Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
WEQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in expansion; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.75 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.20) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±0.4485 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
WEQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed2.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.43 | 4.46 | 0.39 | 1.97 – 2.88 |
| 2028 | 2.48 | 5.99 | -1.04 | 1.64 – 3.31 |
| 2030 | 2.53 | 7.07 | -2.02 | 1.4 – 3.65 |
| 2035 | 2.65 | 9.07 | -3.77 | 0.92 – 4.38 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.9T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.1T | 27.5T | 23.1T | 24.4T – 25.9T |
| 2028 | 27.5T | 31.6T | 24T | 25.5T – 29.5T |
| 2030 | 29.9T | 35.1T | 25.3T | 26.5T – 33.2T |
| 2035 | 35.8T | 43.2T | 29.3T | 28.3T – 43.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.75 | 12 | -9.17 | -0.38 – 3.88 |
| 2028 | 2.65 | 12 | -10 | -1.11 – 6.42 |
| 2030 | 3.56 | 12 | -10 | -1.42 – 8.54 |
| 2035 | 5.83 | 12 | -10 | -1.74 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.3k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.4k | 62.9k | 52.7k | 55.7k – 59.2k |
| 2028 | 62.4k | 71.8k | 54.1k | 57.7k – 67k |
| 2030 | 67.3k | 79.5k | 56.7k | 59.6k – 74.9k |
| 2035 | 79.6k | 96.9k | 64.6k | 63.1k – 96.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed86.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 86.53 | 95.48 | 76.2 | 83.76 – 89.29 |
| 2028 | 86.98 | 102.48 | 69.09 | 80.42 – 93.54 |
| 2030 | 87.43 | 107.44 | 64.33 | 77.35 – 97.5 |
| 2035 | 88.55 | 116.86 | 55.9 | 70.03 – 107.08 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.47 | 9.15 | -4.69 | 0.95 – 3.99 |
| 2028 | 2.33 | 13.9 | -5 | -0.35 – 5.01 |
| 2030 | 2.19 | 17.13 | -5 | -1.3 – 5.68 |
| 2035 | 1.84 | 22.96 | -5 | -3.14 – 6.82 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed437m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 435m | 455.5m | 415.9m | 421.5m – 448.4m |
| 2028 | 436.5m | 457.1m | 417.3m | 404.2m – 468.7m |
| 2030 | 438m | 458.7m | 418.7m | 388.2m – 487.7m |
| 2035 | 441.7m | 462.6m | 422.3m | 350.1m – 533.4m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/WEQ · API docs
