8k – 2.3k |
| 2036 | 2.7k | 3.2k | 2.2k | 2.1k – 3.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 57.46 | 62.1 | 52.11 | 55.68 – 59.24 |
| 2029 | 62.39 | 70.43 | 53.11 | 57.77 – 67 |
| 2031 | 67.32 | 77.69 | 55.34 | 59.67 – 74.96 |
| 2036 | 79.63 | 94.31 | 62.69 | 63.11 – 96.15 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.54 | 34.8 | 24.29 | 28.26 – 30.82 |
| 2028 | 31.11 | 40.21 | 22 | 28.22 – 33.99 |
| 2030 | 32.67 | 44.42 | 20.92 | 28.26 – 37.08 |
| 2035 | 36.58 | 53.2 | 19.96 | 28.18 – 44.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.2 | 9.34 | -1.3 | 3 – 5.41 |
| 2029 | 4.79 | 13.69 | -4.75 | 2.59 – 6.99 |
| 2031 | 5.38 | 16.86 | -5 | 2.4 – 8.35 |
| 2036 | 6.84 | 23.09 | -5 | 2.15 – 11.54 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.47 | 23.22 | 19.95 | 20.81 – 22.14 |
| 2028 | 20.54 | 23.57 | 17.91 | 19.02 – 22.05 |
| 2030 | 19.6 | 23.52 | 16.21 | 17.38 – 21.83 |
| 2035 | 17.26 | 22.8 | 12.46 | 13.68 – 20.84 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 49m | 51.4m | 46.9m | 47.5m – 50.6m |
| 2029 | 47.2m | 50.4m | 44.2m | 43.7m – 50.7m |
| 2031 | 45.3m | 49.4m | 41.5m | 40.2m – 50.5m |
| 2036 | 40.7m | 46.5m | 35.3m | 32.3m – 49.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.48 | 6.11 | 1.51 | 3.09 – 3.86 |
| 2028 | 5.5 | 10.05 | 2.09 | 4.67 – 6.33 |
| 2030 | 7.52 | 13.39 | 3.12 | 6.18 – 8.86 |
| 2035 | 12.57 | 15 | 6.34 | 9.52 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.3bn | 4.4bn | 2.1bn | 3bn – 3.5bn |
| 2027 | 2.8bn | 4.8bn | 782.5m | 2.4bn – 3.2bn |
| 2029 | 2.3bn | 4.9bn | 0 | 1.7bn – 2.9bn |
| 2034 | 1.2bn | 4.8bn | 0 | 410.2m – 1.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.39(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.93 | 4.5 | 1.35 | 2.64 – 3.21 |
| 2027 | 3.56 | 6.28 | 0.84 | 2.97 – 4.15 |
| 2029 | 3.87 | 7.39 | 0.35 | 3.02 – 4.72 |
| 2034 | 4.12 | 9.09 | 0 | 2.7 – 5.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.3bn | 4.4bn | 2.1bn | 3bn – 3.5bn |
| 2027 | 2.8bn | 4.8bn | 782.5m | 2.4bn – 3.2bn |
| 2029 | 2.3bn | 4.9bn | 0 | 1.7bn – 2.9bn |
| 2034 | 1.2bn | 4.8bn | 0 | 410.2m – 1.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.53 | 2.95 | 2.11 | 2.43 – 2.64 |
| 2028 | 2.1 | 2.83 | 1.37 | 1.89 – 2.31 |
| 2030 | 1.67 | 2.61 | 0.73 | 1.39 – 1.95 |
| 2035 | 0.6 | 1.93 | 0 | 0.23 – 0.96 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/UGA · API docs
