Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Zimbabwe: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 42/100); the economy is in slowdown; 1 turning-point signal flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 5.91 for 2027.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.16, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2027: balanced (projected sentiment +0.14) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Slowdown
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-2% skill vs naive; realized ±9.0862 over 20) · a track record, not a guarantee
Zimbabwe: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.96 | 6.39 | 1.53 | 3.4 – 4.52 |
| 2029 | 4.48 | 8.69 | 0.27 | 3.41 – 5.56 |
| 2031 | 5 | 10.44 | -0.43 | 3.49 – 6.51 |
| 2036 | 6.31 | 13.99 | -1.38 | 3.73 – 8.88 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.06(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | 24.33 | 10.65 | 15.68 – 18.32 |
| 2027 | 14.89 | 27.58 | 3.9 | 12.37 – 17.42 |
| 2029 | 12.78 | 29.16 | 0 | 9.42 – 16.15 |
| 2034 | 7.51 | 30.67 | 0 | 3 – 12.02 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 61.4bn | 72.3bn | 51.9bn | 59.1bn – 63.6bn |
| 2029 | 72.5bn | 91.4bn | 56bn | 66.7bn – 78.2bn |
| 2031 | 83.6bn | 108.1bn | 62.3bn | 73.9bn – 93.2bn |
| 2036 | 111.3bn | 146bn | 81.2bn | 88.2bn – 134.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.91 | 12 | -0.81 | 4.52 – 7.3 |
| 2029 | 7.64 | 12 | -3.99 | 5.04 – 10.25 |
| 2031 | 9.38 | 12 | -5.65 | 5.74 – 12 |
| 2036 | 12 | 12 | -9.25 | 5.99 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.4k | 4.1k | 2.8k | 3.3k – 3.6k |
| 2029 | 3.9k | 5.1k | 2.9k | 3.6k – 4.3k |
| 2031 | 4.5k | 5.9k | 3.2k | 3.9k – 5k |
| 2036 | 5.8k | 7.9k | 4k | 4.6k – 7k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 43.41 | 73.95 | 8.17 | 38.01 – 48.8 |
| 2029 | 45.62 | 98.52 | 0 | 35.29 – 55.95 |
| 2031 | 47.83 | 116.12 | 0 | 33.5 – 62.17 |
| 2036 | 53.37 | 149.94 | 0 | 29.97 – 76.76 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.45(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.82 | 31.51 | 14.12 | 21.12 – 24.51 |
| 2027 | 21.56 | 36.61 | 6.5 | 18.22 – 24.89 |
| 2029 | 20.29 | 39.73 | 0.86 | 15.7 – 24.89 |
| 2034 | 17.14 | 44.63 | 0 | 10.19 – 24.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed104.71(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 31.14 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2029 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2031 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2036 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.93(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.85 | 11.91 | 4.34 | 7.15 – 8.56 |
| 2027 | 7.59 | 14.62 | 1.5 | 6.22 – 8.96 |
| 2029 | 7.32 | 16.4 | 0 | 5.44 – 9.21 |
| 2034 | 6.66 | 19.49 | 0 | 3.76 – 9.56 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 17.7m | 18.5m | 16.9m | 17.1m – 18.2m |
| 2029 | 18.5m | 19.4m | 17.7m | 17.2m – 19.9m |
| 2031 | 19.4m | 20.3m | 18.6m | 17.2m – 21.6m |
| 2036 | 21.5m | 22.6m | 20.6m | 17.1m – 26m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3 | 15 | -4.82 | 3.53 – 7.07 |
| 2028 | 6.81 | 15 | -10 | 3.56 – 10.06 |
| 2030 | 8.32 | 15 | -10 | 3.88 – 12.75 |
| 2035 | 12.09 | 15 | -10 | 4.82 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed261.4m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 137.4m | 903.6m | 0 | 17.9m – 256.9m |
| 2027 | 0 | 1.3bn | 0 | 0 – 203.1m |
| 2029 | 0 | 1.7bn | 0 | 0 – 262.2m |
| 2034 | 0 | 2.4bn | 0 | 0 – 370.9m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.52(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.51 | 1.47 | 0 | 0.35 – 0.68 |
| 2027 | 0.5 | 2.17 | 0 | 0.2 – 0.81 |
| 2029 | 0.5 | 2.65 | 0 | 0.09 – 0.91 |
| 2034 | 0.5 | 3.53 | 0 | 0 – 1.12 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed485m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 400m | 1.2bn | 0 | 273m – 527m |
| 2027 | 249.3m | 1.6bn | 0 | 28.5m – 470.2m |
| 2029 | 98.6m | 1.9bn | 0 | 0 – 376.2m |
| 2034 | 0 | 2.5bn | 0 | 0 – 381.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.36 | 10.48 | 8.24 | 9.04 – 9.68 |
| 2028 | 9.49 | 11.43 | 7.55 | 8.74 – 10.25 |
| 2030 | 9.63 | 12.13 | 7.12 | 8.47 – 10.78 |
| 2035 | 9.96 | 13.5 | 6.41 | 7.82 – 12.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-04 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ZWE · API docs
