Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Dominican Republic: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Dominican Republic's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.916 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 106.6bn | 2024 (58.8) |
Latest observed-1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.48 | 1.79 | -4.75 | -2.17 – -0.79 |
| 2029 | -1.44 | 4.22 | -7.1 | -2.66 – -0.22 |
| 2031 | -1.4 | 5.9 | -8.7 | -3 – 0.2 |
| 2036 | -1.3 | 9.03 | -11.63 | -3.61 – 1.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.52· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.67 | 28.16 | 19.78 | 22.65 – 24.69 |
| 2028 | 23.74 | 31.51 | 17 | 21.49 – 25.99 |
| 2030 | 23.81 | 33.84 | 15.11 | 20.47 – 27.15 |
| 2035 | 23.98 | 38.17 | 11.67 | 18.11 – 29.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.68· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.16typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed127.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 140.8bn | 159.6bn | 124.5bn | 136.3bn – 145.3bn |
| 2029 | 153.2bn | 185.7bn | 125bn | 141.9bn – 164.5bn |
| 2031 | 165.6bn | 207.6bn | 129.2bn | 146.8bn – 184.4bn |
| 2036 | 196.6bn | 255.9bn | 145.1bn | 155.8bn – 237.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead143.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.78 | 11.34 | -4.65 | 1.3 – 4.25 |
| 2029 | 0.73 | 12 | -10 | -1.79 – 3.26 |
| 2031 | -1.31 | 12 | -10 | -4.6 – 1.99 |
| 2036 | -6.41 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -0.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.83· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.8k | 14.7k | 11.3k | 12.4k – 13.3k |
| 2029 | 14.1k | 17.2k | 11.3k | 13k – 15.1k |
| 2031 | 15.3k | 19.3k | 11.8k | 13.5k – 17k |
| 2036 | 18.3k | 24k | 13.3k | 14.5k – 22.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 59.06 | 71.65 | 44.54 | 56.18 – 61.95 |
| 2029 | 60.59 | 82.4 | 35.43 | 54.33 – 66.85 |
| 2031 | 62.12 | 90.27 | 29.63 | 52.82 – 71.42 |
| 2036 | 65.94 | 105.75 | 20 | 49.26 – 82.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead58.78· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.01 | 32.89 | 23.14 | 26.82 – 29.21 |
| 2028 | 28.33 | 36.79 | 19.88 | 25.68 – 30.99 |
| 2030 | 28.65 | 39.56 | 17.74 | 24.69 – 32.62 |
| 2035 | 29.45 | 44.88 | 14.02 | 22.38 – 36.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.6typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.61 | 9.52 | 1.42 | 4.65 – 6.57 |
| 2029 | 7.33 | 14.11 | 0.07 | 5.47 – 9.18 |
| 2031 | 9.05 | 17.8 | -0.33 | 6.38 – 11.71 |
| 2036 | 13.34 | 25.72 | 0.08 | 8.46 – 18.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.87· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.1 | 28.37 | 20.4 | 23.1 – 25.09 |
| 2028 | 22.31 | 29.71 | 15.9 | 20.18 – 24.44 |
| 2030 | 20.52 | 30.07 | 12.25 | 17.52 – 23.53 |
| 2035 | 16.06 | 29.56 | 4.35 | 11.56 – 20.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.9· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.14typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.9m | 11.4m | 10.4m | 10.5m – 11.2m |
| 2029 | 10.3m | 11m | 9.7m | 9.5m – 11m |
| 2031 | 9.7m | 10.6m | 8.9m | 8.6m – 10.8m |
| 2036 | 8.2m | 9.4m | 7m | 6.5m – 9.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.28 | 14.19 | -10 | -1.48 – 2.03 |
| 2028 | 0.13 | 15 | -10 | -2.93 – 3.19 |
| 2030 | -0.01 | 15 | -10 | -3.98 – 3.96 |
| 2035 | -0.37 | 15 | -10 | -6.03 – 5.29 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.02· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.22typical miss · 1 realized · 503% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.9bn | 17.5bn | 12.3bn | 14.2bn – 15.5bn |
| 2028 | 15.5bn | 20.1bn | 11bn | 14.1bn – 17bn |
| 2030 | 16.2bn | 22bn | 10.4bn | 14bn – 18.4bn |
| 2035 | 17.8bn | 26.1bn | 9.6bn | 13.7bn – 22bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.96 | 5.33 | 2.59 | 3.69 – 4.24 |
| 2028 | 3.95 | 6.33 | 1.57 | 3.4 – 4.5 |
| 2030 | 3.94 | 7.01 | 0.88 | 3.16 – 4.73 |
| 2035 | 3.94 | 8.28 | 0 | 2.64 – 5.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.05· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15bn | 17.6bn | 12.4bn | 14.3bn – 15.6bn |
| 2028 | 15.7bn | 20.2bn | 11.2bn | 14.2bn – 17.1bn |
| 2030 | 16.3bn | 22.2bn | 10.5bn | 14.1bn – 18.5bn |
| 2035 | 18bn | 26.3bn | 9.8bn | 13.9bn – 22.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.91 | 6.63 | 3.2 | 4.57 – 5.26 |
| 2029 | 4.14 | 7.12 | 1.17 | 3.49 – 4.8 |
| 2031 | 3.37 | 7.21 | 0 | 2.52 – 4.23 |
| 2036 | 1.45 | 6.87 | 0 | 0.38 – 2.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.1· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/DOM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 107bn | 2025 (59) |
| 2029 | 105.6bn | 2026 (58.3) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -12906886287.4604 + 2032800781.6667·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.861 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 74.29 | 2024 (124.3bn) |
| 2028 | 75.7 | 2025 (127.4bn) |
| 2029 | 79.64 | 2026 (136.1bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 18.19 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.523 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -5.26 | 2025 (5.09) |
| 2028 | -4.82 | 2026 (5.3) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -15.9524 + 2.0999·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/DOM?indicator= · API docs
