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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

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World/Briefs/UVK

Intelligence brief

UVK — intelligence brief

The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, and the business-cycle regime. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; nothing here is a forecast, and an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

Brief

What the data says

Observed macro, derived sentiment, and the business-cycle regime — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.

Full briefledger ca5c236

UVK: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 53/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 8 observed macro indicators held.

Macro sentiment

Macro pressure

Derived
Watch
53/ 100

Higher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).

ⓘ How this score works
Confidence: 90%

Business-cycle regime

DerivedRegime inputsas of 2026

Slowdown

growth 3.3%momentum -0.30confidence: high
Turning-point signals
  • Unemployment is at an extreme (-2.1σ vs its own history).

Latest observations

Observed2 indicators omitted (not covered)

as of 2026-01-01

Current account balance to GDPObserved
-10.5%

IMF DataMapper API

as of 2026-01-01

Gross domestic product, current US dollarsObserved
$14.1bn

IMF DataMapper API

as of 2026-01-01

GDP per capita, current US dollarsObserved
$9k

IMF DataMapper API

as of 2026-01-01

Real GDP growthObserved
3.3%

IMF DataMapper API

as of 2026-01-01

General government debt to GDPObserved
18.7%

IMF DataMapper API

as of 2026-01-01

Consumer price inflationObserved
5.9%

IMF DataMapper API

as of 2026-01-01

Total populationObserved
1.6m

IMF DataMapper API

as of 2023-01-01

Unemployment rateObserved
10.9%

IMF DataMapper API

Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/UVK · API docs