Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Samoa: macro conditions look supportive (pressure 24/100); the economy is in slowdown; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.58 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as supportive (sentiment +0.52, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.42) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
No turning-point signals — momentum steady, no extreme readings.
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2007-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±1.6237 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Samoa: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-1.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.11 | 20.45 | -8.23 | 3.09 – 9.14 |
| 2028 | 6.94 | 30 | -17.9 | 1.53 – 12.34 |
| 2030 | 7.76 | 30 | -24.3 | 0.6 – 14.92 |
| 2035 | 9.82 | 30 | -30 | -1.01 – 20.64 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.62(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.89 | 46.34 | 10.03 | 23.68 – 30.1 |
| 2028 | 25.43 | 59.13 | 0 | 19.4 – 31.47 |
| 2030 | 23.97 | 67.47 | 0 | 15.84 – 32.11 |
| 2035 | 20.33 | 81.85 | 0 | 8.29 – 32.37 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.2bn | 1.3bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.6bn | 1.8bn | 1.4bn | 1.5bn – 1.7bn |
| 2030 | 1.8bn | 2.1bn | 1.5bn | 1.6bn – 2bn |
| 2035 | 2.3bn | 2.8bn | 1.9bn | 1.8bn – 2.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.58 | 12 | -10 | -1.27 – 4.42 |
| 2028 | -3.55 | 12 | -10 | -8.61 – 1.51 |
| 2030 | -8.67 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -1.67 |
| 2035 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 0.52 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.2k | 6.9k | 5.6k | 6k – 6.4k |
| 2028 | 7.1k | 8.3k | 6.1k | 6.6k – 7.6k |
| 2030 | 7.9k | 9.5k | 6.6k | 7k – 8.8k |
| 2035 | 10.1k | 12.3k | 8.2k | 8k – 12.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.19 | 24.9 | 10.45 | 16.87 – 19.51 |
| 2028 | 12.17 | 23.8 | 0 | 9.8 – 14.55 |
| 2030 | 6.16 | 21.16 | 0 | 3.36 – 8.96 |
| 2035 | 0 | 21.22 | 0 | 0 – 3.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.95 | 50.21 | 35.7 | 41.16 – 44.75 |
| 2028 | 42.84 | 55.41 | 30.27 | 38.86 – 46.82 |
| 2030 | 42.73 | 58.95 | 26.5 | 36.82 – 48.63 |
| 2035 | 42.44 | 65.39 | 19.49 | 32.14 – 52.75 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.75 | 12.81 | -5 | 0.48 – 5.03 |
| 2028 | 2.81 | 20.24 | -5 | -1.19 – 6.81 |
| 2030 | 2.86 | 25.36 | -5 | -2.35 – 8.08 |
| 2035 | 3 | 34.82 | -5 | -4.53 – 10.53 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.23 | 31.18 | 25.67 | 27.35 – 29.1 |
| 2028 | 26.83 | 31.94 | 22.4 | 24.81 – 28.85 |
| 2030 | 25.43 | 32.03 | 19.72 | 22.46 – 28.41 |
| 2035 | 21.94 | 31.27 | 13.86 | 17.1 – 26.79 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed219.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 218.9k | 229.2k | 209.3k | 212.1k – 225.7k |
| 2028 | 220.3k | 230.7k | 210.7k | 204k – 236.6k |
| 2030 | 221.7k | 232.2k | 212k | 196.6k – 246.9k |
| 2035 | 225.3k | 235.9k | 215.4k | 178.5k – 272k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.14 | 15 | -8.16 | 2.02 – 6.26 |
| 2028 | 3.56 | 15 | -10 | -0.16 – 7.28 |
| 2030 | 2.98 | 15 | -10 | -1.84 – 7.81 |
| 2035 | 1.54 | 15 | -10 | -5.19 – 8.27 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed593.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 655.7m | 735.3m | 576.2m | 633.1m – 678.4m |
| 2028 | 810.5m | 948.2m | 672.7m | 750.5m – 870.4m |
| 2030 | 965.2m | 1.1bn | 787.3m | 855.6m – 1.1bn |
| 2035 | 1.4bn | 1.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.1bn – 1.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.71 | 13.4 | 8.01 | 10.12 – 11.29 |
| 2028 | 8.73 | 13.39 | 4.07 | 7.6 – 9.86 |
| 2030 | 7.76 | 13.78 | 1.74 | 6.22 – 9.3 |
| 2035 | 6.99 | 15.5 | 0 | 4.57 – 9.41 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed598.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 661.8m | 742.3m | 581.3m | 638.9m – 684.7m |
| 2028 | 818.8m | 958.2m | 679.4m | 758.1m – 879.4m |
| 2030 | 975.7m | 1.2bn | 795.8m | 864.9m – 1.1bn |
| 2035 | 1.4bn | 1.6bn | 1.1bn | 1.1bn – 1.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.48 | 5.75 | 3.22 | 4.22 – 4.75 |
| 2028 | 3.46 | 5.65 | 1.27 | 2.96 – 3.96 |
| 2030 | 2.44 | 5.26 | 0 | 1.81 – 3.06 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.99 | 0 | 0 – 0.77 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/WSM · API docs
