Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Virgin Islands (U.S.): macro conditions look stressed (pressure 88/100); the economy is in contraction; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 9 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -1.12 for 2023.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as stressed (sentiment -0.76, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2023: stressed (projected sentiment -0.60) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+3% skill vs naive; realized ±6.4584 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Virgin Islands (U.S.): forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed97.37(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 103.71 | 147.1 | 66.11 | 95.86 – 111.57 |
| 2025 | 116.41 | 150 | 51.28 | 100.09 – 132.73 |
| 2027 | 129.1 | 150 | 45.02 | 104.92 – 150 |
| 2032 | 150 | 150 | 31.09 | 106.4 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.7bn(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4.8bn | 5.1bn | 4.6bn | 4.7bn – 5bn |
| 2025 | 5.2bn | 5.4bn | 4.9bn | 4.8bn – 5.5bn |
| 2027 | 5.5bn | 5.9bn | 5.2bn | 4.9bn – 6.1bn |
| 2032 | 6.4bn | 6.9bn | 5.9bn | 5.1bn – 7.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.31(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -1.12 | 7.33 | -8.44 | -2.55 – 0.31 |
| 2025 | -0.97 | 12 | -10 | -3.46 – 1.51 |
| 2027 | -0.83 | 12 | -10 | -4.06 – 2.4 |
| 2032 | -0.47 | 12 | -10 | -5.08 – 4.14 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.3k(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 45.7k | 48.1k | 43.6k | 44.3k – 47.1k |
| 2025 | 49.3k | 52.1k | 46.8k | 45.6k – 52.9k |
| 2027 | 52.8k | 56.5k | 49.6k | 46.8k – 58.8k |
| 2032 | 61.6k | 66.8k | 57.2k | 48.9k – 74.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed108.26(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 114.35 | 148.08 | 80.63 | 107.36 – 121.35 |
| 2025 | 126.54 | 150 | 68.13 | 111.53 – 141.55 |
| 2027 | 138.72 | 150 | 63.32 | 116.08 – 150 |
| 2032 | 150 | 150 | 43.37 | 109.68 – 150 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed103.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 103.9k | 108.8k | 99.4k | 100.7k – 107.1k |
| 2028 | 103.3k | 108.2k | 98.7k | 95.6k – 110.9k |
| 2030 | 102.6k | 107.5k | 98.1k | 91k – 114.3k |
| 2035 | 101k | 105.8k | 96.6k | 80.1k – 122k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-4.17(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | -6.03 | 8.01 | -10 | -7.88 – -4.17 |
| 2025 | -10 | 14.31 | -10 | -10 – -6.48 |
| 2027 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -5.28 |
| 2032 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -2.85 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.83 | 11.93 | 9.73 | 10.48 – 11.17 |
| 2028 | 9.59 | 11.5 | 7.69 | 8.84 – 10.34 |
| 2030 | 8.36 | 10.82 | 5.9 | 7.31 – 9.4 |
| 2035 | 5.27 | 8.75 | 1.79 | 3.89 – 6.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/VIR · API docs
