Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Uzbekistan: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 31/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 6.43 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.38, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.36) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-2% skill vs naive; realized ±3.1376 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Uzbekistan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.99 | 3.87 | -5.85 | -2 – 0.02 |
| 2029 | -0.37 | 8.05 | -8.79 | -2.13 – 1.4 |
| 2031 | 0.25 | 11.12 | -10.61 | -2.04 – 2.55 |
| 2036 | 1.81 | 17.18 | -13.56 | -1.62 – 5.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.89 | 25.63 | 18.66 | 21.01 – 22.78 |
| 2028 | 21.61 | 28.08 | 16 | 19.65 – 23.57 |
| 2030 | 21.33 | 29.68 | 14.09 | 18.43 – 24.23 |
| 2035 | 20.62 | 32.44 | 10.38 | 15.63 – 25.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed147bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 198.2bn | 219.7bn | 179.5bn | 192.1bn – 204.3bn |
| 2029 | 240.3bn | 277.6bn | 207.9bn | 222.5bn – 258bn |
| 2031 | 282.3bn | 330.5bn | 240.6bn | 250.3bn – 314.4bn |
| 2036 | 387.5bn | 455.7bn | 328.5bn | 307.1bn – 467.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.43 | 8.84 | 4.35 | 5.93 – 6.94 |
| 2029 | 6.25 | 10.42 | 2.64 | 5.26 – 7.25 |
| 2031 | 6.07 | 11.46 | 1.4 | 4.69 – 7.45 |
| 2036 | 5.62 | 12 | -0.98 | 3.45 – 7.78 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5k | 5.5k | 4.6k | 4.9k – 5.2k |
| 2029 | 6k | 6.8k | 5.3k | 5.5k – 6.4k |
| 2031 | 6.9k | 8k | 6k | 6.1k – 7.7k |
| 2036 | 9.3k | 10.8k | 8k | 7.4k – 11.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28.73 | 35.3 | 21.16 | 27.26 – 30.2 |
| 2029 | 31.2 | 42.57 | 18.09 | 27.95 – 34.45 |
| 2031 | 33.67 | 48.34 | 16.74 | 28.72 – 38.62 |
| 2036 | 39.83 | 60.58 | 15.89 | 30.27 – 49.4 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.31 | 41.3 | 29.32 | 33.83 – 36.79 |
| 2028 | 35.2 | 45.58 | 24.82 | 31.92 – 38.48 |
| 2030 | 35.09 | 48.49 | 21.69 | 30.23 – 39.95 |
| 2035 | 34.81 | 53.76 | 15.86 | 26.34 – 43.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.38 | 8.11 | 4.52 | 5.89 – 6.86 |
| 2029 | 3.86 | 6.86 | 0.65 | 3.01 – 4.71 |
| 2031 | 1.35 | 5.22 | -2.8 | 0.38 – 2.31 |
| 2036 | -4.94 | 0.54 | -5 | -5 – -2.94 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.27 | 42.75 | 28.78 | 33.64 – 36.9 |
| 2028 | 38.06 | 51.03 | 26.83 | 34.38 – 41.74 |
| 2030 | 40.85 | 57.59 | 26.35 | 35.19 – 46.51 |
| 2035 | 47.84 | 70 | 27.32 | 36.8 – 58.87 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 38.9m | 40.7m | 37.2m | 37.7m – 40.1m |
| 2029 | 41m | 42.9m | 39.2m | 37.9m – 44m |
| 2031 | 43m | 45.1m | 41.1m | 38.1m – 47.9m |
| 2036 | 48.2m | 50.6m | 46.1m | 38.2m – 58.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.55 | 14.64 | 2.24 | 6.55 – 8.56 |
| 2028 | 9.86 | 15 | 0.65 | 7.85 – 11.87 |
| 2030 | 12.17 | 15 | 0.28 | 9.21 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -1.81 | 9.8 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8bn | 10.8bn | 5.3bn | 7.5bn – 8.6bn |
| 2027 | 5.4bn | 10.1bn | 734.6m | 4.5bn – 6.4bn |
| 2029 | 2.8bn | 8.9bn | 0 | 1.7bn – 4bn |
| 2034 | 0 | 8.6bn | 0 | 0 – 1.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.28(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11.53 | 17.34 | 5.71 | 10.45 – 12.6 |
| 2027 | 13.01 | 23.08 | 2.94 | 10.84 – 15.18 |
| 2029 | 13.74 | 26.74 | 0.74 | 10.65 – 16.83 |
| 2034 | 14.32 | 32.71 | 0 | 9.21 – 19.42 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.2bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 42.5bn | 48.1bn | 36.8bn | 40.9bn – 44bn |
| 2027 | 45.8bn | 55.7bn | 36bn | 42.1bn – 49.6bn |
| 2029 | 49.2bn | 62bn | 36.5bn | 43.3bn – 55.1bn |
| 2034 | 57.7bn | 75.7bn | 39.7bn | 45.7bn – 69.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.16 | 4.91 | 3.41 | 3.98 – 4.34 |
| 2029 | 3.89 | 5.19 | 2.58 | 3.5 – 4.27 |
| 2031 | 3.61 | 5.29 | 1.93 | 3.07 – 4.16 |
| 2036 | 2.92 | 5.3 | 0.55 | 2.09 – 3.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/UZB · API docs
