Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Chile: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Chile's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.581 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.1 | 2023 (9.01) |
Latest observed-0.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.75 | 5.83 | -7.32 | -2.11 – 0.61 |
| 2028 | 0.15 | 11.54 | -11.24 | -2.22 – 2.53 |
| 2030 | 1.06 | 15.76 | -13.65 | -2.03 – 4.14 |
| 2035 | 3.31 | 24.11 | -17.48 | -1.46 – 8.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.45typical miss · 1 realized · 150% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.44 | 41.26 | 30.39 | 34.04 – 36.84 |
| 2028 | 37.19 | 47.27 | 28.45 | 33.96 – 40.42 |
| 2030 | 38.94 | 51.96 | 27.66 | 33.97 – 43.92 |
| 2035 | 43.32 | 61.73 | 27.37 | 33.76 – 52.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.98· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.03typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed357.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 368.5bn | 431.9bn | 313.6bn | 355.1bn – 382bn |
| 2028 | 396.7bn | 506.4bn | 301.6bn | 364.6bn – 428.8bn |
| 2030 | 424.9bn | 566.6bn | 302.2bn | 374.1bn – 475.8bn |
| 2035 | 495.4bn | 695.7bn | 321.8bn | 392.3bn – 598.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead419.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±33.7bntypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.17 | 12 | -10 | 0.06 – 6.29 |
| 2028 | 4.62 | 12 | -10 | -0.91 – 10.15 |
| 2030 | 6.08 | 12 | -10 | -1.26 – 12 |
| 2035 | 9.71 | 12 | -10 | -1.54 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.49· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.57typical miss · 1 realized · 428% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.5k | 21.8k | 15.6k | 17.8k – 19.2k |
| 2028 | 19.7k | 25.5k | 14.7k | 18.1k – 21.3k |
| 2030 | 20.9k | 28.4k | 14.5k | 18.4k – 23.5k |
| 2035 | 24k | 34.6k | 14.9k | 18.9k – 29.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.7k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.99 | 46.29 | 41.34 | 42.63 – 45.36 |
| 2028 | 48.97 | 52.95 | 44.38 | 45.35 – 52.6 |
| 2030 | 53.96 | 59.09 | 48.03 | 47.83 – 60.08 |
| 2035 | 66.42 | 73.68 | 58.03 | 52.64 – 80.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.19typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.7 | 40.76 | 20.64 | 28.67 – 32.74 |
| 2028 | 31.27 | 48.7 | 13.84 | 27.1 – 35.44 |
| 2030 | 31.84 | 54.33 | 9.34 | 25.85 – 37.83 |
| 2035 | 33.25 | 65.07 | 1.44 | 23.06 – 43.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.36typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.52 | 12.64 | -4.17 | 2.65 – 6.39 |
| 2028 | 4.4 | 18.46 | -5 | 1.08 – 7.73 |
| 2030 | 4.29 | 22.43 | -5 | -0.08 – 8.65 |
| 2035 | 3.99 | 29.65 | -5 | -2.34 – 10.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.16· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.82typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.83 | 26.84 | 21.22 | 23.02 – 24.64 |
| 2028 | 23.35 | 28.57 | 18.83 | 21.48 – 25.21 |
| 2030 | 22.86 | 29.6 | 17.03 | 20.07 – 25.66 |
| 2035 | 21.65 | 31.18 | 13.4 | 16.83 – 26.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.54typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.8m | 20.8m | 19m | 19.2m – 20.4m |
| 2028 | 19.9m | 20.9m | 19.1m | 18.5m – 21.4m |
| 2030 | 20m | 21m | 19.2m | 17.8m – 22.3m |
| 2035 | 20.3m | 21.3m | 19.4m | 16.1m – 24.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.3m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±321.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.56 | 15 | -7.23 | 0.89 – 4.23 |
| 2028 | 4.3 | 15 | -10 | 1.27 – 7.34 |
| 2030 | 6.04 | 15 | -10 | 1.91 – 10.18 |
| 2035 | 10.4 | 15 | -10 | 3.57 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.83typical miss · 1 realized · 164% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.3bn | 65.4bn | 37.1bn | 48.3bn – 54.3bn |
| 2028 | 55.7bn | 80.2bn | 31.1bn | 49.2bn – 62.1bn |
| 2030 | 60bn | 91.7bn | 28.4bn | 50.4bn – 69.7bn |
| 2035 | 71bn | 115.8bn | 26.2bn | 52.8bn – 89.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.32 | 5.84 | 2.81 | 4.02 – 4.63 |
| 2028 | 4.45 | 7.08 | 1.83 | 3.84 – 5.07 |
| 2030 | 4.51 | 7.9 | 1.12 | 3.63 – 5.39 |
| 2035 | 4.56 | 9.36 | 0 | 3.1 – 6.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.14· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.3bn | 65.5bn | 37.1bn | 48.3bn – 54.3bn |
| 2028 | 55.7bn | 80.2bn | 31.2bn | 49.3bn – 62.1bn |
| 2030 | 60.1bn | 91.8bn | 28.4bn | 50.4bn – 69.8bn |
| 2035 | 71.1bn | 115.9bn | 26.3bn | 52.9bn – 89.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.67 | 10.37 | 6.97 | 8.27 – 9.07 |
| 2028 | 8.05 | 11 | 5.11 | 7.22 – 8.89 |
| 2030 | 7.44 | 11.25 | 3.64 | 6.26 – 8.62 |
| 2035 | 5.91 | 11.29 | 0.53 | 4.14 – 7.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.83typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CHL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 |
| 7.73 |
| 2024 (8.72) |
| 2028 | 8.05 | 2025 (8.97) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -3.4738 + 1.2847·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.574 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.74 | 2023 (-3.1) |
| 2027 | 17.76 | 2024 (-1.2) |
| 2028 | 17.76 | 2025 (-1.2) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 15.2418 + -2.0957·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.517 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.08 | 2025 (-1.2) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 5.7733 + 0.5783·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CHL?indicator= · API docs
