Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Uruguay: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 45/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.46 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-10% skill vs naive; realized ±0.6578 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Uruguay: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.72 | 2.28 | -3.73 | -1.35 – -0.09 |
| 2028 | -1.17 | 4.04 | -6.38 | -2.29 – -0.05 |
| 2030 | -1.62 | 5.11 | -8.34 | -3.12 – -0.12 |
| 2035 | -2.74 | 6.77 | -12.25 | -5.12 – -0.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.21 | 34.14 | 21.2 | 25.78 – 28.63 |
| 2028 | 27.48 | 39.49 | 17.08 | 24.45 – 30.52 |
| 2030 | 27.76 | 43.26 | 14.32 | 23.32 – 32.19 |
| 2035 | 28.44 | 50.36 | 9.45 | 20.76 – 36.13 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.7bn | 101.8bn | 77.4bn | 85.7bn – 91.7bn |
| 2028 | 97.3bn | 120bn | 77.6bn | 89.9bn – 104.7bn |
| 2030 | 105.9bn | 135.1bn | 80.5bn | 93.8bn – 117.9bn |
| 2035 | 127.3bn | 168.7bn | 91.4bn | 100.9bn – 153.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.46 | 12 | -8.55 | 0.3 – 4.61 |
| 2028 | 3.84 | 12 | -10 | -0.01 – 7.69 |
| 2030 | 5.22 | 12 | -10 | 0.07 – 10.37 |
| 2035 | 8.66 | 12 | -10 | 0.59 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.2k | 30.1k | 22.8k | 25.3k – 27.1k |
| 2028 | 28.8k | 35.5k | 22.9k | 26.6k – 30.9k |
| 2030 | 31.3k | 40k | 23.8k | 27.7k – 34.9k |
| 2035 | 37.7k | 49.9k | 27k | 29.9k – 45.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 66.83 | 74.23 | 58.3 | 64.63 – 69.04 |
| 2028 | 69.1 | 81.91 | 54.32 | 63.81 – 74.39 |
| 2030 | 71.37 | 87.91 | 52.29 | 63.12 – 79.62 |
| 2035 | 77.04 | 100.43 | 50.05 | 61.06 – 93.02 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.96 | 26.94 | 18.98 | 21.98 – 23.93 |
| 2028 | 23.58 | 30.48 | 16.69 | 21.39 – 25.77 |
| 2030 | 24.21 | 33.11 | 15.3 | 20.91 – 27.5 |
| 2035 | 25.76 | 38.35 | 13.18 | 19.72 – 31.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.74 | 7.92 | 1.35 | 3.96 – 5.52 |
| 2028 | 4.47 | 9.96 | -1.42 | 3.03 – 5.9 |
| 2030 | 4.19 | 11.28 | -3.41 | 2.28 – 6.09 |
| 2035 | 3.49 | 13.52 | -5 | 0.71 – 6.27 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.43 | 18.09 | 13.13 | 14.81 – 16.06 |
| 2028 | 14.56 | 19.16 | 10.57 | 13.2 – 15.91 |
| 2030 | 13.68 | 19.62 | 8.53 | 11.74 – 15.62 |
| 2035 | 11.49 | 19.9 | 4.21 | 8.45 – 14.53 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.4m | 3.5m | 3.2m | 3.3m – 3.5m |
| 2028 | 3.4m | 3.5m | 3.2m | 3.1m – 3.6m |
| 2030 | 3.4m | 3.5m | 3.2m | 3m – 3.8m |
| 2035 | 3.4m | 3.5m | 3.2m | 2.7m – 4.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.63 | 7.39 | -4.45 | -0.23 – 1.49 |
| 2028 | 0.63 | 12.35 | -8.16 | -0.88 – 2.14 |
| 2030 | 0.63 | 15 | -10 | -1.34 – 2.6 |
| 2035 | 0.63 | 15 | -10 | -2.2 – 3.47 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.8bn | 22.3bn | 17.2bn | 19.1bn – 20.5bn |
| 2028 | 21.6bn | 26bn | 17.3bn | 19.9bn – 23.3bn |
| 2030 | 23.5bn | 29.1bn | 17.9bn | 20.8bn – 26.2bn |
| 2035 | 28.2bn | 36.1bn | 20.2bn | 22.3bn – 34bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.81 | 12.58 | 5.05 | 8.1 – 9.53 |
| 2028 | 8.99 | 15.51 | 2.47 | 7.56 – 10.42 |
| 2030 | 9.07 | 17.49 | 0.65 | 7.06 – 11.09 |
| 2035 | 9.14 | 21.05 | 0 | 5.86 – 12.42 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.8bn | 22.3bn | 17.3bn | 19.1bn – 20.5bn |
| 2028 | 21.6bn | 26bn | 17.3bn | 19.9bn – 23.3bn |
| 2030 | 23.5bn | 29.1bn | 17.9bn | 20.8bn – 26.3bn |
| 2035 | 28.2bn | 36.1bn | 20.3bn | 22.3bn – 34bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.02 | 8.36 | 5.68 | 6.7 – 7.34 |
| 2028 | 6.03 | 8.35 | 3.71 | 5.38 – 6.67 |
| 2030 | 5.04 | 8.03 | 2.04 | 4.17 – 5.9 |
| 2035 | 2.55 | 6.79 | 0 | 1.5 – 3.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/URY · API docs
