Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Ukraine: macro conditions look stressed (pressure 75/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.06 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as stressed (sentiment -0.50, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: stressed (projected sentiment -0.52) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: moderate track record (+16% skill vs naive; realized ±0.9403 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Ukraine: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2022, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-18.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -16.49 | -5.15 | -27.84 | -19.07 – -13.91 |
| 2028 | -19.47 | 0.18 | -30 | -24.42 – -14.53 |
| 2030 | -22.45 | 2.92 | -30 | -29.43 – -15.48 |
| 2035 | -29.9 | 5.97 | -30 | -30 – -17.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.55 | 29.09 | 16.88 | 21.25 – 23.84 |
| 2028 | 16.98 | 28.31 | 7.16 | 14.55 – 19.41 |
| 2030 | 11.41 | 26.04 | 0 | 8.41 – 14.41 |
| 2035 | 0 | 20.69 | 0 | 0 – 3.12 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed214.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 225.6bn | 274.8bn | 183bn | 216.1bn – 235.1bn |
| 2028 | 253.2bn | 338.4bn | 179.4bn | 230.9bn – 275.5bn |
| 2030 | 280.9bn | 390.9bn | 185.5bn | 245.3bn – 316.4bn |
| 2035 | 349.9bn | 505.5bn | 215.1bn | 275.4bn – 424.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.06 | 12 | -10 | -6.41 – 8.53 |
| 2028 | 0.09 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2030 | -0.87 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2035 | -3.28 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2k | 7.3k | 5.3k | 6k – 6.5k |
| 2028 | 7.2k | 9k | 5.6k | 6.6k – 7.7k |
| 2030 | 8.1k | 10.5k | 6k | 7.2k – 9k |
| 2035 | 10.4k | 13.8k | 7.5k | 8.3k – 12.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed122.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 112.12 | 137.13 | 83.25 | 106.47 – 117.76 |
| 2028 | 118.95 | 162.28 | 68.95 | 106.57 – 131.32 |
| 2030 | 125.78 | 181.72 | 61.23 | 107.11 – 144.44 |
| 2035 | 142.85 | 221.97 | 51.57 | 107.82 – 177.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.15 | 63 | 41.3 | 49.65 – 54.64 |
| 2028 | 52.75 | 71.55 | 33.96 | 47.35 – 58.16 |
| 2030 | 53.36 | 77.62 | 29.1 | 45.38 – 61.34 |
| 2035 | 54.87 | 89.18 | 20.56 | 40.84 – 68.9 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.89 | 30.91 | -0.21 | 12.3 – 19.47 |
| 2028 | 24.61 | 50 | -3.28 | 17.66 – 31.56 |
| 2030 | 33.33 | 50 | -2.67 | 23.21 – 43.44 |
| 2035 | 50 | 50 | -0.91 | 31.47 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.51 | 27.9 | 14.11 | 19.13 – 21.89 |
| 2028 | 23.19 | 35.99 | 12.11 | 20.25 – 26.14 |
| 2030 | 25.88 | 42.4 | 11.56 | 21.45 – 30.31 |
| 2035 | 32.59 | 55.95 | 12.35 | 24.04 – 41.15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.5m | 42.2m | 37m | 38.3m – 40.7m |
| 2028 | 40.7m | 45.4m | 36.4m | 37.7m – 43.8m |
| 2030 | 42m | 48m | 36.4m | 37.2m – 46.7m |
| 2035 | 45.1m | 53.6m | 37.1m | 35.7m – 54.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.44(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 5.99 | 15 | -2.57 | 4.46 – 7.51 |
| 2024 | 7.64 | 15 | -7.18 | 4.81 – 10.48 |
| 2026 | 9.3 | 15 | -9.84 | 5.37 – 13.23 |
| 2031 | 13.44 | 15 | -10 | 6.78 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.8bn | 68.4bn | 49.2bn | 56.4bn – 61.2bn |
| 2028 | 72bn | 88.6bn | 55.4bn | 66bn – 78bn |
| 2030 | 85.3bn | 106.7bn | 63.8bn | 75.2bn – 95.4bn |
| 2035 | 118.4bn | 148.7bn | 88bn | 93.8bn – 142.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.03(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.67 | 6.07 | 3.26 | 4.38 – 4.96 |
| 2027 | 4.23 | 6.67 | 1.8 | 3.66 – 4.81 |
| 2029 | 4.02 | 7.16 | 0.88 | 3.22 – 4.83 |
| 2034 | 3.85 | 8.29 | 0 | 2.56 – 5.15 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.1bn | 73.3bn | 52.8bn | 60.5bn – 65.7bn |
| 2028 | 77.4bn | 95.2bn | 59.7bn | 71bn – 83.9bn |
| 2030 | 91.8bn | 114.7bn | 68.9bn | 80.9bn – 102.6bn |
| 2035 | 127.7bn | 160.1bn | 95.3bn | 101.2bn – 154.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.83(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.03 | 26.74 | 0 | 9.58 – 14.47 |
| 2028 | 12.89 | 38.37 | 0 | 8.37 – 17.41 |
| 2030 | 13.75 | 40 | 0 | 7.61 – 19.88 |
| 2035 | 15.89 | 40 | 0 | 6.23 – 25.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/UKR · API docs
