PredictonomyPredictonomy
Home
Countries
Indicators
Sectors
Studios
Briefings
Methodology
Sign in
PredictonomyPredictonomy

Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

Research and information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain.

Explore

  • Home
  • Countries
  • Indicators
  • Sectors
  • Studios
  • Briefings
  • Methodology
  • Global dashboard
  • Signals

Company

  • Pricing
  • Developers
  • Data status
  • About
  • Legal
World/Briefs/United States

Intelligence brief

United States — intelligence brief

The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, and the business-cycle regime. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; nothing here is a forecast, and an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

Brief

What the data says

Observed macro, derived sentiment, and the business-cycle regime — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.

Full briefledger ca5c236

United States: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 52/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 13 observed macro indicators held.

Macro sentiment

Macro pressure

Derived
Watch
52/ 100

Higher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).

ⓘ How this score works
Confidence: 90%

Business-cycle regime

DerivedRegime inputsas of 2026

Expansion

growth 2.3%momentum +0.20confidence: high
Turning-point signals
  • Real GDP growth turned up (was falling, now rising).
  • CPI inflation turned up (was falling, now rising).

Latest observations

Observed2 indicators omitted (not covered)

as of 2026-05-01

Consumer confidence indexObserved
95.6

OECD SDMX API

as of 2026-01-01

Current account balance to GDPObserved
-3.7%

IMF DataMapper API

as of 2024-01-01

Exports of goods and servicesObserved
11.1%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Gross domestic product, current US dollarsObserved
$28.8T

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

GDP per capita, current US dollarsObserved
$84.5k

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Real GDP growthObserved
2.8%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2026-01-01

General government debt to GDPObserved
125.8%

IMF DataMapper API

as of 2024-01-01

Imports of goods and servicesObserved
14.3%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Consumer price inflationObserved
2.9%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Gross fixed capital formation to GDPObserved
21.7%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Total populationObserved
340.1m

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2024-01-01

Productivity growthObserved
2.1%

World Bank Indicators API

as of 2025-01-01

Unemployment rateObserved
4.2%

World Bank Indicators API

Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/USA · API docs