Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Caribbean small states: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Caribbean small states's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.873 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.61 | 2025 (95.1bn) |
Latest observed95.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 99.7bn | 115.4bn | 86.1bn | 96.2bn – 103.2bn |
| 2028 | 111.5bn | 138.8bn | 87.9bn | 102.9bn – 120.1bn |
| 2030 | 123.3bn | 158.5bn | 92.8bn | 109.3bn – 137.4bn |
| 2035 | 152.8bn | 202.6bn | 109.7bn | 121.1bn – 184.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead100.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±664mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.74 | 12 | -6.57 | 5.66 – 11.82 |
| 2028 | 10.37 | 12 | -10 | 4.77 – 12 |
| 2030 | 11.99 | 12 | -10 | 4.45 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 0.77 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.02typical miss · 1 realized · 50% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.8k | 25.3k | 18.8k | 21k – 22.6k |
| 2028 | 24.3k | 30.3k | 19k | 22.4k – 26.2k |
| 2030 | 26.7k | 34.6k | 19.9k | 23.6k – 29.8k |
| 2035 | 32.8k | 43.9k | 23.2k | 26k – 39.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±143.24typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.74 | 5.22 | -4.05 | -0.27 – 1.75 |
| 2028 | -1.39 | 6.37 | -5 | -3.17 – 0.4 |
| 2030 | -3.51 | 6.5 | -5 | -5 – -1.01 |
| 2035 | -5 | 9.16 | -5 | -5 – -1.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.95· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.6m | 4.8m | 4.4m | 4.4m – 4.7m |
| 2028 | 4.6m | 4.8m | 4.4m | 4.2m – 4.9m |
| 2030 | 4.6m | 4.8m | 4.4m | 4.1m – 5.1m |
| 2035 | 4.6m | 4.9m | 4.4m | 3.7m – 5.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.6m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±23.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.12 | 15 | 4.29 | 10.62 – 13.61 |
| 2028 | 15 | 15 | 1.45 | 12.02 – 15 |
| 2030 | 15 | 15 | -2.5 | 10.88 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -9.74 | 8.48 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.15typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.4 | 6.41 | 2.39 | 4.02 – 4.78 |
| 2028 | 5.39 | 8.88 | 1.91 | 4.6 – 6.18 |
| 2030 | 5.88 | 10.38 | 1.38 | 4.72 – 7.04 |
| 2035 | 6.27 | 12.63 | 0 | 4.29 – 8.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.1· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 8.08 | 5.92 | 6.72 – 7.28 |
| 2028 | 5.89 | 7.77 | 4.01 | 5.32 – 6.46 |
| 2030 | 4.78 | 7.2 | 2.35 | 4.02 – 5.53 |
| 2035 | 2 | 5.43 | 0 | 1.16 – 2.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.14· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/CSS · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 15.5806 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.871 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.9bn | 2025 (7.55) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 119494319325.1946 + -6830868683.7049·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.511 over 59 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.17 | 2023 (79.6bn) |
| 2027 | -2.39 | 2024 (90.4bn) |
| 2028 | -2.93 | 2025 (95.1bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 7.8275 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/CSS?indicator= · API docs
