Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
WHQ: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 53/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 7 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 2 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.10) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-13% skill vs naive) · a track record, not a guarantee
WHQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.13 | -2.31 | -3.94 | -3.34 – -2.91 |
| 2029 | -3.38 | -1.96 | -4.79 | -3.83 – -2.93 |
| 2031 | -3.63 | -1.8 | -5.46 | -4.29 – -2.97 |
| 2036 | -4.26 | -1.68 | -6.85 | -5.47 – -3.05 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 44.7T | 47.7T | 42.1T | 43.3T – 46.1T |
| 2029 | 49T | 54.1T | 44.5T | 45.3T – 52.6T |
| 2031 | 53.3T | 59.9T | 47.5T | 47.2T – 59.3T |
| 2036 | 64T | 73.4T | 55.8T | 50.7T – 77.2T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2 | 4.62 | -0.27 | 1.53 – 2.47 |
| 2029 | 1.29 | 5.83 | -2.65 | 0.47 – 2.11 |
| 2031 | 0.58 | 6.44 | -4.5 | -0.48 – 1.64 |
| 2036 | -1.19 | 7.1 | -8.38 | -2.76 – 0.38 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.2k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 42.6k | 45.6k | 40k | 41.2k – 43.9k |
| 2029 | 46.2k | 51.4k | 41.7k | 42.8k – 49.6k |
| 2031 | 49.9k | 56.6k | 44.1k | 44.2k – 55.6k |
| 2036 | 59.1k | 68.6k | 50.8k | 46.8k – 71.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed114.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 116.49 | 131.03 | 99.72 | 112.39 – 120.59 |
| 2029 | 120.08 | 145.25 | 91.03 | 110.44 – 129.71 |
| 2031 | 123.66 | 156.16 | 86.17 | 108.77 – 138.56 |
| 2036 | 132.63 | 178.59 | 79.6 | 104.34 – 160.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.51 | 9.29 | -0.6 | 3.38 – 5.64 |
| 2029 | 4.65 | 12.92 | -4.21 | 2.6 – 6.71 |
| 2031 | 4.79 | 15.47 | -5 | 2.04 – 7.54 |
| 2036 | 5.14 | 20.24 | -5 | 0.97 – 9.31 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1bn(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1bn | 1.1bn | 997.2m | 1bn – 1.1bn |
| 2029 | 1bn | 1.1bn | 1bn | 971.6m – 1.1bn |
| 2031 | 1.1bn | 1.1bn | 1bn | 935.6m – 1.2bn |
| 2036 | 1.1bn | 1.1bn | 1bn | 848.9m – 1.3bn |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/WHQ · API docs
