Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Vietnam: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 27/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 7.33 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.46, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: supportive (projected sentiment +0.54) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±4.3835 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Vietnam: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed5.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.95 | 12.89 | -0.98 | 4.44 – 7.47 |
| 2029 | 7.26 | 19.28 | -4.75 | 4.46 – 10.06 |
| 2031 | 8.57 | 24.08 | -6.93 | 4.72 – 12.42 |
| 2036 | 11.85 | 30 | -10.08 | 5.48 – 18.22 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 99.77 | 110.58 | 90.41 | 96.63 – 102.91 |
| 2028 | 102.83 | 121.55 | 86.61 | 95.22 – 110.44 |
| 2030 | 105.89 | 130.05 | 84.95 | 93.87 – 117.91 |
| 2035 | 113.53 | 147.71 | 83.92 | 89.98 – 137.08 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed514.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 552.5bn | 581.5bn | 527.3bn | 535.3bn – 569.6bn |
| 2029 | 614.9bn | 664.2bn | 572.1bn | 569.4bn – 660.4bn |
| 2031 | 677.3bn | 741bn | 622.1bn | 600.4bn – 754.3bn |
| 2036 | 833.5bn | 923.5bn | 755.4bn | 660.6bn – 1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.33 | 12 | 1.55 | 6.1 – 8.56 |
| 2029 | 7.87 | 12 | -2.14 | 5.57 – 10.17 |
| 2031 | 8.41 | 12 | -4.51 | 5.26 – 11.57 |
| 2036 | 9.77 | 12 | -8.5 | 4.69 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.3k | 5.6k | 5.1k | 5.2k – 5.5k |
| 2029 | 5.9k | 6.4k | 5.4k | 5.4k – 6.3k |
| 2031 | 6.4k | 7.1k | 5.8k | 5.7k – 7.1k |
| 2036 | 7.8k | 8.7k | 6.9k | 6.2k – 9.4k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 27.86 | 30.46 | 24.86 | 27 – 28.72 |
| 2029 | 23.98 | 28.48 | 18.79 | 22.14 – 25.83 |
| 2031 | 20.1 | 25.91 | 13.4 | 17.6 – 22.61 |
| 2036 | 10.41 | 18.62 | 0.93 | 7.48 – 13.33 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 93.27 | 108.4 | 78.14 | 89.46 – 97.08 |
| 2028 | 95.63 | 121.83 | 69.42 | 87.02 – 104.23 |
| 2030 | 97.98 | 131.81 | 64.16 | 84.96 – 111 |
| 2035 | 103.87 | 150 | 56.03 | 79.93 – 127.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.55 | 7.02 | 3.97 | 5.13 – 5.97 |
| 2029 | 7.78 | 10.33 | 5.04 | 6.84 – 8.72 |
| 2031 | 10 | 13.3 | 6.47 | 8.47 – 11.53 |
| 2036 | 15.57 | 20.23 | 10.57 | 12.04 – 19.09 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.9 | 30.42 | 27.59 | 28 – 29.8 |
| 2028 | 28.17 | 30.12 | 26.48 | 26.08 – 30.25 |
| 2030 | 27.43 | 29.95 | 25.25 | 24.32 – 30.55 |
| 2035 | 25.6 | 29.16 | 22.51 | 20.29 – 30.91 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed101.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 103m | 107.9m | 98.5m | 99.8m – 106.2m |
| 2029 | 104.6m | 109.6m | 100m | 96.9m – 112.4m |
| 2031 | 106.2m | 111.3m | 101.6m | 94.2m – 118.3m |
| 2036 | 110.3m | 115.5m | 105.5m | 87.4m – 133.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.61 | 12.19 | 4.17 | 6.91 – 8.3 |
| 2028 | 8.45 | 15 | 2.5 | 7.05 – 9.84 |
| 2030 | 9.29 | 15 | 1.61 | 7.26 – 11.31 |
| 2035 | 11.38 | 15 | 0.53 | 7.75 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.8bn | 114.7bn | 56.9bn | 80bn – 91.6bn |
| 2028 | 86.3bn | 136.4bn | 36.3bn | 74.5bn – 98.1bn |
| 2030 | 86.8bn | 151.4bn | 22.2bn | 70bn – 103.7bn |
| 2035 | 88.1bn | 179.5bn | 0 | 60bn – 116.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.37(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.51 | 3.63 | 1.38 | 2.29 – 2.72 |
| 2027 | 2.66 | 4.61 | 0.72 | 2.24 – 3.09 |
| 2029 | 2.74 | 5.25 | 0.23 | 2.14 – 3.34 |
| 2034 | 2.8 | 6.35 | 0 | 1.81 – 3.79 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.8bn | 114.7bn | 56.9bn | 80bn – 91.6bn |
| 2028 | 86.3bn | 136.4bn | 36.3bn | 74.5bn – 98.1bn |
| 2030 | 86.8bn | 151.4bn | 22.2bn | 70bn – 103.7bn |
| 2035 | 88.1bn | 179.5bn | 0 | 60bn – 116.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.05 | 2.93 | 1.18 | 1.89 – 2.22 |
| 2029 | 1.96 | 3.47 | 0.45 | 1.64 – 2.29 |
| 2031 | 1.87 | 3.82 | 0 | 1.42 – 2.32 |
| 2036 | 1.64 | 4.4 | 0 | 0.96 – 2.33 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/VNM · API docs
