Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Yemen, Rep.: macro conditions look stressed (pressure 77/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.83 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as stressed (sentiment -0.54, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.48) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2014-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2016-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+8% skill vs naive; realized ±10.1446 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Yemen, Rep.: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-8.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.2 | 21.73 | -26.12 | -7.11 – 2.72 |
| 2029 | 9.61 | 30 | -30 | 0.69 – 18.53 |
| 2031 | 21.42 | 30 | -30 | 8.79 – 30 |
| 2036 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 9.76 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.76(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5.28 | 15.56 | 0 | 3.73 – 6.83 |
| 2021 | 0 | 17.8 | 0 | 0 – 2.59 |
| 2023 | 0 | 22.98 | 0 | 0 – 3.36 |
| 2028 | 0 | 32.51 | 0 | 0 – 4.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.6bn(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.9bn | 8.9bn | 5.2bn | 6.6bn – 7.3bn |
| 2029 | 5.6bn | 9.1bn | 2.6bn | 5bn – 6.3bn |
| 2031 | 4.3bn | 8.8bn | 483m | 3.5bn – 5.2bn |
| 2036 | 1.1bn | 7.4bn | 0 | 191.1m – 2.1bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.75(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.83 | 12 | -9.99 | -1.27 – 2.92 |
| 2029 | 1.64 | 12 | -10 | -2.04 – 5.32 |
| 2031 | 2.45 | 12 | -10 | -2.39 – 7.3 |
| 2036 | 4.48 | 12 | -10 | -2.81 – 11.77 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed633.89(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 344.43 | 466.4 | 238.72 | 324.4 – 364.46 |
| 2029 | 243.16 | 454.43 | 60.07 | 206.34 – 279.99 |
| 2031 | 141.9 | 414.64 | 0 | 98.08 – 185.72 |
| 2036 | 0 | 385.71 | 0 | 0 – 46.08 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.32(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 48.14 | 61.72 | 34.56 | 45.29 – 50.99 |
| 2021 | 49.79 | 73.31 | 26.27 | 43.8 – 55.78 |
| 2023 | 51.43 | 81.8 | 21.07 | 42.67 – 60.19 |
| 2028 | 55.54 | 98.49 | 12.6 | 40.08 – 71 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.1(2014)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28.97 | 50 | 1.24 | 22.77 – 35.18 |
| 2029 | 36.11 | 50 | -5 | 24.44 – 47.79 |
| 2031 | 43.25 | 50 | -5 | 26.96 – 50 |
| 2036 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 23.85 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.18(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 6.59 | 12.5 | 1.48 | 5.65 – 7.54 |
| 2021 | 7.58 | 17.8 | 0 | 5.76 – 9.41 |
| 2023 | 8.57 | 21.77 | 0 | 6 – 11.14 |
| 2028 | 11.05 | 29.71 | 0 | 6.61 – 15.48 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 16.7m | 30.7m | 3.7m | 15.3m – 18.1m |
| 2029 | 0 | 24.2m | 0 | 0 – 1.9m |
| 2031 | 0 | 31.2m | 0 | 0 – 2.5m |
| 2036 | 0 | 44.1m | 0 | 0 – 3.5m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.2bn | 3.3bn | 0 | 911.4m – 1.6bn |
| 2025 | 1.2bn | 4.7bn | 0 | 601.9m – 1.8bn |
| 2027 | 1.2bn | 5.7bn | 0 | 366.2m – 1.9bn |
| 2032 | 1bn | 7.5bn | 0 | 0 – 2.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.22(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2.3 | 3.88 | 0.72 | 2.02 – 2.58 |
| 2019 | 3.59 | 6.33 | 0.86 | 3 – 4.18 |
| 2021 | 4.22 | 7.76 | 0.69 | 3.34 – 5.1 |
| 2026 | 4.73 | 9.72 | 0 | 3.21 – 6.25 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.2bn | 3.3bn | 0 | 911.4m – 1.6bn |
| 2025 | 1.2bn | 4.7bn | 0 | 601.9m – 1.8bn |
| 2027 | 1.2bn | 5.7bn | 0 | 366.2m – 1.9bn |
| 2032 | 1bn | 7.5bn | 0 | 0 – 2.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.11 | 18.15 | 16.06 | 16.58 – 17.64 |
| 2028 | 16.68 | 18.49 | 14.87 | 15.44 – 17.91 |
| 2030 | 16.25 | 18.59 | 13.91 | 14.4 – 18.09 |
| 2035 | 15.18 | 18.49 | 11.87 | 12.03 – 18.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/YEM · API docs
