Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Uganda: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 33/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.83 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.34, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-12% skill vs naive; realized ±0.6266 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Uganda: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-7.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.01 | -1.84 | -8.19 | -5.74 – -4.28 |
| 2028 | -4.84 | 0.66 | -10.34 | -6.19 – -3.48 |
| 2030 | -4.67 | 2.44 | -11.77 | -6.49 – -2.84 |
| 2035 | -4.23 | 5.81 | -14.27 | -6.96 – -1.5 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.77 | 28.12 | 16.26 | 20.51 – 23.02 |
| 2028 | 22.42 | 33.43 | 12.88 | 19.77 – 25.07 |
| 2030 | 23.08 | 37.29 | 10.76 | 19.2 – 26.95 |
| 2035 | 24.71 | 44.82 | 7.29 | 17.89 – 31.54 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 65.8bn | 69.9bn | 62.3bn | 63.8bn – 67.8bn |
| 2028 | 75.5bn | 82.5bn | 69.4bn | 69.9bn – 81.1bn |
| 2030 | 85.2bn | 94.3bn | 77.4bn | 75.6bn – 94.9bn |
| 2035 | 109.5bn | 122.4bn | 98.4bn | 86.8bn – 132.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.83 | 7.35 | 6.37 | 6.61 – 7.04 |
| 2028 | 7.99 | 8.91 | 7.2 | 7.4 – 8.58 |
| 2030 | 9.15 | 10.34 | 8.13 | 8.12 – 10.19 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | 10.55 | 9.51 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3k | 1.3k | 1.2k | 1.2k – 1.3k |
| 2028 | 1.4k | 1.5k | 1.3k | 1.3k – 1.5k |
| 2030 | 1.5k | 1.7k | 1.4k | 1.4k – 1.7k |
| 2035 | 1.9k | 2.1k | 1.7k | 1.5k – 2.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.87 | 60.45 | 50.59 | 54.14 – 57.6 |
| 2028 | 61.21 | 69.14 | 52.06 | 56.68 – 65.74 |
| 2030 | 66.55 | 76.79 | 54.74 | 59 – 74.11 |
| 2035 | 79.91 | 94.39 | 63.2 | 63.33 – 96.48 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.54 | 34.8 | 24.29 | 28.26 – 30.82 |
| 2028 | 31.11 | 40.21 | 22 | 28.22 – 33.99 |
| 2030 | 32.67 | 44.42 | 20.92 | 28.26 – 37.08 |
| 2035 | 36.58 | 53.2 | 19.96 | 28.18 – 44.98 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.88 | 9.15 | -1.77 | 2.65 – 5.11 |
| 2028 | 4.24 | 13.37 | -5 | 2.01 – 6.47 |
| 2030 | 4.6 | 16.39 | -5 | 1.62 – 7.58 |
| 2035 | 5.5 | 22.17 | -5 | 0.93 – 10.08 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.47 | 23.22 | 19.95 | 20.81 – 22.14 |
| 2028 | 20.54 | 23.57 | 17.91 | 19.02 – 22.05 |
| 2030 | 19.6 | 23.52 | 16.21 | 17.38 – 21.83 |
| 2035 | 17.26 | 22.8 | 12.46 | 13.68 – 20.84 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51m | 53.4m | 48.8m | 49.4m – 52.6m |
| 2028 | 52.5m | 55m | 50.2m | 48.6m – 56.4m |
| 2030 | 54m | 56.6m | 51.7m | 47.9m – 60.2m |
| 2035 | 57.8m | 60.5m | 55.3m | 45.8m – 69.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.48 | 6.11 | 1.51 | 3.09 – 3.86 |
| 2028 | 5.5 | 10.05 | 2.09 | 4.67 – 6.33 |
| 2030 | 7.52 | 13.39 | 3.12 | 6.18 – 8.86 |
| 2035 | 12.57 | 15 | 6.34 | 9.52 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.3bn | 4.4bn | 2.1bn | 3bn – 3.5bn |
| 2027 | 2.8bn | 4.8bn | 782.5m | 2.4bn – 3.2bn |
| 2029 | 2.3bn | 4.9bn | 0 | 1.7bn – 2.9bn |
| 2034 | 1.2bn | 4.8bn | 0 | 410.2m – 1.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.35(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.89 | 4.47 | 1.31 | 2.6 – 3.18 |
| 2027 | 3.54 | 6.28 | 0.8 | 2.95 – 4.13 |
| 2029 | 3.86 | 7.39 | 0.32 | 3.01 – 4.71 |
| 2034 | 4.11 | 9.11 | 0 | 2.69 – 5.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.3bn | 4.4bn | 2.1bn | 3bn – 3.5bn |
| 2027 | 2.8bn | 4.8bn | 782.5m | 2.4bn – 3.2bn |
| 2029 | 2.3bn | 4.9bn | 0 | 1.7bn – 2.9bn |
| 2034 | 1.2bn | 4.8bn | 0 | 410.2m – 1.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.53 | 2.95 | 2.11 | 2.43 – 2.64 |
| 2028 | 2.1 | 2.83 | 1.37 | 1.89 – 2.31 |
| 2030 | 1.67 | 2.61 | 0.73 | 1.39 – 1.95 |
| 2035 | 0.6 | 1.93 | 0 | 0.23 – 0.96 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/UGA · API docs
