Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
South Africa: macro conditions look cautious (pressure 65/100); the economy is in slowdown; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 20 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 0.94 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as cautious (sentiment -0.30, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: cautious (projected sentiment -0.20) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-03-01
OECD SDMX API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-7% skill vs naive; realized ±4.2316 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
South Africa: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed-0.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.07 | 3.65 | -5.8 | -2.05 – -0.09 |
| 2029 | -1.42 | 6.76 | -9.6 | -3.16 – 0.32 |
| 2031 | -1.77 | 8.79 | -12.33 | -4.07 – 0.53 |
| 2036 | -2.64 | 12.3 | -17.57 | -6.11 – 0.83 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.24 | 35.7 | 29.24 | 31.23 – 33.25 |
| 2028 | 33.9 | 39.89 | 28.71 | 31.39 – 36.41 |
| 2030 | 35.56 | 43.29 | 28.86 | 31.52 – 39.6 |
| 2035 | 39.71 | 50.65 | 30.23 | 31.47 – 47.95 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed427.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 499.5bn | 589.6bn | 421.5bn | 480.8bn – 518.3bn |
| 2029 | 547.6bn | 703.7bn | 412.4bn | 502.8bn – 592.5bn |
| 2031 | 595.7bn | 797.2bn | 421.2bn | 524.1bn – 667.4bn |
| 2036 | 716bn | 1T | 469.1bn | 567.5bn – 864.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.94 | 3.4 | -1.19 | 0.52 – 1.37 |
| 2029 | 0.74 | 5 | -2.95 | -0.01 – 1.5 |
| 2031 | 0.55 | 6.05 | -4.22 | -0.45 – 1.54 |
| 2036 | 0.05 | 7.83 | -6.69 | -1.4 – 1.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.8k | 9.3k | 6.4k | 7.5k – 8.1k |
| 2029 | 8.4k | 11k | 6.1k | 7.7k – 9.1k |
| 2031 | 9.1k | 12.4k | 6.1k | 7.9k – 10.2k |
| 2036 | 10.7k | 15.5k | 6.5k | 8.4k – 12.9k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 82.4 | 88.93 | 74.86 | 79.84 – 84.95 |
| 2029 | 89.39 | 100.7 | 76.33 | 82.77 – 96 |
| 2031 | 96.38 | 110.98 | 79.52 | 85.43 – 107.32 |
| 2036 | 113.85 | 134.51 | 90.01 | 90.23 – 137.47 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.3 | 36.23 | 24.38 | 28.91 – 31.7 |
| 2028 | 31.91 | 42.17 | 21.66 | 28.81 – 35.01 |
| 2030 | 33.52 | 46.76 | 20.28 | 28.81 – 38.23 |
| 2035 | 37.54 | 56.27 | 18.82 | 28.67 – 46.41 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.33 | 7.4 | 1.04 | 3.58 – 5.08 |
| 2029 | 5.3 | 10.62 | -0.4 | 3.87 – 6.74 |
| 2031 | 6.27 | 13.14 | -1.08 | 4.25 – 8.3 |
| 2036 | 8.71 | 18.42 | -1.7 | 5.16 – 12.25 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.77 | 15.57 | 12.2 | 13.29 – 14.25 |
| 2028 | 13.47 | 16.59 | 10.76 | 12.37 – 14.56 |
| 2030 | 13.17 | 17.2 | 9.67 | 11.54 – 14.8 |
| 2035 | 12.41 | 18.12 | 7.46 | 9.61 – 15.21 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 63.6m | 66.6m | 60.8m | 61.6m – 65.6m |
| 2029 | 62.8m | 65.7m | 60m | 58.1m – 67.4m |
| 2031 | 61.9m | 64.8m | 59.2m | 54.9m – 68.9m |
| 2036 | 59.8m | 62.9m | 56.8m | 47.4m – 72.2m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.34 | 12.09 | -8.47 | -1.15 – 1.82 |
| 2028 | 1.28 | 15 | -10 | -1.33 – 3.88 |
| 2030 | 2.21 | 15 | -10 | -1.25 – 5.68 |
| 2035 | 4.56 | 15 | -10 | -0.81 – 9.94 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 59.6bn | 62.8bn | 56.4bn | 57.8bn – 61.5bn |
| 2028 | 62.9bn | 68.4bn | 57.3bn | 58.2bn – 67.5bn |
| 2030 | 66.1bn | 73.3bn | 58.9bn | 58.6bn – 73.6bn |
| 2035 | 74.2bn | 84.4bn | 64.1bn | 58.8bn – 89.6bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.03 | 7.74 | 4.31 | 5.67 – 6.39 |
| 2028 | 5.8 | 8.77 | 2.82 | 5.06 – 6.53 |
| 2030 | 5.68 | 9.52 | 1.84 | 4.64 – 6.72 |
| 2035 | 5.59 | 11.02 | 0.16 | 3.86 – 7.31 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed76bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 79.2bn | 85.3bn | 73.2bn | 76.8bn – 81.7bn |
| 2028 | 87.5bn | 98bn | 77bn | 81bn – 94bn |
| 2030 | 95.8bn | 109.3bn | 82.3bn | 84.9bn – 106.7bn |
| 2035 | 116.5bn | 135.6bn | 97.4bn | 92.3bn – 140.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 32.21 | 33.79 | 30.64 | 31.22 – 33.21 |
| 2029 | 31.64 | 33.51 | 29.77 | 29.3 – 33.99 |
| 2031 | 31.07 | 33.49 | 28.66 | 27.55 – 34.6 |
| 2036 | 29.65 | 33.06 | 26.23 | 23.5 – 35.8 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ZAF · API docs
