Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Venezuela: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 47/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 18 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.51 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment -0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2016-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2017-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2016-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2017-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-2% skill vs naive; realized ±9.8153 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Venezuela: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed7.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.75 | 16.53 | -1.04 | 5.83 – 9.66 |
| 2029 | 9.04 | 24.25 | -6.18 | 5.5 – 12.57 |
| 2031 | 10.33 | 29.96 | -9.31 | 5.49 – 15.16 |
| 2036 | 13.55 | 30 | -14.22 | 5.72 – 21.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.98 | 37.26 | 0 | 7.05 – 14.91 |
| 2028 | 3.13 | 48.64 | 0 | 0 – 9.78 |
| 2030 | 0 | 58.76 | 0 | 0 – 8.47 |
| 2035 | 0 | 83.09 | 0 | 0 – 12.03 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 113.8bn | 157.4bn | 76bn | 106.8bn – 120.8bn |
| 2029 | 121.7bn | 197.3bn | 56.2bn | 106.9bn – 136.6bn |
| 2031 | 129.6bn | 227.2bn | 45.1bn | 107.6bn – 151.6bn |
| 2036 | 149.4bn | 287.4bn | 29.8bn | 109.1bn – 189.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.51 | 12 | -4.35 | 1.94 – 5.08 |
| 2029 | 2.54 | 12 | -10 | -0.2 – 5.29 |
| 2031 | 1.57 | 12 | -10 | -1.94 – 5.08 |
| 2036 | -0.85 | 12 | -10 | -5.8 – 4.09 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.3k | 5.8k | 2.9k | 4k – 4.5k |
| 2029 | 4.6k | 7.3k | 2.3k | 4.1k – 5.2k |
| 2031 | 5k | 8.5k | 2k | 4.2k – 5.8k |
| 2036 | 6k | 10.9k | 1.7k | 4.4k – 7.5k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed308.7(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 300 | 300 | 139.69 | 273.83 – 300 |
| 2028 | 300 | 300 | 22.34 | 248.58 – 300 |
| 2030 | 300 | 300 | 0 | 228.21 – 300 |
| 2035 | 300 | 300 | 0 | 184.41 – 300 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.72 | 12.53 | 6.91 | 9.14 – 10.31 |
| 2028 | 8.95 | 13.82 | 4.08 | 7.77 – 10.12 |
| 2030 | 8.17 | 14.46 | 1.89 | 6.56 – 9.79 |
| 2035 | 6.24 | 15.13 | 0 | 3.88 – 8.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed254.95(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 50 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2029 | 50 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2031 | 50 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2036 | 50 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.42 | 6.54 | 2.58 | 4.04 – 4.79 |
| 2028 | 4 | 7.67 | 0.81 | 3.28 – 4.71 |
| 2030 | 3.58 | 8.32 | 0 | 2.61 – 4.54 |
| 2035 | 2.53 | 9.24 | 0 | 1.17 – 3.89 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 26.7m | 28m | 25.5m | 25.9m – 27.5m |
| 2029 | 24.9m | 26.7m | 23.2m | 23.1m – 26.7m |
| 2031 | 23.1m | 25.5m | 20.9m | 20.5m – 25.7m |
| 2036 | 18.6m | 22m | 15.5m | 14.8m – 22.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3bn(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 1.8bn | 5.4bn | 0 | 1.2bn – 2.4bn |
| 2020 | 0 | 6.2bn | 0 | 0 – 948.6m |
| 2022 | 0 | 8bn | 0 | 0 – 1.2bn |
| 2027 | 0 | 11.3bn | 0 | 0 – 1.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.65(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 3.95 | 5.47 | 2.42 | 3.65 – 4.24 |
| 2019 | 4.29 | 6.93 | 1.65 | 3.68 – 4.9 |
| 2021 | 4.46 | 7.87 | 1.06 | 3.59 – 5.34 |
| 2026 | 4.6 | 9.42 | 0 | 3.13 – 6.07 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.8bn(2017)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 6.7bn | 14.1bn | 0 | 5.5bn – 8bn |
| 2020 | 0 | 12.8bn | 0 | 0 – 2bn |
| 2022 | 0 | 16.5bn | 0 | 0 – 2.5bn |
| 2027 | 0 | 23.3bn | 0 | 0 – 3.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.84 | 5.81 | 3.86 | 4.61 – 5.06 |
| 2028 | 3.9 | 5.58 | 2.21 | 3.45 – 4.34 |
| 2030 | 2.95 | 5.13 | 0.77 | 2.38 – 3.52 |
| 2035 | 0.6 | 3.68 | 0 | 0 – 1.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/VEN · API docs
