Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
United States: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 51/100); the economy is in slowdown; 24 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.06 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.06) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-07-09
FRED API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-05-01
FRED API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-06-01
FRED API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±0.2385 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
United States: forward projections across 18 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.86 | -2.88 | -4.84 | -4.12 – -3.6 |
| 2028 | -4.38 | -2.68 | -6.07 | -4.93 – -3.82 |
| 2030 | -4.89 | -2.7 | -7.08 | -5.73 – -4.05 |
| 2035 | -6.18 | -3.09 | -9.28 | -7.8 – -4.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.97(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10.8 | 12.47 | 9.36 | 10.39 – 11.21 |
| 2027 | 10.46 | 13.34 | 7.97 | 9.55 – 11.38 |
| 2029 | 10.12 | 13.84 | 6.9 | 8.78 – 11.46 |
| 2034 | 9.27 | 14.52 | 4.72 | 7.04 – 11.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.8T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32T | 33.7T | 30.5T | 31T – 33T |
| 2028 | 35.1T | 38.1T | 32.6T | 32.5T – 37.7T |
| 2030 | 38.2T | 42.1T | 34.9T | 33.9T – 42.6T |
| 2035 | 46.1T | 51.4T | 41.4T | 36.5T – 55.6T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.06 | 10.35 | -5.12 | 0.65 – 3.48 |
| 2028 | 1.83 | 12 | -10 | -0.65 – 4.31 |
| 2030 | 1.6 | 12 | -10 | -1.61 – 4.82 |
| 2035 | 1.03 | 12 | -10 | -3.5 – 5.57 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 93.2k | 98.3k | 88.7k | 90.3k – 96.1k |
| 2028 | 101.3k | 110.2k | 93.7k | 93.8k – 108.8k |
| 2030 | 109.5k | 120.9k | 99.6k | 97k – 121.9k |
| 2035 | 129.9k | 146k | 115.9k | 102.9k – 156.8k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.54(2026)· FRED API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.09 | 5.99 | 2.06 | 3.56 – 4.63 |
| 2029 | 3.56 | 6.85 | 0.05 | 2.58 – 4.54 |
| 2031 | 3.3 | 7.54 | 0 | 1.99 – 4.61 |
| 2036 | 3.09 | 9.09 | 0 | 1.12 – 5.07 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed125.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 125.99 | 141.35 | 108.26 | 121.61 – 130.37 |
| 2028 | 130.17 | 156.78 | 99.46 | 119.82 – 140.51 |
| 2030 | 134.34 | 168.7 | 94.7 | 118.31 – 150.37 |
| 2035 | 144.78 | 193.37 | 88.73 | 114.14 – 175.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.04(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13.93 | 15.9 | 11.96 | 13.41 – 14.46 |
| 2027 | 13.72 | 17.13 | 10.31 | 12.54 – 14.9 |
| 2029 | 13.51 | 17.91 | 9.1 | 11.75 – 15.26 |
| 2034 | 12.97 | 19.2 | 6.74 | 9.94 – 16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.95(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.77 | 8.45 | -3.3 | 1.47 – 4.08 |
| 2028 | 2.43 | 12.25 | -5 | 0.13 – 4.72 |
| 2030 | 2.08 | 14.76 | -5 | -0.9 – 5.05 |
| 2035 | 1.2 | 19.14 | -5 | -2.96 – 5.37 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.17(2026)· FRED API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.87 | 8.54 | -1.13 | 2.78 – 4.97 |
| 2029 | 3.59 | 11.68 | -5 | 1.63 – 5.56 |
| 2031 | 3.49 | 13.93 | -5 | 0.9 – 6.09 |
| 2036 | 3.44 | 18.2 | -5 | -0.38 – 7.26 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.35(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21.37 | 22.5 | 20.4 | 20.71 – 22.04 |
| 2027 | 21.43 | 22.55 | 20.45 | 19.84 – 23.01 |
| 2029 | 21.48 | 22.61 | 20.5 | 19.04 – 23.92 |
| 2034 | 21.61 | 22.8 | 20.57 | 17.13 – 26.09 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.63(2026)· FRED API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.34 | 6.51 | -0.06 | 2.5 – 4.17 |
| 2029 | 2.99 | 8.48 | -2 | 1.49 – 4.49 |
| 2031 | 2.82 | 9.91 | -2 | 0.85 – 4.79 |
| 2036 | 2.68 | 12.71 | -2 | -0.22 – 5.58 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed341.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 340.9m | 357.1m | 326m | 330.4m – 351.5m |
| 2028 | 342.9m | 359.1m | 327.9m | 317.5m – 368.3m |
| 2030 | 344.9m | 361.2m | 329.7m | 305.7m – 384m |
| 2035 | 349.8m | 366.3m | 334.4m | 277.2m – 422.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.37 | 7 | -1.1 | 1.76 – 2.99 |
| 2028 | 3.23 | 11.24 | -2.78 | 2.07 – 4.38 |
| 2030 | 4.08 | 14.43 | -3.68 | 2.46 – 5.7 |
| 2035 | 6.21 | 15 | -4.76 | 3.39 – 9.04 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed243.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 250.1bn | 322.4bn | 177.7bn | 235bn – 265.1bn |
| 2028 | 269.7bn | 395bn | 144.3bn | 237.5bn – 301.8bn |
| 2030 | 289.3bn | 451.1bn | 127.5bn | 241.4bn – 337.2bn |
| 2035 | 338.3bn | 567.1bn | 109.5bn | 249.1bn – 427.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.53 | 3.21 | 1.85 | 2.39 – 2.67 |
| 2028 | 2.17 | 3.34 | 0.99 | 1.88 – 2.45 |
| 2030 | 1.99 | 3.5 | 0.47 | 1.6 – 2.38 |
| 2035 | 1.84 | 3.99 | 0 | 1.22 – 2.47 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5T | 1.8T | 1.2T | 1.5T – 1.6T |
| 2028 | 1.9T | 2.4T | 1.4T | 1.7T – 2T |
| 2030 | 2.2T | 2.9T | 1.6T | 1.9T – 2.5T |
| 2035 | 3.1T | 4T | 2.2T | 2.4T – 3.7T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.53 | 5.92 | 1.15 | 3.11 – 3.95 |
| 2028 | 2.2 | 6.34 | 0 | 1.46 – 2.94 |
| 2030 | 0.87 | 6.21 | 0 | 0 – 1.77 |
| 2035 | 0 | 7.55 | 0 | 0 – 1.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/USA · API docs
