Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
South Africa: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 53/100); the economy is in expansion; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 21 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 1.42 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.06, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment -0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-06-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±0.4181 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
South Africa: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.35 | 4.35 | -5.04 | -1.32 – 0.63 |
| 2028 | -0.04 | 8.1 | -8.17 | -1.74 – 1.67 |
| 2030 | 0.27 | 10.77 | -10.22 | -1.95 – 2.5 |
| 2035 | 1.05 | 15.89 | -13.8 | -2.15 – 4.24 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.24 | 35.7 | 29.24 | 31.23 – 33.25 |
| 2028 | 33.9 | 39.89 | 28.71 | 31.39 – 36.41 |
| 2030 | 35.56 | 43.29 | 28.86 | 31.52 – 39.6 |
| 2035 | 39.71 | 50.65 | 30.23 | 31.47 – 47.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed427.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 431.6bn | 516.6bn | 358bn | 414.6bn – 448.6bn |
| 2028 | 444.2bn | 591.3bn | 316.7bn | 405.3bn – 483bn |
| 2030 | 456.7bn | 646.7bn | 292.1bn | 397.6bn – 515.9bn |
| 2035 | 488.1bn | 756.8bn | 255.4bn | 378.1bn – 598.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.42 | 11.74 | -7.53 | -0.33 – 3.16 |
| 2028 | 2.09 | 12 | -10 | -0.99 – 5.17 |
| 2030 | 2.76 | 12 | -10 | -1.3 – 6.83 |
| 2035 | 4.45 | 12 | -10 | -1.7 – 10.6 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.6k | 8k | 5.4k | 6.3k – 6.9k |
| 2028 | 6.6k | 9k | 4.5k | 6k – 7.2k |
| 2030 | 6.6k | 9.8k | 3.9k | 5.7k – 7.6k |
| 2035 | 6.7k | 11.1k | 2.9k | 5.1k – 8.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 82.4 | 88.76 | 75.07 | 79.85 – 84.96 |
| 2028 | 90.01 | 101.02 | 77.3 | 83.35 – 96.67 |
| 2030 | 97.62 | 111.83 | 81.21 | 86.53 – 108.7 |
| 2035 | 116.63 | 136.74 | 93.43 | 92.44 – 140.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.3 | 36.23 | 24.38 | 28.91 – 31.7 |
| 2028 | 31.91 | 42.17 | 21.66 | 28.81 – 35.01 |
| 2030 | 33.52 | 46.76 | 20.28 | 28.81 – 38.23 |
| 2035 | 37.54 | 56.27 | 18.82 | 28.67 – 46.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9 | 6.17 | -0.6 | 2.13 – 3.67 |
| 2028 | 1.28 | 6.95 | -4.79 | -0.04 – 2.6 |
| 2030 | -0.34 | 6.98 | -5 | -2.04 – 1.37 |
| 2035 | -4.38 | 5.97 | -5 | -5 – -1.39 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.77 | 15.57 | 12.2 | 13.29 – 14.25 |
| 2028 | 13.47 | 16.59 | 10.76 | 12.37 – 14.56 |
| 2030 | 13.17 | 17.2 | 9.67 | 11.54 – 14.8 |
| 2035 | 12.41 | 18.12 | 7.46 | 9.61 – 15.21 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 64.5m | 67.6m | 61.7m | 62.5m – 66.5m |
| 2028 | 65.3m | 68.4m | 62.5m | 60.5m – 70.2m |
| 2030 | 66.1m | 69.3m | 63.2m | 58.6m – 73.7m |
| 2035 | 68.2m | 71.4m | 65.2m | 54m – 82.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.34 | 12.09 | -8.47 | -1.15 – 1.82 |
| 2028 | 1.28 | 15 | -10 | -1.33 – 3.88 |
| 2030 | 2.21 | 15 | -10 | -1.25 – 5.68 |
| 2035 | 4.56 | 15 | -10 | -0.81 – 9.94 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 59.6bn | 62.8bn | 56.4bn | 57.8bn – 61.5bn |
| 2028 | 62.9bn | 68.4bn | 57.3bn | 58.2bn – 67.5bn |
| 2030 | 66.1bn | 73.3bn | 58.9bn | 58.6bn – 73.6bn |
| 2035 | 74.2bn | 84.4bn | 64.1bn | 58.8bn – 89.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.03 | 7.74 | 4.31 | 5.67 – 6.39 |
| 2028 | 5.8 | 8.77 | 2.82 | 5.06 – 6.53 |
| 2030 | 5.68 | 9.52 | 1.84 | 4.64 – 6.72 |
| 2035 | 5.59 | 11.02 | 0.16 | 3.86 – 7.31 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed76bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 79.2bn | 85.3bn | 73.2bn | 76.8bn – 81.7bn |
| 2028 | 87.5bn | 98bn | 77bn | 81bn – 94bn |
| 2030 | 95.8bn | 109.3bn | 82.3bn | 84.9bn – 106.7bn |
| 2035 | 116.5bn | 135.6bn | 97.4bn | 92.3bn – 140.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.66 | 36.86 | 28.47 | 31.5 – 33.83 |
| 2028 | 33.21 | 40 | 25.94 | 30.5 – 35.91 |
| 2030 | 33.75 | 40 | 24.37 | 29.62 – 37.89 |
| 2035 | 35.11 | 40 | 21.85 | 27.46 – 40 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ZAF · API docs
