Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Uzbekistan: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 36/100); the economy is in expansion; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 8.32 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.28, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.24) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-1% skill vs naive; realized ±0.5201 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Uzbekistan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-5.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.8 | 0.81 | -8.41 | -4.8 – -2.8 |
| 2028 | -3.6 | 4.38 | -11.58 | -5.4 – -1.8 |
| 2030 | -3.39 | 6.91 | -13.69 | -5.77 – -1.02 |
| 2035 | -2.89 | 11.68 | -17.46 | -6.32 – 0.55 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.89 | 25.63 | 18.66 | 21.01 – 22.78 |
| 2028 | 21.61 | 28.08 | 16 | 19.65 – 23.57 |
| 2030 | 21.33 | 29.68 | 14.09 | 18.43 – 24.23 |
| 2035 | 20.62 | 32.44 | 10.38 | 15.63 – 25.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed147bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 158.9bn | 173.7bn | 146bn | 153.9bn – 163.8bn |
| 2028 | 188.9bn | 214.5bn | 166.6bn | 174.9bn – 202.8bn |
| 2030 | 218.9bn | 252bn | 190.1bn | 194bn – 243.7bn |
| 2035 | 293.8bn | 340.7bn | 253.2bn | 232.9bn – 354.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.32 | 12 | 3.07 | 7.18 – 9.46 |
| 2028 | 9.74 | 12 | 0.64 | 7.53 – 11.96 |
| 2030 | 11.17 | 12 | -0.58 | 8.01 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -4.61 | 6.89 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.2k | 4.6k | 3.9k | 4.1k – 4.4k |
| 2028 | 5k | 5.6k | 4.4k | 4.6k – 5.3k |
| 2030 | 5.7k | 6.5k | 4.9k | 5k – 6.3k |
| 2035 | 7.5k | 8.7k | 6.4k | 5.9k – 9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.85 | 38.95 | 21.5 | 29.11 – 32.59 |
| 2028 | 35.34 | 49.38 | 19.14 | 31.49 – 39.2 |
| 2030 | 39.84 | 57.96 | 18.93 | 33.86 – 45.81 |
| 2035 | 51.07 | 76.7 | 21.5 | 38.96 – 63.19 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.31 | 41.3 | 29.32 | 33.83 – 36.79 |
| 2028 | 35.2 | 45.58 | 24.82 | 31.92 – 38.48 |
| 2030 | 35.09 | 48.49 | 21.69 | 30.23 – 39.95 |
| 2035 | 34.81 | 53.76 | 15.86 | 26.34 – 43.28 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.53 | 10.38 | 6.56 | 7.99 – 9.08 |
| 2028 | 7.37 | 10.57 | 3.94 | 6.31 – 8.43 |
| 2030 | 6.2 | 10.33 | 1.78 | 4.79 – 7.62 |
| 2035 | 3.29 | 9.13 | -2.96 | 1.47 – 5.11 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.27 | 42.75 | 28.78 | 33.64 – 36.9 |
| 2028 | 38.06 | 51.03 | 26.83 | 34.38 – 41.74 |
| 2030 | 40.85 | 57.59 | 26.35 | 35.19 – 46.51 |
| 2035 | 47.84 | 70 | 27.32 | 36.8 – 58.87 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.9m | 38.6m | 35.2m | 35.7m – 38m |
| 2028 | 37.6m | 39.4m | 36m | 34.8m – 40.4m |
| 2030 | 38.4m | 40.2m | 36.7m | 34m – 42.7m |
| 2035 | 40.3m | 42.2m | 38.5m | 31.9m – 48.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.55 | 14.64 | 2.24 | 6.55 – 8.56 |
| 2028 | 9.86 | 15 | 0.65 | 7.85 – 11.87 |
| 2030 | 12.17 | 15 | 0.28 | 9.21 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -1.81 | 9.8 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.8bn | 13.9bn | 7.6bn | 10.1bn – 11.4bn |
| 2028 | 9.7bn | 15.2bn | 4.2bn | 8.4bn – 11bn |
| 2030 | 8.7bn | 15.8bn | 1.6bn | 6.9bn – 10.5bn |
| 2035 | 6.1bn | 16.1bn | 0 | 3.6bn – 8.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.68 | 20.01 | 7.35 | 12.49 – 14.87 |
| 2028 | 13.78 | 24.74 | 2.82 | 11.45 – 16.12 |
| 2030 | 13.84 | 27.98 | 0 | 10.56 – 17.11 |
| 2035 | 13.88 | 33.89 | 0 | 8.59 – 19.16 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.8bn | 88bn | 55.5bn | 68.1bn – 75.4bn |
| 2028 | 86.6bn | 114.8bn | 58.5bn | 78.2bn – 95.1bn |
| 2030 | 101.5bn | 137.8bn | 65.2bn | 87.8bn – 115.2bn |
| 2035 | 138.6bn | 190bn | 87.3bn | 108.6bn – 168.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.45 | 5.22 | 3.68 | 4.26 – 4.64 |
| 2028 | 4.09 | 5.43 | 2.76 | 3.69 – 4.5 |
| 2030 | 3.74 | 5.47 | 2.02 | 3.18 – 4.31 |
| 2035 | 2.86 | 5.3 | 0.43 | 2.03 – 3.7 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/UZB · API docs
