Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
WBG: macro conditions look stressed (pressure 81/100); the economy is in contraction; 3 turning-point signals flagged; 8 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at -10 for 2025.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as stressed (sentiment -0.62, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2025: cautious (projected sentiment -0.30) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Contraction
as of 2024-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2022-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+7% skill vs naive; realized ±11.5846 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
WBG: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2032, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-18.1(2024)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -18.44 | -13.21 | -23.68 | -19.81 – -17.08 |
| 2027 | -19.13 | -10.07 | -28.19 | -21.9 – -16.36 |
| 2029 | -19.82 | -8.12 | -30 | -23.79 – -15.85 |
| 2034 | -21.54 | -5 | -30 | -28.36 – -14.72 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16bn(2024)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 15.8bn | 19.2bn | 12.8bn | 15.1bn – 16.4bn |
| 2027 | 15.1bn | 21bn | 10.1bn | 13.7bn – 16.6bn |
| 2029 | 14.5bn | 22.1bn | 7.9bn | 12.4bn – 16.6bn |
| 2034 | 12.9bn | 23.6bn | 3.7bn | 9.6bn – 16.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-22.9(2024)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -5.16 |
| 2027 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -1.42 |
| 2029 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.25 |
| 2034 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 6.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9k(2024)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.8k | 3.4k | 2.2k | 2.6k – 2.9k |
| 2027 | 2.5k | 3.6k | 1.5k | 2.2k – 2.7k |
| 2029 | 2.2k | 3.7k | 992.93 | 1.9k – 2.6k |
| 2034 | 1.6k | 3.6k | 0 | 1.1k – 2.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.1(2024)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 58.64 | 68.65 | 47.1 | 56.17 – 61.12 |
| 2027 | 63.73 | 81.06 | 43.74 | 58.01 – 69.46 |
| 2029 | 68.82 | 91.19 | 43.01 | 59.88 – 77.77 |
| 2034 | 81.55 | 113.18 | 45.05 | 63.63 – 99.46 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.5(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.03 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 17.67 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 24.36 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 36.75 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.7m(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.7m | 6m | 5.5m | 5.5m – 5.9m |
| 2028 | 5.8m | 6.1m | 5.6m | 5.4m – 6.3m |
| 2030 | 6m | 6.3m | 5.7m | 5.3m – 6.7m |
| 2035 | 6.3m | 6.6m | 6m | 5m – 7.6m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.4(2022)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24.27 | 26.36 | 22.17 | 23.51 – 25.02 |
| 2025 | 24 | 27.62 | 20.37 | 22.22 – 25.77 |
| 2027 | 23.73 | 28.41 | 19.05 | 21.03 – 26.42 |
| 2032 | 23.06 | 29.68 | 16.43 | 18.27 – 27.84 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/WBG · API docs
