Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Kosovo: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 37/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 13 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.73 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.26, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.32) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2014-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2014-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-9% skill vs naive; realized ±6.3071 over 21) · a track record, not a guarantee
Kosovo: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed43.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.64 | 57.89 | 36.88 | 44.28 – 48.99 |
| 2028 | 52.01 | 71.5 | 35.11 | 46.72 – 57.29 |
| 2030 | 57.38 | 82.55 | 35.56 | 49.19 – 65.56 |
| 2035 | 70.8 | 106.4 | 39.95 | 54.39 – 87.21 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.2bn | 14.6bn | 11.9bn | 12.7bn – 13.6bn |
| 2028 | 14.9bn | 17.3bn | 12.8bn | 13.8bn – 16bn |
| 2030 | 16.6bn | 19.8bn | 13.9bn | 14.7bn – 18.5bn |
| 2035 | 21bn | 25.5bn | 17.1bn | 16.6bn – 25.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.73 | 12 | -10 | 1.02 – 6.44 |
| 2028 | 4 | 12 | -10 | -0.78 – 8.77 |
| 2030 | 4.27 | 12 | -10 | -1.99 – 10.53 |
| 2035 | 4.94 | 12 | -10 | -4.22 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.5k | 9.4k | 7.7k | 8.2k – 8.7k |
| 2028 | 9.9k | 11.5k | 8.5k | 9.2k – 10.6k |
| 2030 | 11.3k | 13.4k | 9.5k | 10k – 12.6k |
| 2035 | 14.9k | 17.9k | 12.3k | 11.8k – 18k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed74.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 77.24 | 86.03 | 68.45 | 74.66 – 79.82 |
| 2028 | 83.25 | 98.47 | 68.02 | 76.92 – 89.57 |
| 2030 | 89.25 | 108.91 | 69.59 | 79.1 – 99.4 |
| 2035 | 104.26 | 132.06 | 76.46 | 82.63 – 125.89 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.16 | 15.71 | -5 | 2.74 – 7.58 |
| 2028 | 8.3 | 26.57 | -5 | 3.85 – 12.75 |
| 2030 | 11.43 | 35.02 | -5 | 5.29 – 17.58 |
| 2035 | 19.27 | 50 | -5 | 8.79 – 29.75 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.65(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31.46 | 34.66 | 28.7 | 30.49 – 32.44 |
| 2027 | 31.14 | 36.67 | 26.34 | 28.84 – 33.44 |
| 2029 | 30.81 | 37.96 | 24.62 | 27.31 – 34.31 |
| 2034 | 30 | 40.1 | 21.25 | 23.76 – 36.24 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6m | 1.7m | 1.5m | 1.6m – 1.7m |
| 2028 | 1.6m | 1.7m | 1.5m | 1.5m – 1.7m |
| 2030 | 1.6m | 1.7m | 1.4m | 1.4m – 1.7m |
| 2035 | 1.5m | 1.7m | 1.3m | 1.2m – 1.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.4bn | 1.5bn – 1.6bn |
| 2028 | 1.7bn | 2bn | 1.5bn | 1.6bn – 1.9bn |
| 2030 | 1.9bn | 2.2bn | 1.6bn | 1.7bn – 2.1bn |
| 2035 | 2.3bn | 2.8bn | 1.9bn | 1.8bn – 2.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.95 | 2.61 | 1.29 | 1.82 – 2.08 |
| 2028 | 2.11 | 3.26 | 0.96 | 1.83 – 2.39 |
| 2030 | 2.19 | 3.67 | 0.7 | 1.79 – 2.59 |
| 2035 | 2.25 | 4.35 | 0.15 | 1.57 – 2.93 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6bn | 1.7bn | 1.4bn | 1.5bn – 1.6bn |
| 2028 | 1.7bn | 2bn | 1.5bn | 1.6bn – 1.9bn |
| 2030 | 1.9bn | 2.2bn | 1.6bn | 1.7bn – 2.1bn |
| 2035 | 2.3bn | 2.8bn | 1.9bn | 1.8bn – 2.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/XKX · API docs
