Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
WBG: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 50/100); the economy is in expansion; 3 turning-point signals flagged; 8 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.33 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.00, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.24) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2025-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2022-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+12% skill vs naive; realized ±14.3 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
WBG: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-15.8(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -16.49 | -10.87 | -22.12 | -17.9 – -15.08 |
| 2028 | -17.88 | -8.13 | -27.62 | -20.72 – -15.03 |
| 2030 | -19.26 | -6.68 | -30 | -23.37 – -15.15 |
| 2035 | -22.72 | -4.93 | -30 | -29.98 – -15.45 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.2bn(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.7bn | 20.2bn | 13.7bn | 16bn – 17.4bn |
| 2028 | 15.8bn | 21.8bn | 10.5bn | 14.3bn – 17.3bn |
| 2030 | 14.9bn | 22.7bn | 8.1bn | 12.7bn – 17bn |
| 2035 | 12.5bn | 23.6bn | 2.9bn | 9.2bn – 15.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.3(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.33 | 12 | -10 | -0.9 – 11.56 |
| 2028 | 8.25 | 12 | -10 | -2.79 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.17 | 12 | -10 | -3.46 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -9.34 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3k(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9k | 3.5k | 2.3k | 2.7k – 3k |
| 2028 | 2.5k | 3.7k | 1.6k | 2.3k – 2.8k |
| 2030 | 2.2k | 3.7k | 959.06 | 1.9k – 2.6k |
| 2035 | 1.5k | 3.5k | 0 | 976.43 – 1.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.9(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.94 | 67.65 | 48.9 | 56.66 – 61.23 |
| 2028 | 65.03 | 80.11 | 47.63 | 59.59 – 70.47 |
| 2030 | 71.12 | 90.58 | 48.65 | 62.43 – 79.8 |
| 2035 | 86.33 | 113.86 | 54.56 | 68.28 – 104.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.5(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.03 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 17.67 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 24.36 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 36.75 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.7m(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.7m | 6m | 5.5m | 5.5m – 5.9m |
| 2028 | 5.8m | 6.1m | 5.6m | 5.4m – 6.3m |
| 2030 | 6m | 6.3m | 5.7m | 5.3m – 6.7m |
| 2035 | 6.3m | 6.6m | 6m | 5m – 7.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.4(2022)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24.27 | 26.36 | 22.17 | 23.51 – 25.02 |
| 2025 | 24 | 27.62 | 20.37 | 22.22 – 25.77 |
| 2027 | 23.73 | 28.41 | 19.05 | 21.03 – 26.42 |
| 2032 | 23.06 | 29.68 | 16.43 | 18.27 – 27.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/WBG · API docs
