markets · indicator
Benchmark 10-year government bond yield (euro-area convergence long-term rates; 10-year US treasury constant maturity).
How it’s forecast
10Y yield uses a mean reversion model with a 10-year lookback, 70% recent-data weight, 80% confidence band, and horizons of 1, 3, 5, 10 years.
Why it matters
Interpretation depends on context and the wider macro profile.
Trajectory
No global history or forecast exists for this indicator yet.
Before consensus
Countries whose latest reading deviates most from their own recent trend.
Rankings
By country
Observed history with a baseline / optimistic / pessimistic forecast for the largest current readings.
Forecast
Per-country latest reading and baseline forecast across horizons.
| Country | Latest | Year | 1y | 3y | 5y | 10y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 3.41% | 2026 | 2.84% | 2.16% | 1.83% | 1.56% |
| Belgium | 3.76% | 2026 | 3.12% | 2.35% | 1.98% | 1.68% |
| Bulgaria | 4.09% | 2026 | 3.47% | 2.74% | 2.38% | 2.09% |
| Croatia | 3.58% | 2026 | 3.19% | 2.72% | 2.49% | 2.30% |
| Cyprus | 3.62% | 2026 | 3.20% | 2.70% | 2.45% | 2.26% |
| Estonia | 3.83% | 2026 | 3.42% | 2.93% | 2.69% | 2.50% |
| Finland | 3.52% | 2026 | 2.92% | 2.21% | 1.86% | 1.58% |
| France | 4.00% | 2026 | 3.31% | 2.49% | 2.08% | 1.76% |
| Germany | 3.19% | 2026 | 2.58% | 1.85% | 1.50% | 1.21% |
| Greece | 3.87% | 2026 | 3.61% | 3.29% | 3.14% | 3.02% |
| Ireland | 3.35% | 2026 | 2.80% | 2.15% | 1.83% | 1.57% |
| Italy | 3.99% | 2026 | 3.59% | 3.12% | 2.89% | 2.71% |
| Latvia | 3.82% | 2026 | 3.25% | 2.58% | 2.25% | 1.99% |
| Lithuania | 2.88% | 2026 | 2.49% | 2.02% | 1.79% | 1.60% |
| Luxembourg | 3.40% | 2026 | 2.81% | 2.10% | 1.76% | 1.48% |
| Malta | 3.90% | 2026 | 3.37% | 2.74% | 2.43% | 2.18% |
| Netherlands | 3.29% | 2026 | 2.70% | 2.01% | 1.67% | 1.39% |
| Portugal | 3.54% | 2026 | 3.07% | 2.50% | 2.23% | 2.01% |
| Slovakia | 3.85% | 2026 | 3.24% | 2.52% | 2.16% | 1.88% |
| Slovenia | 3.54% | 2026 | 3.02% | 2.40% | 2.10% | 1.86% |
| Spain | 3.63% | 2026 | 3.13% | 2.54% | 2.25% | 2.02% |
| United States | 4.54% | 2026 | 4.09% | 3.56% | 3.30% | 3.09% |
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Sources
10Y yield uses a mean reversion model with a 10-year lookback, 70% recent-data weight, 80% confidence band, and horizons of 1, 3, 5, 10 years.
