Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Vietnam: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 11/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 9.21 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.78, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.70) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±2.1144 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Vietnam: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed5.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.37 | 14.25 | 0.49 | 5.85 – 8.89 |
| 2028 | 8.71 | 20.64 | -3.21 | 5.86 – 11.57 |
| 2030 | 10.06 | 25.45 | -5.33 | 6.11 – 14 |
| 2035 | 13.41 | 30 | -8.35 | 6.83 – 20 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 99.77 | 110.58 | 90.41 | 96.63 – 102.91 |
| 2028 | 102.83 | 121.55 | 86.61 | 95.22 – 110.44 |
| 2030 | 105.89 | 130.05 | 84.95 | 93.87 – 117.91 |
| 2035 | 113.53 | 147.71 | 83.92 | 89.98 – 137.08 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed514.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 540.2bn | 568.6bn | 515.6bn | 523.5bn – 557bn |
| 2028 | 605.1bn | 649.8bn | 566.4bn | 560.4bn – 649.9bn |
| 2030 | 670bn | 727.6bn | 620.1bn | 593.9bn – 746.1bn |
| 2035 | 832.2bn | 913.7bn | 761.6bn | 659.6bn – 1T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.21 | 12 | 3.55 | 7.98 – 10.45 |
| 2028 | 11.87 | 12 | 2.06 | 9.42 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -0.67 | 8.6 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -5.92 | 6.63 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3k | 5.6k | 5.1k | 5.1k – 5.5k |
| 2028 | 5.9k | 6.3k | 5.5k | 5.4k – 6.3k |
| 2030 | 6.5k | 7k | 6k | 5.7k – 7.2k |
| 2035 | 7.9k | 8.7k | 7.2k | 6.3k – 9.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.28 | 30.76 | 25.41 | 27.4 – 29.15 |
| 2028 | 24.23 | 28.52 | 19.27 | 22.4 – 26.05 |
| 2030 | 20.18 | 25.72 | 13.78 | 17.71 – 22.64 |
| 2035 | 10.05 | 17.9 | 1 | 7.24 – 12.87 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 93.27 | 108.4 | 78.14 | 89.46 – 97.08 |
| 2028 | 95.63 | 121.83 | 69.42 | 87.02 – 104.23 |
| 2030 | 97.98 | 131.81 | 64.16 | 84.96 – 111 |
| 2035 | 103.87 | 150 | 56.03 | 79.93 – 127.81 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.14 | 4.94 | 1.22 | 2.69 – 3.59 |
| 2028 | 2.71 | 5.82 | -0.62 | 1.89 – 3.53 |
| 2030 | 2.27 | 6.28 | -2.03 | 1.2 – 3.34 |
| 2035 | 1.18 | 6.86 | -4.9 | -0.26 – 2.63 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.9 | 30.42 | 27.59 | 28 – 29.8 |
| 2028 | 28.17 | 30.12 | 26.48 | 26.08 – 30.25 |
| 2030 | 27.43 | 29.95 | 25.25 | 24.32 – 30.55 |
| 2035 | 25.6 | 29.16 | 22.51 | 20.29 – 30.91 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed101.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 101.4m | 106.2m | 97m | 98.3m – 104.6m |
| 2028 | 102.1m | 106.9m | 97.6m | 94.5m – 109.6m |
| 2030 | 102.8m | 107.6m | 98.2m | 91.1m – 114.4m |
| 2035 | 104.4m | 109.4m | 99.9m | 82.8m – 126.1m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.61 | 12.19 | 4.17 | 6.91 – 8.3 |
| 2028 | 8.45 | 15 | 2.5 | 7.05 – 9.84 |
| 2030 | 9.29 | 15 | 1.61 | 7.26 – 11.31 |
| 2035 | 11.38 | 15 | 0.53 | 7.75 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.8bn | 114.7bn | 56.9bn | 80bn – 91.6bn |
| 2028 | 86.3bn | 136.4bn | 36.3bn | 74.5bn – 98.1bn |
| 2030 | 86.8bn | 151.4bn | 22.2bn | 70bn – 103.7bn |
| 2035 | 88.1bn | 179.5bn | 0 | 60bn – 116.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.37(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.51 | 3.63 | 1.38 | 2.29 – 2.72 |
| 2027 | 2.66 | 4.61 | 0.72 | 2.24 – 3.09 |
| 2029 | 2.74 | 5.25 | 0.23 | 2.14 – 3.34 |
| 2034 | 2.8 | 6.35 | 0 | 1.81 – 3.79 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 85.8bn | 114.7bn | 56.9bn | 80bn – 91.6bn |
| 2028 | 86.3bn | 136.4bn | 36.3bn | 74.5bn – 98.1bn |
| 2030 | 86.8bn | 151.4bn | 22.2bn | 70bn – 103.7bn |
| 2035 | 88.1bn | 179.5bn | 0 | 60bn – 116.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.38 | 2.1 | 0.65 | 1.24 – 1.51 |
| 2028 | 1.08 | 2.34 | 0 | 0.84 – 1.32 |
| 2030 | 0.78 | 2.41 | 0 | 0.46 – 1.11 |
| 2035 | 0.05 | 2.34 | 0 | 0 – 0.56 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/VNM · API docs
