Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Yemen, Rep.: macro conditions look stressed (pressure 78/100); the economy is in recovery; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 17 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.82 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as stressed (sentiment -0.56, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: cautious (projected sentiment -0.40) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Recovery
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2014-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2018-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2016-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: weak track record (+8% skill vs naive; realized ±3.321 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Yemen, Rep.: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-3.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.35 | 21.38 | -26.08 | -7.23 – 2.53 |
| 2028 | 6.54 | 30 | -30 | -2.16 – 15.24 |
| 2030 | 15.44 | 30 | -30 | 3.37 – 27.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 9.89 – 30 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.76(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 5.28 | 15.56 | 0 | 3.73 – 6.83 |
| 2021 | 0 | 17.8 | 0 | 0 – 2.59 |
| 2023 | 0 | 22.98 | 0 | 0 – 3.36 |
| 2028 | 0 | 32.51 | 0 | 0 – 4.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.6bn(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.8bn | 13bn | 1.5bn | 6bn – 7.7bn |
| 2028 | 4.3bn | 15bn | 0 | 2.9bn – 5.8bn |
| 2030 | 1.8bn | 15.6bn | 0 | 45.5m – 3.6bn |
| 2035 | 0 | 19.4bn | 0 | 0 – 2.3bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.75(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.82 | 12 | -10 | -0.5 – 4.14 |
| 2028 | 6.51 | 12 | -10 | 2.23 – 10.79 |
| 2030 | 11.2 | 12 | -10 | 5.19 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.84 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed633.89(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 365.6 | 581.32 | 178.64 | 334.07 – 397.13 |
| 2028 | 238.87 | 612.51 | 0 | 182.92 – 294.82 |
| 2030 | 112.14 | 594.51 | 0 | 45.75 – 178.54 |
| 2035 | 0 | 682.16 | 0 | 0 – 81.37 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.32(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 48.14 | 61.72 | 34.56 | 45.29 – 50.99 |
| 2021 | 49.79 | 73.31 | 26.27 | 43.8 – 55.78 |
| 2023 | 51.43 | 81.8 | 21.07 | 42.67 – 60.19 |
| 2028 | 55.54 | 98.49 | 12.6 | 40.08 – 71 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.1(2014)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.46 | 50 | -5 | 8.5 – 26.42 |
| 2028 | 8.5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 23.94 |
| 2030 | -0.46 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 19.02 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 23.25 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.18(2018)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 6.59 | 12.5 | 1.48 | 5.65 – 7.54 |
| 2021 | 7.58 | 17.8 | 0 | 5.76 – 9.41 |
| 2023 | 8.57 | 21.77 | 0 | 6 – 11.14 |
| 2028 | 11.05 | 29.71 | 0 | 6.61 – 15.48 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.5m | 43.4m | 39.6m | 40.2m – 42.8m |
| 2028 | 42.8m | 44.8m | 40.9m | 39.6m – 45.9m |
| 2030 | 44.1m | 46.2m | 42.2m | 39.1m – 49.1m |
| 2035 | 47.4m | 49.6m | 45.3m | 37.5m – 57.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.2bn | 3.3bn | 0 | 911.4m – 1.6bn |
| 2025 | 1.2bn | 4.7bn | 0 | 601.9m – 1.8bn |
| 2027 | 1.2bn | 5.7bn | 0 | 366.2m – 1.9bn |
| 2032 | 1bn | 7.5bn | 0 | 0 – 2.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.22(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2.3 | 3.88 | 0.72 | 2.02 – 2.58 |
| 2019 | 3.59 | 6.33 | 0.86 | 3 – 4.18 |
| 2021 | 4.22 | 7.76 | 0.69 | 3.34 – 5.1 |
| 2026 | 4.73 | 9.72 | 0 | 3.21 – 6.25 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.2bn | 3.3bn | 0 | 911.4m – 1.6bn |
| 2025 | 1.2bn | 4.7bn | 0 | 601.9m – 1.8bn |
| 2027 | 1.2bn | 5.7bn | 0 | 366.2m – 1.9bn |
| 2032 | 1bn | 7.5bn | 0 | 0 – 2.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.11 | 18.15 | 16.06 | 16.58 – 17.64 |
| 2028 | 16.68 | 18.49 | 14.87 | 15.44 – 17.91 |
| 2030 | 16.25 | 18.59 | 13.91 | 14.4 – 18.09 |
| 2035 | 15.18 | 18.49 | 11.87 | 12.03 – 18.32 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-11-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/YEM · API docs
