Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 51/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.23 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.00) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±0.9336 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-17.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -17.83 | -4.86 | -30 | -20.77 – -14.9 |
| 2028 | -20.7 | 1.78 | -30 | -26.28 – -15.12 |
| 2030 | -23.57 | 5.45 | -30 | -30 – -15.76 |
| 2035 | -30 | 11.04 | -30 | -30 – -16.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.2bn | 1.3bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.6bn |
| 2030 | 1.6bn | 1.8bn | 1.4bn | 1.4bn – 1.8bn |
| 2035 | 2bn | 2.3bn | 1.7bn | 1.6bn – 2.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.23 | 8.93 | -1.7 | 2.23 – 4.23 |
| 2028 | 3.04 | 12 | -5.5 | 1.25 – 4.83 |
| 2030 | 2.85 | 12 | -8.18 | 0.5 – 5.2 |
| 2035 | 2.37 | 12 | -10 | -1.01 – 5.75 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.2k | 14.2k | 12.3k | 12.8k – 13.6k |
| 2028 | 14.8k | 16.6k | 13.2k | 13.7k – 15.9k |
| 2030 | 16.4k | 18.8k | 14.4k | 14.5k – 18.3k |
| 2035 | 20.4k | 23.8k | 17.6k | 16.2k – 24.7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed111.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 111.81 | 123.53 | 98.29 | 108.22 – 115.4 |
| 2028 | 120.03 | 140.33 | 96.6 | 111.14 – 128.91 |
| 2030 | 128.24 | 154.45 | 98 | 113.68 – 142.8 |
| 2035 | 148.78 | 185.85 | 106.02 | 117.92 – 179.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.23 | 4.83 | -5 | -1.37 – 0.9 |
| 2028 | -4.17 | 4.6 | -5 | -5 – -2.03 |
| 2030 | -5 | 6.32 | -5 | -5 – -2.09 |
| 2035 | -5 | 11.02 | -5 | -5 – -0.65 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 100.1k | 104.8k | 95.7k | 97k – 103.2k |
| 2028 | 99.4k | 104.1k | 95k | 92k – 106.7k |
| 2030 | 98.6k | 103.3k | 94.3k | 87.4k – 109.8k |
| 2035 | 96.7k | 101.3k | 92.5k | 76.6k – 116.8k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.25 | 8.38 | 1.16 | 3.67 – 4.84 |
| 2028 | 5.67 | 12.83 | 0.31 | 4.51 – 6.84 |
| 2030 | 7.09 | 15 | 0.17 | 5.37 – 8.81 |
| 2035 | 10.64 | 15 | 0.85 | 7.31 – 13.97 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed281.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 282.9m | 372.2m | 193.6m | 264.7m – 301.1m |
| 2028 | 288.7m | 443.4m | 134.1m | 251.2m – 326.3m |
| 2030 | 294.6m | 494.3m | 94.9m | 240.5m – 348.8m |
| 2035 | 309.3m | 591.7m | 26.9m | 216.6m – 402m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.03 | 7.13 | 2.94 | 4.63 – 5.44 |
| 2028 | 5.38 | 9 | 1.75 | 4.56 – 6.19 |
| 2030 | 5.55 | 10.23 | 0.86 | 4.39 – 6.71 |
| 2035 | 5.68 | 12.3 | 0 | 3.76 – 7.6 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed281.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 282.9m | 372.2m | 193.6m | 264.7m – 301.1m |
| 2028 | 288.7m | 443.4m | 134.1m | 251.2m – 326.3m |
| 2030 | 294.6m | 494.3m | 94.9m | 240.5m – 348.8m |
| 2035 | 309.3m | 591.7m | 26.9m | 216.6m – 402m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.41 | 18.26 | 16.55 | 16.87 – 17.95 |
| 2028 | 16.21 | 17.57 | 14.86 | 15.01 – 17.41 |
| 2030 | 15.02 | 16.77 | 13.28 | 13.31 – 16.73 |
| 2035 | 12.04 | 14.51 | 9.57 | 9.54 – 14.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/VCT · API docs
