Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Burkina Faso: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Burkina Faso's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.889 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.5bn | 2023 (3.6) |
Latest observed-0.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.17 | 17.22 | -4.89 | 3.81 – 8.52 |
| 2028 | 6.9 | 26.04 | -12.25 | 2.66 – 11.13 |
| 2030 | 7.63 | 30 | -17.09 | 1.97 – 13.28 |
| 2035 | 9.45 | 30 | -25.5 | 0.81 – 18.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.77typical miss · 1 realized · 1128% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.4 | 41.07 | 30.49 | 34.03 – 36.78 |
| 2028 | 36.23 | 46.06 | 27.72 | 33.09 – 39.38 |
| 2030 | 37.06 | 49.74 | 26.08 | 32.29 – 41.84 |
| 2035 | 39.14 | 57.07 | 23.6 | 30.32 – 47.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.12typical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.6bn | 33.1bn | 26.5bn | 28.6bn – 30.5bn |
| 2028 | 34.3bn | 40.5bn | 29bn | 31.8bn – 36.9bn |
| 2030 | 39.1bn | 47bn | 32.3bn | 34.7bn – 43.6bn |
| 2035 | 51.1bn | 62.3bn | 41.4bn | 40.5bn – 61.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.9bntypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.05 | 12 | -0.03 | 4.79 – 7.32 |
| 2028 | 7.73 | 12 | -2.81 | 5.33 – 10.12 |
| 2030 | 9.4 | 12 | -4.21 | 6.03 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -7.24 | 6.38 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.28· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.65typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2k | 1.4k | 1.1k | 1.2k – 1.2k |
| 2028 | 1.4k | 1.6k | 1.2k | 1.3k – 1.5k |
| 2030 | 1.5k | 1.9k | 1.2k | 1.4k – 1.7k |
| 2035 | 1.9k | 2.4k | 1.5k | 1.5k – 2.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±103.98typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.25 | 64.08 | 47.22 | 54.15 – 58.36 |
| 2028 | 62.36 | 75.92 | 46.71 | 57.28 – 67.44 |
| 2030 | 68.46 | 85.98 | 48.26 | 60.29 – 76.63 |
| 2035 | 83.73 | 108.49 | 55.15 | 66.36 – 101.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead52.34· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.25typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.12 | 36.05 | 24.19 | 28.73 – 31.51 |
| 2028 | 30.33 | 40.6 | 20.06 | 27.3 – 33.35 |
| 2030 | 30.53 | 43.79 | 17.28 | 26.06 – 35.01 |
| 2035 | 31.06 | 49.8 | 12.31 | 23.22 – 38.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.87· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.15typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.53 | 14.04 | -5 | -5 – 1.18 |
| 2028 | -5 | 23.71 | -5 | -5 – 1.6 |
| 2030 | -5 | 32.06 | -5 | -5 – 3.62 |
| 2035 | -5 | 47.41 | -5 | -5 – 7.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.63typical miss · 1 realized · 221% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.37 | 17.73 | 15.18 | 15.86 – 16.87 |
| 2028 | 15.45 | 17.82 | 13.39 | 14.3 – 16.59 |
| 2030 | 14.53 | 17.59 | 11.87 | 12.88 – 16.17 |
| 2035 | 12.22 | 16.55 | 8.47 | 9.65 – 14.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.2typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.9m | 25.1m | 22.9m | 23.2m – 24.7m |
| 2028 | 24.5m | 25.7m | 23.4m | 22.7m – 26.3m |
| 2030 | 25.1m | 26.3m | 24m | 22.2m – 27.9m |
| 2035 | 26.5m | 27.8m | 25.4m | 21m – 32m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.1m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±691ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.41 | 8.33 | -2.03 | 1.63 – 3.19 |
| 2028 | 3.18 | 13.43 | -4.51 | 1.75 – 4.61 |
| 2030 | 3.95 | 15 | -5.97 | 1.98 – 5.92 |
| 2035 | 5.88 | 15 | -8.16 | 2.6 – 9.15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.43typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.48(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.22 | 3.7 | 2.74 | 3.09 – 3.35 |
| 2028 | 2.71 | 3.54 | 1.87 | 2.45 – 2.96 |
| 2030 | 2.19 | 3.27 | 1.11 | 1.85 – 2.53 |
| 2035 | 0.91 | 2.43 | 0 | 0.51 – 1.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.34· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BFA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 10.3bn | 2024 (3.44) |
| 2028 | 10.6bn | 2025 (3.48) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -15384133267.5263 + 7470311436.6565·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.74 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.91 | 2024 (23.1bn) |
| 2027 | 5.35 | 2025 (27.6bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 2.6166 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.603 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.97 | 2025 (27.6bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 20.6396 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BFA?indicator= · API docs
