Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
WEQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 52/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.83 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.04, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-8% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
WEQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.1 | 4.18 | 0.01 | 1.64 – 2.56 |
| 2029 | 2.09 | 5.71 | -1.52 | 1.25 – 2.93 |
| 2031 | 2.09 | 6.75 | -2.58 | 0.97 – 3.21 |
| 2036 | 2.08 | 8.68 | -4.52 | 0.4 – 3.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.1T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 27.2T | 29.4T | 25.2T | 26.3T – 28T |
| 2029 | 30T | 33.9T | 26.6T | 27.8T – 32.2T |
| 2031 | 32.9T | 37.9T | 28.5T | 29.1T – 36.6T |
| 2036 | 40T | 47.1T | 33.8T | 31.7T – 48.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.83 | 4.29 | -2.18 | 0.23 – 1.42 |
| 2029 | 0.13 | 6.13 | -5.08 | -0.92 – 1.18 |
| 2031 | -0.57 | 7.18 | -7.29 | -1.94 – 0.8 |
| 2036 | -2.31 | 8.65 | -10 | -4.51 – -0.12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.6k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 61.9k | 67.2k | 57.4k | 60k – 63.8k |
| 2029 | 68k | 77.1k | 60.1k | 62.9k – 73k |
| 2031 | 74k | 85.8k | 63.8k | 65.6k – 82.4k |
| 2036 | 89.1k | 105.7k | 74.7k | 70.6k – 107.6k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed86.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 86.86 | 95.71 | 76.65 | 84.11 – 89.61 |
| 2029 | 87.38 | 102.7 | 69.7 | 80.83 – 93.93 |
| 2031 | 87.9 | 107.68 | 65.08 | 77.83 – 97.97 |
| 2036 | 89.2 | 117.17 | 56.93 | 70.62 – 107.78 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.86 | 9.29 | -4.03 | 1.39 – 4.33 |
| 2029 | 3.42 | 14.56 | -5 | 0.79 – 6.06 |
| 2031 | 3.98 | 18.36 | -5 | 0.48 – 7.49 |
| 2036 | 5.38 | 25.72 | -5 | 0.01 – 10.75 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed437.5m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 436.9m | 457.6m | 417.8m | 423.4m – 450.5m |
| 2029 | 438.6m | 459.3m | 419.4m | 406.2m – 471.1m |
| 2031 | 440.3m | 461.1m | 421m | 390.3m – 490.3m |
| 2036 | 444.6m | 465.6m | 425.1m | 352.3m – 536.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/WEQ · API docs
