Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 57/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 14 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.74 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.14, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.12) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±4.528 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-19.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -21.26 | -10.38 | -30 | -23.82 – -18.7 |
| 2029 | -24.18 | -5.33 | -30 | -29.19 – -19.17 |
| 2031 | -27.1 | -2.77 | -30 | -30 – -19.97 |
| 2036 | -30 | 4.42 | -30 | -30 – -18.18 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.2bn | 1.2bn – 1.3bn |
| 2029 | 1.4bn | 1.6bn | 1.2bn | 1.3bn – 1.5bn |
| 2031 | 1.5bn | 1.8bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.7bn |
| 2036 | 1.8bn | 2.2bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn – 2.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.74 | 5.4 | 0.44 | 2.26 – 3.23 |
| 2029 | 2.17 | 6.77 | -1.81 | 1.3 – 3.05 |
| 2031 | 1.61 | 7.54 | -3.54 | 0.49 – 2.72 |
| 2036 | 0.18 | 8.57 | -7.09 | -1.38 – 1.74 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11.4k | 13.3k | 9.8k | 11k – 11.8k |
| 2029 | 12.2k | 15.4k | 9.4k | 11.2k – 13.2k |
| 2031 | 13k | 17.1k | 9.4k | 11.4k – 14.5k |
| 2036 | 14.9k | 20.8k | 9.8k | 11.8k – 18k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed120.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 125.96 | 135.46 | 115 | 122.06 – 129.87 |
| 2029 | 137.69 | 154.15 | 118.69 | 127.5 – 147.87 |
| 2031 | 149.41 | 170.66 | 124.89 | 132.45 – 166.37 |
| 2036 | 178.72 | 208.77 | 144.04 | 141.65 – 215.79 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.21 | 5.89 | -3.81 | 0.15 – 2.27 |
| 2029 | 1.33 | 9.44 | -5 | -0.53 – 3.19 |
| 2031 | 1.45 | 11.92 | -5 | -0.99 – 3.89 |
| 2036 | 1.74 | 16.55 | -5 | -1.82 – 5.31 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 112.4k | 119.4k | 105.9k | 108.9k – 115.8k |
| 2029 | 124.5k | 136.7k | 113.3k | 115.3k – 133.8k |
| 2031 | 136.7k | 152.4k | 122.2k | 121.2k – 152.3k |
| 2036 | 167.2k | 189.3k | 146.6k | 132.5k – 201.9k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.25 | 8.38 | 1.16 | 3.67 – 4.84 |
| 2028 | 5.67 | 12.83 | 0.31 | 4.51 – 6.84 |
| 2030 | 7.09 | 15 | 0.17 | 5.37 – 8.81 |
| 2035 | 10.64 | 15 | 0.85 | 7.31 – 13.97 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed281.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 282.9m | 372.2m | 193.6m | 264.7m – 301.1m |
| 2028 | 288.7m | 443.4m | 134.1m | 251.2m – 326.3m |
| 2030 | 294.6m | 494.3m | 94.9m | 240.5m – 348.8m |
| 2035 | 309.3m | 591.7m | 26.9m | 216.6m – 402m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.03 | 7.13 | 2.94 | 4.63 – 5.44 |
| 2028 | 5.38 | 9 | 1.75 | 4.56 – 6.19 |
| 2030 | 5.55 | 10.23 | 0.86 | 4.39 – 6.71 |
| 2035 | 5.68 | 12.3 | 0 | 3.76 – 7.6 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed281.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 282.9m | 372.2m | 193.6m | 264.7m – 301.1m |
| 2028 | 288.7m | 443.4m | 134.1m | 251.2m – 326.3m |
| 2030 | 294.6m | 494.3m | 94.9m | 240.5m – 348.8m |
| 2035 | 309.3m | 591.7m | 26.9m | 216.6m – 402m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.41 | 18.26 | 16.55 | 16.87 – 17.95 |
| 2028 | 16.21 | 17.57 | 14.86 | 15.01 – 17.41 |
| 2030 | 15.02 | 16.77 | 13.28 | 13.31 – 16.73 |
| 2035 | 12.04 | 14.51 | 9.57 | 9.54 – 14.53 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/VCT · API docs
