Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Ukraine: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 64/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.27 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.28, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.18) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+16% skill vs naive; realized ±12.9043 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Ukraine: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2022, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-18.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -21.62 | -10.35 | -30 | -24.26 – -18.97 |
| 2029 | -27.06 | -7.54 | -30 | -30 – -21.77 |
| 2031 | -30 | -4.8 | -30 | -30 – -22.46 |
| 2036 | -30 | 5.64 | -30 | -30 – -17.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.55 | 29.09 | 16.88 | 21.25 – 23.84 |
| 2028 | 16.98 | 28.31 | 7.16 | 14.55 – 19.41 |
| 2030 | 11.41 | 26.04 | 0 | 8.41 – 14.41 |
| 2035 | 0 | 20.69 | 0 | 0 – 3.12 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed214.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 236bn | 284.3bn | 194.2bn | 226.5bn – 245.5bn |
| 2029 | 262.1bn | 345.8bn | 189.7bn | 239.6bn – 284.7bn |
| 2031 | 288.3bn | 396.2bn | 194.7bn | 252.3bn – 324.2bn |
| 2036 | 353.6bn | 506.2bn | 221.2bn | 278.8bn – 428.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.27 | 12 | -10 | -5.14 – 9.68 |
| 2029 | 3.28 | 12 | -10 | -9.65 – 12 |
| 2031 | 4.29 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2036 | 6.82 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.4k | 8.6k | 6.3k | 7.1k – 7.6k |
| 2029 | 8.5k | 10.5k | 6.7k | 7.8k – 9.1k |
| 2031 | 9.5k | 12.2k | 7.2k | 8.4k – 10.6k |
| 2036 | 12.2k | 16k | 8.9k | 9.7k – 14.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed122.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 129.17 | 153.72 | 100.85 | 123.33 – 135.01 |
| 2029 | 142.31 | 184.83 | 93.25 | 128.94 – 155.68 |
| 2031 | 155.45 | 210.34 | 92.12 | 134.57 – 176.33 |
| 2036 | 188.3 | 265.92 | 98.73 | 146.23 – 230.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.15 | 63 | 41.3 | 49.65 – 54.64 |
| 2028 | 52.75 | 71.55 | 33.96 | 47.35 – 58.16 |
| 2030 | 53.36 | 77.62 | 29.1 | 45.38 – 61.34 |
| 2035 | 54.87 | 89.18 | 20.56 | 40.84 – 68.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.09 | 18.6 | -5 | -0.4 – 6.58 |
| 2029 | -5 | 21.86 | -5 | -5 – 1.19 |
| 2031 | -5 | 29.68 | -5 | -5 – 3.09 |
| 2036 | -5 | 44.04 | -5 | -5 – 6.67 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.51 | 27.9 | 14.11 | 19.13 – 21.89 |
| 2028 | 23.19 | 35.99 | 12.11 | 20.25 – 26.14 |
| 2030 | 25.88 | 42.4 | 11.56 | 21.45 – 30.31 |
| 2035 | 32.59 | 55.95 | 12.35 | 24.04 – 41.15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 31.6m | 36m | 27.5m | 30.6m – 32.6m |
| 2029 | 24.2m | 31.8m | 17.1m | 22.4m – 26m |
| 2031 | 16.8m | 26.7m | 7.7m | 14.7m – 19m |
| 2036 | 0 | 13.9m | 0 | 0 – 1.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.44(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.99 | 15 | -2.57 | 4.46 – 7.51 |
| 2024 | 7.64 | 15 | -7.18 | 4.81 – 10.48 |
| 2026 | 9.3 | 15 | -9.84 | 5.37 – 13.23 |
| 2031 | 13.44 | 15 | -10 | 6.78 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.8bn | 68.4bn | 49.2bn | 56.4bn – 61.2bn |
| 2028 | 72bn | 88.6bn | 55.4bn | 66bn – 78bn |
| 2030 | 85.3bn | 106.7bn | 63.8bn | 75.2bn – 95.4bn |
| 2035 | 118.4bn | 148.7bn | 88bn | 93.8bn – 142.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.03(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.67 | 6.07 | 3.26 | 4.38 – 4.96 |
| 2027 | 4.23 | 6.67 | 1.8 | 3.66 – 4.81 |
| 2029 | 4.02 | 7.16 | 0.88 | 3.22 – 4.83 |
| 2034 | 3.85 | 8.29 | 0 | 2.56 – 5.15 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.1bn | 73.3bn | 52.8bn | 60.5bn – 65.7bn |
| 2028 | 77.4bn | 95.2bn | 59.7bn | 71bn – 83.9bn |
| 2030 | 91.8bn | 114.7bn | 68.9bn | 80.9bn – 102.6bn |
| 2035 | 127.7bn | 160.1bn | 95.3bn | 101.2bn – 154.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.83(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.98 | 23.76 | 0 | 6.57 – 11.38 |
| 2029 | 6.53 | 32.13 | 0 | 2.29 – 10.76 |
| 2031 | 4.08 | 37.13 | 0 | 0 – 9.46 |
| 2036 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 0 – 7.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/UKR · API docs
