Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Zambia: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 51/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 3.53 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment -0.02, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: balanced (projected sentiment -0.08) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-11% skill vs naive; realized ±0.7721 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Zambia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.6 | 7 | -16.2 | -7.04 – -2.16 |
| 2028 | -6.8 | 13.29 | -26.89 | -11.23 – -2.38 |
| 2030 | -9.01 | 16.93 | -30 | -15.02 – -2.99 |
| 2035 | -14.51 | 22.17 | -30 | -24.32 – -4.7 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.98(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 35.42 | 50.8 | 22.09 | 32.65 – 38.18 |
| 2027 | 36.29 | 62.92 | 13.2 | 30.74 – 41.83 |
| 2029 | 37.16 | 71.54 | 7.35 | 29.27 – 45.04 |
| 2034 | 39.33 | 87.96 | 0 | 26.09 – 52.57 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.8bn | 37.5bn | 21.2bn | 27.3bn – 30.3bn |
| 2028 | 29bn | 44.1bn | 15.9bn | 25.8bn – 32.2bn |
| 2030 | 29.2bn | 48.7bn | 12.3bn | 24.6bn – 33.9bn |
| 2035 | 29.8bn | 57.4bn | 5.9bn | 21.7bn – 37.8bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.53 | 11.73 | -3.58 | 2.1 – 4.95 |
| 2028 | 3.09 | 12 | -9.23 | 0.57 – 5.6 |
| 2030 | 2.64 | 12 | -10 | -0.62 – 5.91 |
| 2035 | 1.54 | 12 | -10 | -3.03 – 6.11 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3k | 1.7k | 896 | 1.2k – 1.4k |
| 2028 | 1.2k | 2k | 551.21 | 1.1k – 1.4k |
| 2030 | 1.2k | 2.2k | 294.86 | 949.98 – 1.4k |
| 2035 | 1k | 2.4k | 0 | 679.82 – 1.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed86(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 91.05 | 135.67 | 39.56 | 82.72 – 99.37 |
| 2028 | 101.14 | 178.43 | 11.95 | 84.39 – 117.88 |
| 2030 | 111.23 | 211.01 | 0 | 86.98 – 135.48 |
| 2035 | 136.45 | 277.57 | 0 | 92.91 – 180 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.55(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 26.66 | 36.9 | 16.43 | 24.67 – 28.66 |
| 2027 | 24.89 | 42.61 | 7.17 | 20.98 – 28.8 |
| 2029 | 23.11 | 45.99 | 0.23 | 17.76 – 28.46 |
| 2034 | 18.67 | 51.03 | 0 | 10.73 – 26.61 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.19 | 25.32 | 0.19 | 10.29 – 16.09 |
| 2028 | 11.68 | 32.69 | -5 | 6.46 – 16.9 |
| 2030 | 10.18 | 37.29 | -5 | 3.35 – 17 |
| 2035 | 6.41 | 44.76 | -5 | -3.12 – 15.94 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.6(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20.06 | 25.44 | 15.4 | 18.97 – 21.15 |
| 2027 | 15.82 | 25.14 | 7.74 | 13.73 – 17.91 |
| 2029 | 11.58 | 23.61 | 1.15 | 8.93 – 14.22 |
| 2034 | 0.97 | 17.99 | 0 | 0 – 3.56 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.8m | 22.8m | 20.8m | 21.1m – 22.4m |
| 2028 | 22.4m | 23.5m | 21.4m | 20.8m – 24.1m |
| 2030 | 23.1m | 24.2m | 22.1m | 20.5m – 25.7m |
| 2035 | 24.7m | 25.9m | 23.6m | 19.6m – 29.9m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.07 | 12.02 | -9.13 | -1.59 – 1.46 |
| 2028 | -0.18 | 15 | -10 | -2.84 – 2.49 |
| 2030 | -0.29 | 15 | -10 | -3.74 – 3.17 |
| 2035 | -0.56 | 15 | -10 | -5.5 – 4.37 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.4bn | 5.7bn | 3.1bn | 4.1bn – 4.6bn |
| 2027 | 5.2bn | 7.4bn | 2.9bn | 4.6bn – 5.7bn |
| 2029 | 5.9bn | 8.8bn | 3bn | 5bn – 6.8bn |
| 2034 | 7.9bn | 12bn | 3.7bn | 6bn – 9.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.29(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.16 | 4.4 | 1.92 | 2.92 – 3.4 |
| 2027 | 3 | 5.16 | 0.85 | 2.53 – 3.48 |
| 2029 | 2.92 | 5.71 | 0.14 | 2.26 – 3.58 |
| 2034 | 2.86 | 6.8 | 0 | 1.8 – 3.92 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.4bn | 5.7bn | 3.1bn | 4.1bn – 4.6bn |
| 2027 | 5.2bn | 7.4bn | 2.9bn | 4.6bn – 5.7bn |
| 2029 | 5.9bn | 8.8bn | 3bn | 5bn – 6.8bn |
| 2034 | 7.9bn | 12bn | 3.7bn | 6bn – 9.7bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.96 | 6.98 | 4.94 | 5.71 – 6.21 |
| 2028 | 6.04 | 7.8 | 4.28 | 5.48 – 6.6 |
| 2030 | 6.12 | 8.39 | 3.84 | 5.28 – 6.96 |
| 2035 | 6.32 | 9.54 | 3.1 | 4.81 – 7.82 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ZMB · API docs
