Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
United States: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 52/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 23 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.97 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.02) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-05-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-09
FRED API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-05-01
FRED API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
FRED API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±3.439 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
United States: forward projections across 18 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.89 | -2.92 | -4.86 | -4.15 – -3.63 |
| 2029 | -4.27 | -2.59 | -5.95 | -4.82 – -3.72 |
| 2031 | -4.65 | -2.48 | -6.82 | -5.46 – -3.83 |
| 2036 | -5.59 | -2.53 | -8.66 | -7.11 – -4.07 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.97(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10.8 | 12.47 | 9.36 | 10.39 – 11.21 |
| 2027 | 10.46 | 13.34 | 7.97 | 9.55 – 11.38 |
| 2029 | 10.12 | 13.84 | 6.9 | 8.78 – 11.46 |
| 2034 | 9.27 | 14.52 | 4.72 | 7.04 – 11.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.8T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 33.6T | 35.4T | 32.1T | 32.6T – 34.7T |
| 2029 | 36.8T | 39.6T | 34.3T | 34.1T – 39.5T |
| 2031 | 40T | 43.6T | 36.8T | 35.4T – 44.5T |
| 2036 | 47.9T | 53.1T | 43.4T | 38T – 57.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.97 | 5.06 | -0.7 | 1.43 – 2.52 |
| 2029 | 1.22 | 6.57 | -3.41 | 0.27 – 2.17 |
| 2031 | 0.47 | 7.37 | -5.51 | -0.76 – 1.7 |
| 2036 | -1.41 | 8.35 | -9.86 | -3.26 – 0.45 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 97.6k | 102.8k | 93.2k | 94.6k – 100.7k |
| 2029 | 106k | 114.6k | 98.6k | 98.2k – 113.9k |
| 2031 | 114.4k | 125.4k | 104.8k | 101.4k – 127.4k |
| 2036 | 135.4k | 151k | 121.8k | 107.3k – 163.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.54(2026)· FRED API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.09 | 5.99 | 2.06 | 3.56 – 4.63 |
| 2029 | 3.56 | 6.85 | 0.05 | 2.58 – 4.54 |
| 2031 | 3.3 | 7.54 | 0 | 1.99 – 4.61 |
| 2036 | 3.09 | 9.09 | 0 | 1.12 – 5.07 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed125.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 127.69 | 142.95 | 110.09 | 123.3 – 132.08 |
| 2029 | 131.47 | 157.89 | 100.98 | 121.09 – 141.84 |
| 2031 | 135.25 | 169.36 | 95.89 | 119.18 – 151.32 |
| 2036 | 144.7 | 192.94 | 89.03 | 114.12 – 175.27 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.04(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13.93 | 15.9 | 11.96 | 13.41 – 14.46 |
| 2027 | 13.72 | 17.13 | 10.31 | 12.54 – 14.9 |
| 2029 | 13.51 | 17.91 | 9.1 | 11.75 – 15.26 |
| 2034 | 12.97 | 19.2 | 6.74 | 9.94 – 16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.95(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.48 | 8.22 | -1.6 | 2.37 – 4.58 |
| 2029 | 4.18 | 12.39 | -4.62 | 2.16 – 6.2 |
| 2031 | 4.88 | 15.47 | -5 | 2.14 – 7.62 |
| 2036 | 6.63 | 21.61 | -5 | 2.24 – 11.01 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.17(2026)· FRED API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.87 | 8.54 | -1.13 | 2.78 – 4.97 |
| 2029 | 3.59 | 11.68 | -5 | 1.63 – 5.56 |
| 2031 | 3.49 | 13.93 | -5 | 0.9 – 6.09 |
| 2036 | 3.44 | 18.2 | -5 | -0.38 – 7.26 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.35(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21.37 | 22.5 | 20.4 | 20.71 – 22.04 |
| 2027 | 21.43 | 22.55 | 20.45 | 19.84 – 23.01 |
| 2029 | 21.48 | 22.61 | 20.5 | 19.04 – 23.92 |
| 2034 | 21.61 | 22.8 | 20.57 | 17.13 – 26.09 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.63(2026)· FRED API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.34 | 6.51 | -0.06 | 2.5 – 4.17 |
| 2029 | 2.99 | 8.48 | -2 | 1.49 – 4.49 |
| 2031 | 2.82 | 9.91 | -2 | 0.85 – 4.79 |
| 2036 | 2.68 | 12.71 | -2 | -0.22 – 5.58 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed341.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 342.2m | 358.4m | 327.2m | 331.6m – 352.8m |
| 2029 | 343.5m | 359.7m | 328.4m | 318.1m – 368.9m |
| 2031 | 344.8m | 361.1m | 329.7m | 305.6m – 383.9m |
| 2036 | 348m | 364.4m | 332.7m | 275.8m – 420.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.37 | 7 | -1.1 | 1.76 – 2.99 |
| 2028 | 3.23 | 11.24 | -2.78 | 2.07 – 4.38 |
| 2030 | 4.08 | 14.43 | -3.68 | 2.46 – 5.7 |
| 2035 | 6.21 | 15 | -4.76 | 3.39 – 9.04 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed243.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 250.1bn | 322.4bn | 177.7bn | 235bn – 265.1bn |
| 2028 | 269.7bn | 395bn | 144.3bn | 237.5bn – 301.8bn |
| 2030 | 289.3bn | 451.1bn | 127.5bn | 241.4bn – 337.2bn |
| 2035 | 338.3bn | 567.1bn | 109.5bn | 249.1bn – 427.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.53 | 3.21 | 1.85 | 2.39 – 2.67 |
| 2028 | 2.17 | 3.34 | 0.99 | 1.88 – 2.45 |
| 2030 | 1.99 | 3.5 | 0.47 | 1.6 – 2.38 |
| 2035 | 1.84 | 3.99 | 0 | 1.22 – 2.47 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5T | 1.8T | 1.2T | 1.5T – 1.6T |
| 2028 | 1.9T | 2.4T | 1.4T | 1.7T – 2T |
| 2030 | 2.2T | 2.9T | 1.6T | 1.9T – 2.5T |
| 2035 | 3.1T | 4T | 2.2T | 2.4T – 3.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.32 | 5.82 | 2.82 | 4.02 – 4.62 |
| 2029 | 4.17 | 6.76 | 1.57 | 3.57 – 4.76 |
| 2031 | 4.01 | 7.36 | 0.66 | 3.18 – 4.85 |
| 2036 | 3.62 | 8.37 | 0 | 2.32 – 4.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/USA · API docs
