Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Vanuatu: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 35/100); the economy is in slowdown; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.77 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.32) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±0.7335 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Vanuatu: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2032, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-8.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -12.85 | 3.53 | -29.24 | -16.4 – -9.3 |
| 2028 | -17.76 | 10.62 | -30 | -24.41 – -11.12 |
| 2030 | -22.67 | 13.98 | -30 | -30 – -13.38 |
| 2035 | -30 | 21.82 | -30 | -30 – -14.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.35(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23.13 | 42.42 | 6.42 | 20.01 – 26.26 |
| 2027 | 18.69 | 52.1 | 0 | 13.03 – 24.36 |
| 2029 | 14.26 | 57.38 | 0 | 6.96 – 21.56 |
| 2034 | 3.17 | 64.15 | 0 | 0 – 12.39 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.5bn | 1.7bn | 1.4bn | 1.4bn – 1.6bn |
| 2030 | 1.7bn | 1.9bn | 1.5bn | 1.5bn – 1.8bn |
| 2035 | 2bn | 2.3bn | 1.7bn | 1.6bn – 2.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.77 | 9.79 | -3.32 | 1.55 – 3.98 |
| 2028 | 2.32 | 12 | -8.21 | 0.19 – 4.46 |
| 2030 | 1.88 | 12 | -10 | -0.88 – 4.65 |
| 2035 | 0.78 | 12 | -10 | -3.08 – 4.64 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.1k | 4.4k | 3.9k | 4k – 4.3k |
| 2028 | 4.3k | 4.8k | 3.9k | 4k – 4.7k |
| 2030 | 4.5k | 5.2k | 4k | 4k – 5.1k |
| 2035 | 5.1k | 6k | 4.3k | 4k – 6.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.73 | 47.9 | 32.46 | 38.98 – 42.49 |
| 2028 | 40.39 | 52.81 | 26.07 | 36.54 – 44.24 |
| 2030 | 40.05 | 56.08 | 21.56 | 34.38 – 45.72 |
| 2035 | 39.21 | 61.87 | 13.06 | 29.45 – 48.97 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.03(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 47.58 | 52.92 | 42.24 | 46 – 49.16 |
| 2027 | 46.67 | 55.91 | 37.42 | 43.01 – 50.32 |
| 2029 | 45.75 | 57.69 | 33.81 | 40.26 – 51.24 |
| 2034 | 43.47 | 60.36 | 26.58 | 33.93 – 53.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.22 | 12.13 | -5 | -1.22 – 3.66 |
| 2028 | 0.53 | 19.45 | -5 | -3.71 – 4.77 |
| 2030 | -0.15 | 24.27 | -5 | -5 – 5.34 |
| 2035 | -1.85 | 32.68 | -5 | -5 – 6.1 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.37(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.66 | 33.85 | 18.56 | 24.08 – 27.24 |
| 2027 | 28.9 | 43.08 | 16.61 | 25.48 – 32.31 |
| 2029 | 32.13 | 50.44 | 16.27 | 26.95 – 37.32 |
| 2034 | 40.22 | 66.11 | 17.78 | 30.09 – 50.36 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed335.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 333.2k | 349k | 318.6k | 322.9k – 343.6k |
| 2028 | 341.4k | 357.5k | 326.4k | 316.1k – 366.6k |
| 2030 | 349.5k | 366k | 334.2k | 309.8k – 389.2k |
| 2035 | 369.8k | 387.3k | 353.6k | 293.1k – 446.5k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.47 | 12.78 | -8.76 | -1.09 – 2.02 |
| 2028 | 0.13 | 15 | -10 | -2.58 – 2.85 |
| 2030 | -0.2 | 15 | -10 | -3.72 – 3.32 |
| 2035 | -1.04 | 15 | -10 | -6.08 – 3.99 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed614.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 617.3m | 709.3m | 525.4m | 593.4m – 641.3m |
| 2027 | 628.8m | 788m | 469.5m | 574.2m – 683.3m |
| 2029 | 640.2m | 845.8m | 434.6m | 557.5m – 722.9m |
| 2034 | 668.8m | 959.5m | 378m | 517.3m – 820.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.6(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 11.62 | 14.97 | 8.27 | 10.92 – 12.32 |
| 2025 | 10.46 | 16.27 | 4.65 | 9.07 – 11.85 |
| 2027 | 9.89 | 17.39 | 2.39 | 7.95 – 11.83 |
| 2032 | 9.44 | 20.04 | 0 | 6.3 – 12.57 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed614.6m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 617.3m | 709.3m | 525.4m | 593.4m – 641.3m |
| 2027 | 628.8m | 788m | 469.5m | 574.2m – 683.3m |
| 2029 | 640.2m | 845.8m | 434.6m | 557.5m – 722.9m |
| 2034 | 668.8m | 959.5m | 378m | 517.3m – 820.3m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.24 | 5.81 | 4.66 | 5.06 – 5.41 |
| 2028 | 5.56 | 6.55 | 4.57 | 5.14 – 5.98 |
| 2030 | 5.89 | 7.17 | 4.61 | 5.22 – 6.56 |
| 2035 | 6.7 | 8.51 | 4.9 | 5.31 – 8.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/VUT · API docs
