Intelligence brief
The whole picture in one grounded read: observed macro indicators, the derived macro-sentiment composite, the business-cycle regime, and a forward forecast. Derived reads interpret already-observed numbers; the forecast is labelled projections (not observations); an absent series is shown honestly, never fabricated.
Brief
Observed macro, derived sentiment, the business-cycle regime, and forward projections — each traced to the live series it reads. Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/brief/country/{iso3}.
Zimbabwe: macro conditions look balanced (pressure 38/100); the economy is in expansion; 2 turning-point signals flagged; 19 observed macro indicators held; real gdp growth is projected at 9.34 for 2026.
Macro pressure
DerivedHigher = more macro pressure. Reads as balanced (sentiment +0.24, −1 stressed … +1 supportive).
Outlook 2026: supportive (projected sentiment +0.48) · a projection from baseline forecasts
Expansion
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2023-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2026-01-01
IMF DataMapper API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2022-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2021-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2024-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
as of 2025-01-01
World Bank Indicators API
Headline reliability: below naive track record (-2% skill vs naive; realized ±4.3419 over 1) · a track record, not a guarantee
Zimbabwe: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed3.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.42 | 8.39 | 0.45 | 3.54 – 5.3 |
| 2028 | 5.26 | 12.14 | -1.61 | 3.61 – 6.92 |
| 2030 | 6.11 | 14.99 | -2.77 | 3.81 – 8.41 |
| 2035 | 8.21 | 20.77 | -4.34 | 4.34 – 12.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.06(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | 24.33 | 10.65 | 15.68 – 18.32 |
| 2027 | 14.89 | 27.58 | 3.9 | 12.37 – 17.42 |
| 2029 | 12.78 | 29.16 | 0 | 9.42 – 16.15 |
| 2034 | 7.51 | 30.67 | 0 | 3 – 12.02 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.5bn | 64.7bn | 43.8bn | 51.3bn – 55.7bn |
| 2028 | 59.6bn | 78.9bn | 42.8bn | 54.4bn – 64.7bn |
| 2030 | 65.7bn | 90.6bn | 44bn | 57.4bn – 73.9bn |
| 2035 | 80.8bn | 116.1bn | 50.3bn | 63.7bn – 98bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.34 | 12 | -4.16 | 6.59 – 12 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 6.93 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 5.23 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 1.87 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.1k | 3.8k | 2.5k | 3k – 3.3k |
| 2028 | 3.4k | 4.6k | 2.4k | 3.1k – 3.7k |
| 2030 | 3.7k | 5.2k | 2.3k | 3.2k – 4.1k |
| 2035 | 4.4k | 6.5k | 2.5k | 3.4k – 5.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.62 | 78.27 | 10.1 | 41.01 – 52.24 |
| 2028 | 52.26 | 107.08 | 0 | 41.32 – 63.2 |
| 2030 | 57.9 | 128.68 | 0 | 42.38 – 73.42 |
| 2035 | 72.01 | 172.09 | 0 | 45.09 – 98.92 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.45(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.82 | 31.51 | 14.12 | 21.12 – 24.51 |
| 2027 | 21.56 | 36.61 | 6.5 | 18.22 – 24.89 |
| 2029 | 20.29 | 39.73 | 0.86 | 15.7 – 24.89 |
| 2034 | 17.14 | 44.63 | 0 | 10.19 – 24.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed104.71(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.93(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.85 | 11.91 | 4.34 | 7.15 – 8.56 |
| 2027 | 7.59 | 14.62 | 1.5 | 6.22 – 8.96 |
| 2029 | 7.32 | 16.4 | 0 | 5.44 – 9.21 |
| 2034 | 6.66 | 19.49 | 0 | 3.76 – 9.56 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.9m | 17.7m | 16.1m | 16.4m – 17.4m |
| 2028 | 17.2m | 18m | 16.5m | 16m – 18.5m |
| 2030 | 17.6m | 18.4m | 16.8m | 15.6m – 19.6m |
| 2035 | 18.4m | 19.3m | 17.6m | 14.6m – 22.3m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3 | 15 | -4.82 | 3.53 – 7.07 |
| 2028 | 6.81 | 15 | -10 | 3.56 – 10.06 |
| 2030 | 8.32 | 15 | -10 | 3.88 – 12.75 |
| 2035 | 12.09 | 15 | -10 | 4.82 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed261.4m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 137.4m | 903.6m | 0 | 17.9m – 256.9m |
| 2027 | 0 | 1.3bn | 0 | 0 – 203.1m |
| 2029 | 0 | 1.7bn | 0 | 0 – 262.2m |
| 2034 | 0 | 2.4bn | 0 | 0 – 370.9m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.52(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.51 | 1.47 | 0 | 0.35 – 0.68 |
| 2027 | 0.5 | 2.17 | 0 | 0.2 – 0.81 |
| 2029 | 0.5 | 2.65 | 0 | 0.09 – 0.91 |
| 2034 | 0.5 | 3.53 | 0 | 0 – 1.12 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed485m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 400m | 1.2bn | 0 | 273m – 527m |
| 2027 | 249.3m | 1.6bn | 0 | 28.5m – 470.2m |
| 2029 | 98.6m | 1.9bn | 0 | 0 – 376.2m |
| 2034 | 0 | 2.5bn | 0 | 0 – 381.4m |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.36 | 10.48 | 8.24 | 9.04 – 9.68 |
| 2028 | 9.49 | 11.43 | 7.55 | 8.74 – 10.25 |
| 2030 | 9.63 | 12.13 | 7.12 | 8.47 – 10.78 |
| 2035 | 9.96 | 13.5 | 6.41 | 7.82 – 12.09 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-09-18 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/brief/country/ZWE · API docs
