Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
UVK: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 53/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 8 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.58 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.26) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
UVK: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2031, 2033, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-10.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -11 | -8.57 | -13.44 | -11.68 – -10.33 |
| 2029 | -12.01 | -7.8 | -16.23 | -13.45 – -10.58 |
| 2031 | -13.02 | -7.58 | -18.47 | -15.18 – -10.87 |
| 2036 | -15.55 | -7.85 | -23.25 | -19.61 – -11.49 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.1bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.9bn | 16.3bn | 13.6bn | 14.4bn – 15.4bn |
| 2029 | 17bn | 19.5bn | 14.9bn | 15.8bn – 18.3bn |
| 2031 | 19.2bn | 22.4bn | 16.4bn | 17bn – 21.3bn |
| 2036 | 24.5bn | 29.1bn | 20.5bn | 19.4bn – 29.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.58 | 7.84 | -1.98 | 1.66 – 3.5 |
| 2029 | 0.94 | 10.05 | -6.96 | -0.63 – 2.5 |
| 2031 | -0.71 | 11.06 | -10 | -2.75 – 1.33 |
| 2036 | -4.82 | 11.82 | -10 | -8.36 – -1.27 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.5k | 10.6k | 8.6k | 9.2k – 9.8k |
| 2029 | 11k | 12.8k | 9.5k | 10.2k – 11.9k |
| 2031 | 12.5k | 14.8k | 10.5k | 11.1k – 14k |
| 2036 | 16.3k | 19.6k | 13.5k | 12.9k – 19.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.73 | 23.36 | 13.4 | 17.72 – 19.75 |
| 2029 | 18.8 | 26.81 | 9.56 | 16.67 – 20.94 |
| 2031 | 18.87 | 29.21 | 6.94 | 15.77 – 21.97 |
| 2036 | 19.05 | 33.67 | 2.18 | 13.75 – 24.34 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.62 | 17.07 | -4.58 | 4.19 – 9.04 |
| 2029 | 9.42 | 27.52 | -5 | 4.95 – 13.88 |
| 2031 | 12.22 | 35.59 | -5 | 6.06 – 18.38 |
| 2036 | 19.22 | 50 | -5 | 8.81 – 29.62 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.6m | 1.7m | 1.5m | 1.5m – 1.6m |
| 2029 | 1.6m | 1.7m | 1.4m | 1.5m – 1.7m |
| 2031 | 1.6m | 1.8m | 1.4m | 1.4m – 1.7m |
| 2036 | 1.5m | 1.8m | 1.3m | 1.2m – 1.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.9(2023)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6.97 | 12.69 | 1.26 | 5.99 – 7.96 |
| 2026 | 0 | 9.9 | 0 | 0 – 1.56 |
| 2028 | 0 | 12.78 | 0 | 0 – 2.04 |
| 2033 | 0 | 18.07 | 0 | 0 – 2.93 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/UVK · API docs
