Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
WHQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 53/100); the economy is in slowdown; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2.5 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment +0.04) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-13% skill vs naive; realized ±0.3032 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
WHQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.37 | -2.54 | -4.2 | -3.6 – -3.15 |
| 2028 | -3.72 | -2.28 | -5.15 | -4.19 – -3.25 |
| 2030 | -4.06 | -2.21 | -5.92 | -4.77 – -3.36 |
| 2035 | -4.93 | -2.3 | -7.55 | -6.25 – -3.6 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.5T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42T | 45T | 39.3T | 40.7T – 43.3T |
| 2028 | 46T | 51.3T | 41.4T | 42.6T – 49.4T |
| 2030 | 50T | 56.9T | 44.1T | 44.4T – 55.7T |
| 2035 | 60.1T | 69.8T | 51.8T | 47.7T – 72.6T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5 | 12 | -5.95 | 0.84 – 4.17 |
| 2028 | 2.72 | 12 | -10 | -0.22 – 5.67 |
| 2030 | 2.94 | 12 | -10 | -0.93 – 6.81 |
| 2035 | 3.48 | 12 | -10 | -2.21 – 9.18 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.6k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.1k | 43.1k | 37.5k | 38.9k – 41.3k |
| 2028 | 43.5k | 48.8k | 38.9k | 40.3k – 46.7k |
| 2030 | 46.9k | 53.7k | 41k | 41.6k – 52.2k |
| 2035 | 55.4k | 65k | 47k | 43.9k – 66.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed115.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 116.72 | 131.33 | 99.85 | 112.6 – 120.83 |
| 2028 | 120.95 | 146.27 | 91.74 | 111.25 – 130.66 |
| 2030 | 125.19 | 157.87 | 87.48 | 110.15 – 140.23 |
| 2035 | 135.78 | 182 | 82.45 | 106.95 – 164.62 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.04 | 8.75 | -3.08 | 1.72 – 4.35 |
| 2028 | -0.88 | 9.01 | -5 | -3.12 – 1.36 |
| 2030 | -4.8 | 7.97 | -5 | -5 – -1.59 |
| 2035 | -5 | 13.05 | -5 | -5 – -0.2 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1bn | 1.1bn | 993.4m | 1bn – 1.1bn |
| 2028 | 1bn | 1.1bn | 1bn | 969.2m – 1.1bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 1.1bn | 1bn | 934.6m – 1.2bn |
| 2035 | 1.1bn | 1.1bn | 1bn | 850.7m – 1.3bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/WHQ · API docs
