Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Chile: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Chile's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.579 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.61 | 2024 (8.72) |
Latest observed-0.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.18 | 6.34 | -6.7 | -1.53 – 1.16 |
| 2029 | 1.05 | 12.35 | -10.24 | -1.3 – 3.41 |
| 2031 | 2.29 | 16.87 | -12.29 | -0.87 – 5.45 |
| 2036 | 5.38 | 26 | -15.24 | 0.31 – 10.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.81· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.44 | 41.26 | 30.39 | 34.04 – 36.84 |
| 2028 | 37.19 | 47.27 | 28.45 | 33.96 – 40.42 |
| 2030 | 38.94 | 51.96 | 27.66 | 33.97 – 43.92 |
| 2035 | 43.32 | 61.73 | 27.37 | 33.76 – 52.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.98· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.03typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed357.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 424.5bn | 489.7bn | 368bn | 410bn – 439.1bn |
| 2029 | 468.1bn | 581.1bn | 370.2bn | 432.2bn – 504bn |
| 2031 | 511.7bn | 657.5bn | 385.3bn | 453.4bn – 570bn |
| 2036 | 620.7bn | 826.9bn | 441.9bn | 491.9bn – 749.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead425.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.89 | 10.11 | -5.23 | 0.49 – 3.3 |
| 2029 | 0.75 | 12 | -10 | -1.68 – 3.17 |
| 2031 | -0.4 | 12 | -10 | -3.55 – 2.74 |
| 2036 | -3.28 | 12 | -10 | -8.13 – 1.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.69· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 21k | 24.3k | 18.1k | 20.2k – 21.7k |
| 2029 | 22.9k | 28.6k | 17.9k | 21.1k – 24.7k |
| 2031 | 24.8k | 32.2k | 18.4k | 22k – 27.7k |
| 2036 | 29.6k | 40.1k | 20.6k | 23.5k – 35.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 44.75 | 47.06 | 42.08 | 43.36 – 46.13 |
| 2029 | 49.24 | 53.24 | 44.62 | 45.6 – 52.88 |
| 2031 | 53.73 | 58.9 | 47.78 | 47.63 – 59.83 |
| 2036 | 64.97 | 72.27 | 56.54 | 51.49 – 78.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.08· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.7 | 40.76 | 20.64 | 28.67 – 32.74 |
| 2028 | 31.27 | 48.7 | 13.84 | 27.1 – 35.44 |
| 2030 | 31.84 | 54.33 | 9.34 | 25.85 – 37.83 |
| 2035 | 33.25 | 65.07 | 1.44 | 23.06 – 43.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.36typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.49 | 10.56 | -5 | 0.66 – 4.32 |
| 2029 | 0.65 | 14.64 | -5 | -2.5 – 3.8 |
| 2031 | -1.19 | 16.87 | -5 | -5 – 2.91 |
| 2036 | -5 | 20.54 | -5 | -5 – 1.46 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.15· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.83 | 26.84 | 21.22 | 23.02 – 24.64 |
| 2028 | 23.35 | 28.57 | 18.83 | 21.48 – 25.21 |
| 2030 | 22.86 | 29.6 | 17.03 | 20.07 – 25.66 |
| 2035 | 21.65 | 31.18 | 13.4 | 16.83 – 26.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.54typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 20.1m | 21.1m | 19.3m | 19.5m – 20.8m |
| 2029 | 20.5m | 21.4m | 19.6m | 18.9m – 22m |
| 2031 | 20.8m | 21.8m | 19.9m | 18.4m – 23.1m |
| 2036 | 21.6m | 22.6m | 20.6m | 17.1m – 26.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.3m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.56 | 15 | -7.23 | 0.89 – 4.23 |
| 2028 | 4.3 | 15 | -10 | 1.27 – 7.34 |
| 2030 | 6.04 | 15 | -10 | 1.91 – 10.18 |
| 2035 | 10.4 | 15 | -10 | 3.57 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.83typical miss · 1 realized · 164% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.3bn | 65.4bn | 37.1bn | 48.3bn – 54.3bn |
| 2028 | 55.7bn | 80.2bn | 31.1bn | 49.2bn – 62.1bn |
| 2030 | 60bn | 91.7bn | 28.4bn | 50.4bn – 69.7bn |
| 2035 | 71bn | 115.8bn | 26.2bn | 52.8bn – 89.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.32 | 5.84 | 2.81 | 4.02 – 4.63 |
| 2028 | 4.45 | 7.08 | 1.83 | 3.84 – 5.07 |
| 2030 | 4.51 | 7.9 | 1.12 | 3.63 – 5.39 |
| 2035 | 4.56 | 9.36 | 0 | 3.1 – 6.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.14· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.3bn | 65.5bn | 37.1bn | 48.3bn – 54.3bn |
| 2028 | 55.7bn | 80.2bn | 31.2bn | 49.3bn – 62.1bn |
| 2030 | 60.1bn | 91.8bn | 28.4bn | 50.4bn – 69.8bn |
| 2035 | 71.1bn | 115.9bn | 26.3bn | 52.9bn – 89.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.99 | 9.31 | 6.66 | 7.65 – 8.32 |
| 2029 | 7.76 | 10.05 | 5.46 | 7.03 – 8.48 |
| 2031 | 7.53 | 10.49 | 4.56 | 6.47 – 8.58 |
| 2036 | 6.95 | 11.14 | 2.76 | 5.2 – 8.7 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.97· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CHL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 |
| 7.94 |
| 2025 (8.97) |
| 2029 | 6.81 | 2026 (8.1) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -3.6182 + 1.2875·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.561 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.93 | 2024 (-1.5) |
| 2028 | 20.66 | 2025 (-2.3) |
| 2029 | 17.42 | 2026 (-0.8) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 15.6884 + -2.1631·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.515 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.27 | 2026 (-0.8) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 5.7303 + 0.5779·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CHL?indicator= · API docs
