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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

Research and information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain.

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Briefing · markets

Markets & rates: where the data is diverging

2 markets & rates signals are diverging right now; 2 sitting far from the global norm — led by United States.

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In short

  • ›United States — 10Y yield is well above the global norm (4.54%).
  • ›Lithuania — 10Y yield is well below the global norm (2.88%).

Supporting signals

The data behind this note

Ranked across countries with ≥1 M people or ≥$10 bn GDP so micro-territories don't crowd the board.

  • 1United States — 10Y yield is well above the global normpeer10Y yield4.54%▲+2.47σ
  • 2Lithuania — 10Y yield is well below the global normpeer10Y yield2.88%▼−2.21σ

Generated from current observations and the signal engine. Describes movement in the data — not a forecast or investment advice.