Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
UVK: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 45/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 8 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.73 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.10, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.20) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive; realized ±0.2311 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
UVK: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-9.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.55 | -5.6 | -11.5 | -9.29 – -7.81 |
| 2028 | -9.06 | -3.95 | -14.17 | -10.53 – -7.58 |
| 2030 | -9.56 | -2.96 | -16.16 | -11.67 – -7.45 |
| 2035 | -10.82 | -1.49 | -20.15 | -14.46 – -7.19 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.2bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.1bn | 14.6bn | 11.9bn | 12.7bn – 13.5bn |
| 2028 | 14.9bn | 17.3bn | 12.7bn | 13.8bn – 16bn |
| 2030 | 16.6bn | 19.8bn | 13.9bn | 14.7bn – 18.5bn |
| 2035 | 20.9bn | 25.4bn | 17.1bn | 16.6bn – 25.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.73 | 12 | -9.95 | 1.04 – 6.42 |
| 2028 | 3.99 | 12 | -10 | -0.76 – 8.73 |
| 2030 | 4.24 | 12 | -10 | -1.98 – 10.46 |
| 2035 | 4.88 | 12 | -10 | -4.22 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.9k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.3k | 9.4k | 7.5k | 8.1k – 8.6k |
| 2028 | 9.7k | 11.5k | 8.2k | 9k – 10.4k |
| 2030 | 11.1k | 13.4k | 9.1k | 9.8k – 12.3k |
| 2035 | 14.5k | 17.7k | 11.7k | 11.5k – 17.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.83 | 22.53 | 12.42 | 16.83 – 18.84 |
| 2028 | 18.5 | 26.63 | 9.12 | 16.36 – 20.64 |
| 2030 | 19.16 | 29.66 | 7.06 | 16.02 – 22.31 |
| 2035 | 20.83 | 35.67 | 3.7 | 15.21 – 26.44 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.22 | 15.72 | -5 | 2.81 – 7.63 |
| 2028 | 8.44 | 26.63 | -5 | 4 – 12.88 |
| 2030 | 11.66 | 35.15 | -5 | 5.52 – 17.8 |
| 2035 | 19.71 | 50 | -5 | 9.19 – 30.23 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6m | 1.7m | 1.5m | 1.6m – 1.7m |
| 2028 | 1.6m | 1.8m | 1.5m | 1.5m – 1.7m |
| 2030 | 1.6m | 1.9m | 1.4m | 1.5m – 1.8m |
| 2035 | 1.7m | 2m | 1.4m | 1.3m – 2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.8(2024)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.14 | 13.52 | 0.77 | 6.05 – 8.23 |
| 2027 | 0 | 11.04 | 0 | 0 – 1.74 |
| 2029 | 0 | 14.25 | 0 | 0 – 2.26 |
| 2034 | 0 | 20.15 | 0 | 0 – 3.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/UVK · API docs
