Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Dominican Republic: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Dominican Republic's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.916 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 100.4bn | 2024 (58.8) |
Latest observed-1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.38 | 1.82 | -4.57 | -2.05 – -0.7 |
| 2028 | -1.73 | 3.81 | -7.26 | -2.94 – -0.51 |
| 2030 | -2.08 | 5.06 | -9.21 | -3.7 – -0.45 |
| 2035 | -2.95 | 7.15 | -13.05 | -5.48 – -0.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.13typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.67 | 28.16 | 19.78 | 22.65 – 24.69 |
| 2028 | 23.74 | 31.51 | 17 | 21.49 – 25.99 |
| 2030 | 23.81 | 33.84 | 15.11 | 20.47 – 27.15 |
| 2035 | 23.98 | 38.17 | 11.67 | 18.11 – 29.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.68· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.16typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed127.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 131.7bn | 150.4bn | 115.4bn | 127.3bn – 136bn |
| 2028 | 143bn | 175.5bn | 114.9bn | 132.3bn – 153.8bn |
| 2030 | 154.4bn | 196.3bn | 118bn | 136.9bn – 171.9bn |
| 2035 | 182.8bn | 242.1bn | 131.3bn | 144.8bn – 220.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead153.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±13.7bntypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.39 | 12 | -10 | -1.37 – 6.14 |
| 2028 | 2.77 | 12 | -10 | -3.79 – 9.34 |
| 2030 | 3.16 | 12 | -10 | -5.4 – 11.72 |
| 2035 | 4.13 | 12 | -10 | -8.28 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.92· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.21typical miss · 1 realized · 48% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.4k | 13.1k | 9.9k | 11k – 11.8k |
| 2028 | 12.2k | 15.1k | 9.7k | 11.3k – 13.1k |
| 2030 | 13k | 16.8k | 9.8k | 11.6k – 14.5k |
| 2035 | 15.1k | 20.5k | 10.5k | 12k – 18.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 60.42 | 72.99 | 45.9 | 57.51 – 63.32 |
| 2028 | 63.25 | 85.03 | 38.11 | 56.86 – 69.63 |
| 2030 | 66.08 | 94.2 | 33.63 | 56.47 – 75.69 |
| 2035 | 73.16 | 112.93 | 27.26 | 55.33 – 90.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead57.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.22typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.01 | 32.89 | 23.14 | 26.82 – 29.21 |
| 2028 | 28.33 | 36.79 | 19.88 | 25.68 – 30.99 |
| 2030 | 28.65 | 39.56 | 17.74 | 24.69 – 32.62 |
| 2035 | 29.45 | 44.88 | 14.02 | 22.38 – 36.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.6typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.33 | 9.99 | -1.74 | 3 – 5.65 |
| 2028 | 5.13 | 14.94 | -5 | 2.71 – 7.55 |
| 2030 | 5.93 | 18.6 | -5 | 2.64 – 9.21 |
| 2035 | 7.92 | 25.84 | -5 | 2.68 – 13.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.87· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.77typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.1 | 28.37 | 20.4 | 23.1 – 25.09 |
| 2028 | 22.31 | 29.71 | 15.9 | 20.18 – 24.44 |
| 2030 | 20.52 | 30.07 | 12.25 | 17.52 – 23.53 |
| 2035 | 16.06 | 29.56 | 4.35 | 11.56 – 20.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.9· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.14typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.5m | 12m | 11m | 11.1m – 11.8m |
| 2028 | 11.6m | 12.1m | 11.1m | 10.7m – 12.5m |
| 2030 | 11.7m | 12.3m | 11.2m | 10.4m – 13m |
| 2035 | 12m | 12.5m | 11.4m | 9.5m – 14.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±517.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.28 | 14.19 | -10 | -1.48 – 2.03 |
| 2028 | 0.13 | 15 | -10 | -2.93 – 3.19 |
| 2030 | -0.01 | 15 | -10 | -3.98 – 3.96 |
| 2035 | -0.37 | 15 | -10 | -6.03 – 5.29 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.02· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.22typical miss · 1 realized · 503% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.9bn | 17.5bn | 12.3bn | 14.2bn – 15.5bn |
| 2028 | 15.5bn | 20.1bn | 11bn | 14.1bn – 17bn |
| 2030 | 16.2bn | 22bn | 10.4bn | 14bn – 18.4bn |
| 2035 | 17.8bn | 26.1bn | 9.6bn | 13.7bn – 22bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.96 | 5.33 | 2.59 | 3.69 – 4.24 |
| 2028 | 3.95 | 6.33 | 1.57 | 3.4 – 4.5 |
| 2030 | 3.94 | 7.01 | 0.88 | 3.16 – 4.73 |
| 2035 | 3.94 | 8.28 | 0 | 2.64 – 5.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.05· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15bn | 17.6bn | 12.4bn | 14.3bn – 15.6bn |
| 2028 | 15.7bn | 20.2bn | 11.2bn | 14.2bn – 17.1bn |
| 2030 | 16.3bn | 22.2bn | 10.5bn | 14.1bn – 18.5bn |
| 2035 | 18bn | 26.3bn | 9.8bn | 13.9bn – 22.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.74 | 7.09 | 2.39 | 4.3 – 5.18 |
| 2028 | 4.04 | 8.12 | 0 | 3.22 – 4.86 |
| 2030 | 3.34 | 8.6 | 0 | 2.26 – 4.41 |
| 2035 | 1.58 | 9.02 | 0 | 0.19 – 2.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.56typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/DOM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 100.8bn | 2025 (59) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -13044571479.0051 + 1929953037.8851·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.876 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 76.35 | 2023 (120.5bn) |
| 2027 | 78.25 | 2024 (124.3bn) |
| 2028 | 79.81 | 2025 (127.4bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 16.3819 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.556 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.09 | 2024 (5.31) |
| 2027 | -5.6 | 2025 (5.09) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -17.3011 + 2.2982·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/DOM?indicator= · API docs
