Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Burkina Faso: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Burkina Faso's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.79 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11bn | 2024 (3.44) |
Latest observed8.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.63 | 20.84 | -1.58 | 7.19 – 12.07 |
| 2029 | 11.69 | 30 | -7.72 | 7.17 – 16.21 |
| 2031 | 13.75 | 30 | -11.31 | 7.53 – 19.96 |
| 2036 | 18.9 | 30 | -16.54 | 8.64 – 29.15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.63· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.4 | 41.07 | 30.49 | 34.03 – 36.78 |
| 2028 | 36.23 | 46.06 | 27.72 | 33.09 – 39.38 |
| 2030 | 37.06 | 49.74 | 26.08 | 32.29 – 41.84 |
| 2035 | 39.14 | 57.07 | 23.6 | 30.32 – 47.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.12typical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 35.2bn | 39.2bn | 31.8bn | 34.1bn – 36.3bn |
| 2029 | 41.9bn | 48.7bn | 36bn | 38.8bn – 45bn |
| 2031 | 48.6bn | 57.4bn | 41bn | 43.1bn – 54.1bn |
| 2036 | 65.3bn | 77.8bn | 54.5bn | 51.8bn – 78.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.92 | 10.32 | 0.24 | 3.94 – 5.9 |
| 2029 | 5.02 | 12 | -3.08 | 3.22 – 6.82 |
| 2031 | 5.12 | 12 | -5.34 | 2.7 – 7.54 |
| 2036 | 5.36 | 12 | -9.43 | 1.66 – 9.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.88· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.4k | 1.6k | 1.3k | 1.4k – 1.5k |
| 2029 | 1.6k | 1.9k | 1.4k | 1.5k – 1.8k |
| 2031 | 1.9k | 2.2k | 1.6k | 1.7k – 2.1k |
| 2036 | 2.5k | 3k | 2k | 1.9k – 3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 50.93 | 59.68 | 40.84 | 48.77 – 53.1 |
| 2029 | 55.2 | 70.36 | 37.72 | 50.22 – 60.19 |
| 2031 | 59.47 | 79.04 | 36.9 | 51.7 – 67.24 |
| 2036 | 70.15 | 97.82 | 38.22 | 54.67 – 85.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50.08· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.12 | 36.05 | 24.19 | 28.73 – 31.51 |
| 2028 | 30.33 | 40.6 | 20.06 | 27.3 – 33.35 |
| 2030 | 30.53 | 43.79 | 17.28 | 26.06 – 35.01 |
| 2035 | 31.06 | 49.8 | 12.31 | 23.22 – 38.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.87· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.15typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.59(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.76 | 19.37 | -5 | -0.97 – 6.48 |
| 2029 | 5.68 | 34.45 | -5 | -0.97 – 12.33 |
| 2031 | 8.6 | 45.74 | -5 | -0.33 – 17.52 |
| 2036 | 15.9 | 50 | -5 | 1.71 – 30.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.75· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.37 | 17.73 | 15.18 | 15.86 – 16.87 |
| 2028 | 15.45 | 17.82 | 13.39 | 14.3 – 16.59 |
| 2030 | 14.53 | 17.59 | 11.87 | 12.88 – 16.17 |
| 2035 | 12.22 | 16.55 | 8.47 | 9.65 – 14.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.2typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 24.5m | 25.7m | 23.4m | 23.8m – 25.3m |
| 2029 | 25.1m | 26.3m | 24m | 23.3m – 27m |
| 2031 | 25.8m | 27m | 24.6m | 22.8m – 28.7m |
| 2036 | 27.4m | 28.6m | 26.2m | 21.7m – 33m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.1m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.41 | 8.33 | -2.03 | 1.63 – 3.19 |
| 2028 | 3.18 | 13.43 | -4.51 | 1.75 – 4.61 |
| 2030 | 3.95 | 15 | -5.97 | 1.98 – 5.92 |
| 2035 | 5.88 | 15 | -8.16 | 2.6 – 9.15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.43typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.48(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.22 | 3.7 | 2.74 | 3.09 – 3.35 |
| 2028 | 2.71 | 3.54 | 1.87 | 2.45 – 2.96 |
| 2030 | 2.19 | 3.27 | 1.11 | 1.85 – 2.53 |
| 2035 | 0.91 | 2.43 | 0 | 0.51 – 1.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.34· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/BFA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 |
| 11.2bn |
| 2025 (3.48) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -15222312362.9408 + 7607323031.3113·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.74 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.91 | 2024 (23.1bn) |
| 2027 | 5.35 | 2025 (27.6bn) |
| 2028 | 5.84 | 2026 (32.5bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 2.6166 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.617 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 54.51 | 2024 (23.1bn) |
| 2028 | 60.81 | 2025 (27.6bn) |
| 2029 | 67.66 | 2026 (32.5bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 22.072 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/BFA?indicator= · API docs
