Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Arab World: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2033, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Arab World's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.812 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.7T | 2023 (9.31) |
Latest observed46.83(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 47.8 | 56.86 | 39.96 | 45.75 – 49.86 |
| 2026 | 49.76 | 65.44 | 36.16 | 45.13 – 54.39 |
| 2028 | 51.71 | 71.96 | 34.16 | 44.68 – 58.74 |
| 2033 | 56.59 | 85.23 | 31.78 | 43.45 – 69.74 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead46.58· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.19typical miss · 20 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.8T | 4.5T | 3.3T | 3.7T – 4T |
| 2028 | 4T | 5.2T | 3T | 3.7T – 4.3T |
| 2030 | 4.2T | 5.7T | 2.9T | 3.7T – 4.7T |
| 2035 | 4.6T | 6.7T | 2.7T | 3.6T – 5.6T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±658.6bntypical miss · 25 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.57 | 12 | -4.21 | 2.81 – 6.34 |
| 2028 | 6.53 | 12 | -8.68 | 3.29 – 9.77 |
| 2030 | 8.49 | 12 | -10 | 4.03 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.74 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.49· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.29typical miss · 25 realized · 166% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.5k | 9k | 6.2k | 7.2k – 7.8k |
| 2028 | 7.6k | 10.1k | 5.3k | 6.9k – 8.2k |
| 2030 | 7.6k | 10.9k | 4.7k | 6.6k – 8.6k |
| 2035 | 7.7k | 12.4k | 3.6k | 5.9k – 9.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.7ktypical miss · 25 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.73(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 43.25 | 47.38 | 39.13 | 41.91 – 44.59 |
| 2027 | 44.3 | 51.44 | 37.15 | 41.02 – 47.57 |
| 2029 | 45.34 | 54.57 | 36.11 | 40.19 – 50.49 |
| 2034 | 47.94 | 60.99 | 34.89 | 38 – 57.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.03typical miss · 25 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.71 | 4.83 | -1.64 | 0.99 – 2.43 |
| 2028 | 0.95 | 6.36 | -4.84 | -0.3 – 2.2 |
| 2030 | 0.19 | 7.18 | -5 | -1.44 – 1.82 |
| 2035 | -1.71 | 8.17 | -5 | -4.17 – 0.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.55· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.62typical miss · 4 realized · 130% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.76 | 27.87 | 23.92 | 24.96 – 26.56 |
| 2028 | 27.45 | 31.12 | 24.28 | 25.42 – 29.48 |
| 2030 | 29.15 | 33.88 | 25.05 | 25.84 – 32.46 |
| 2035 | 33.39 | 40.08 | 27.59 | 26.46 – 40.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.08typical miss · 25 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed503.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 500.6m | 524.3m | 478.7m | 485.1m – 516.1m |
| 2028 | 512.4m | 536.7m | 490m | 474.5m – 550.4m |
| 2030 | 524.3m | 549m | 501.3m | 464.7m – 583.8m |
| 2035 | 553.8m | 580m | 529.5m | 438.9m – 668.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead512m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±27mtypical miss · 25 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.18 | 7.61 | -10 | -4.57 – -1.78 |
| 2028 | -5.12 | 13.55 | -10 | -7.7 – -2.54 |
| 2030 | -7.07 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -3.49 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -4.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.49typical miss · 25 realized · 334% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.84(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13.84 | 19.22 | 8.45 | 12.79 – 14.88 |
| 2027 | 17.4 | 26.73 | 8.08 | 15.14 – 19.67 |
| 2029 | 19.15 | 31.19 | 7.12 | 15.78 – 22.53 |
| 2034 | 20.55 | 36 | 3.53 | 14.66 – 26.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.63· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.74 | 9.5 | 7.98 | 8.47 – 9.01 |
| 2028 | 7.84 | 9.15 | 6.53 | 7.26 – 8.42 |
| 2030 | 6.94 | 8.63 | 5.25 | 6.13 – 7.76 |
| 2035 | 4.69 | 7.08 | 2.3 | 3.57 – 5.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.48typical miss · 20 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ARB · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 3.8T | 2024 (9.27) |
| 2028 | 3.8T | 2025 (9.19) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 11684785774451.494 + -852734269339.1752·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.786 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.51 | 2025 (3.8T) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 12.6588 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.617 over 52 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.69 | 2023 (3.6T) |
| 2027 | 0.44 | 2024 (3.7T) |
| 2028 | 0.34 | 2025 (3.8T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 7.7984 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ARB?indicator= · API docs
