Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Vanuatu: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 40/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.56 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.20, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.16) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±6.0036 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Vanuatu: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-8.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -9.77 | 6.59 | -26.13 | -13.26 – -6.27 |
| 2029 | -12.3 | 16.04 | -30 | -18.68 – -5.93 |
| 2031 | -14.84 | 21.75 | -30 | -23.49 – -6.19 |
| 2036 | -21.18 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -7.23 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.35(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23.13 | 42.42 | 6.42 | 20.01 – 26.26 |
| 2027 | 18.69 | 52.1 | 0 | 13.03 – 24.36 |
| 2029 | 14.26 | 57.38 | 0 | 6.96 – 21.56 |
| 2034 | 3.17 | 64.15 | 0 | 0 – 12.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2029 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.4bn | 1.5bn – 1.7bn |
| 2031 | 1.7bn | 1.9bn | 1.5bn | 1.5bn – 1.9bn |
| 2036 | 2bn | 2.3bn | 1.8bn | 1.6bn – 2.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.56 | 9.95 | -1.98 | 2.44 – 4.68 |
| 2029 | 3.69 | 12 | -5.9 | 1.67 – 5.72 |
| 2031 | 3.82 | 12 | -8.56 | 1.14 – 6.51 |
| 2036 | 4.15 | 12 | -10 | 0.12 – 8.19 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.2k | 4.5k | 3.9k | 4k – 4.3k |
| 2029 | 4.4k | 4.9k | 3.9k | 4.1k – 4.7k |
| 2031 | 4.6k | 5.3k | 4k | 4.1k – 5.1k |
| 2036 | 5.1k | 6.1k | 4.3k | 4.1k – 6.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 42.96 | 47.94 | 37.21 | 41.5 – 44.41 |
| 2029 | 42.47 | 51.1 | 32.51 | 39.1 – 45.84 |
| 2031 | 41.98 | 53.13 | 29.12 | 36.91 – 47.06 |
| 2036 | 40.77 | 56.53 | 22.58 | 31.82 – 49.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.03(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 47.58 | 52.92 | 42.24 | 46 – 49.16 |
| 2027 | 46.67 | 55.91 | 37.42 | 43.01 – 50.32 |
| 2029 | 45.75 | 57.69 | 33.81 | 40.26 – 51.24 |
| 2034 | 43.47 | 60.36 | 26.58 | 33.93 – 53.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.75 | 16.91 | -5 | 3.18 – 8.31 |
| 2029 | 10.57 | 29.91 | -5 | 5.77 – 15.36 |
| 2031 | 15.39 | 40.36 | -5 | 8.62 – 22.15 |
| 2036 | 27.44 | 50 | -5 | 15.22 – 39.66 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.37(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.66 | 33.85 | 18.56 | 24.08 – 27.24 |
| 2027 | 28.9 | 43.08 | 16.61 | 25.48 – 32.31 |
| 2029 | 32.13 | 50.44 | 16.27 | 26.95 – 37.32 |
| 2034 | 40.22 | 66.11 | 17.78 | 30.09 – 50.36 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed335.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 340k | 356k | 325.1k | 329.4k – 350.5k |
| 2029 | 347.5k | 363.9k | 332.2k | 321.8k – 373.2k |
| 2031 | 355k | 371.8k | 339.4k | 314.7k – 395.3k |
| 2036 | 373.8k | 391.5k | 357.4k | 296.3k – 451.3k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.47 | 12.78 | -8.76 | -1.09 – 2.02 |
| 2028 | 0.13 | 15 | -10 | -2.58 – 2.85 |
| 2030 | -0.2 | 15 | -10 | -3.72 – 3.32 |
| 2035 | -1.04 | 15 | -10 | -6.08 – 3.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed614.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 617.3m | 709.3m | 525.4m | 593.4m – 641.3m |
| 2027 | 628.8m | 788m | 469.5m | 574.2m – 683.3m |
| 2029 | 640.2m | 845.8m | 434.6m | 557.5m – 722.9m |
| 2034 | 668.8m | 959.5m | 378m | 517.3m – 820.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.6(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 11.62 | 14.97 | 8.27 | 10.92 – 12.32 |
| 2025 | 10.46 | 16.27 | 4.65 | 9.07 – 11.85 |
| 2027 | 9.89 | 17.39 | 2.39 | 7.95 – 11.83 |
| 2032 | 9.44 | 20.04 | 0 | 6.3 – 12.57 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed614.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 617.3m | 709.3m | 525.4m | 593.4m – 641.3m |
| 2027 | 628.8m | 788m | 469.5m | 574.2m – 683.3m |
| 2029 | 640.2m | 845.8m | 434.6m | 557.5m – 722.9m |
| 2034 | 668.8m | 959.5m | 378m | 517.3m – 820.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.24 | 5.81 | 4.66 | 5.06 – 5.41 |
| 2028 | 5.56 | 6.55 | 4.57 | 5.14 – 5.98 |
| 2030 | 5.89 | 7.17 | 4.61 | 5.22 – 6.56 |
| 2035 | 6.7 | 8.51 | 4.9 | 5.31 – 8.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/VUT · API docs
