Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Algeria: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Algeria's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.878 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.94 | 2023 (47.7) |
Latest observed-1.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.39 | 13.04 | -13.82 | -3.14 – 2.37 |
| 2029 | 1.24 | 24.5 | -22.02 | -3.56 – 6.05 |
| 2031 | 2.87 | 30 | -27.16 | -3.49 – 9.23 |
| 2036 | 6.94 | 30 | -30 | -2.83 – 16.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.09· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.63 | 28.32 | 6.51 | 14.7 – 18.57 |
| 2028 | 16.24 | 36.48 | 0 | 12.56 – 19.91 |
| 2030 | 15.84 | 41.97 | 0 | 10.84 – 20.84 |
| 2035 | 14.84 | 51.79 | 0 | 7.18 – 22.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.11· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.46typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed287bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 334.2bn | 376.3bn | 297.7bn | 323.8bn – 344.5bn |
| 2029 | 377.9bn | 450.8bn | 314.7bn | 349.9bn – 405.8bn |
| 2031 | 421.6bn | 515.8bn | 340bn | 373.7bn – 469.5bn |
| 2036 | 530.9bn | 664bn | 415.5bn | 420.7bn – 641bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead336.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.83 | 4.47 | 3.28 | 3.67 – 4 |
| 2029 | 3.9 | 5.01 | 2.94 | 3.53 – 4.27 |
| 2031 | 3.97 | 5.4 | 2.73 | 3.41 – 4.52 |
| 2036 | 4.14 | 6.16 | 2.38 | 3.14 – 5.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.81· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.9k | 7.9k | 6.1k | 6.7k – 7.2k |
| 2029 | 7.7k | 9.4k | 6.3k | 7.1k – 8.3k |
| 2031 | 8.5k | 10.6k | 6.7k | 7.5k – 9.5k |
| 2036 | 10.5k | 13.5k | 7.9k | 8.3k – 12.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.9k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 62.16 | 71.43 | 51.46 | 59.74 – 64.58 |
| 2029 | 68.07 | 84.14 | 49.54 | 62.34 – 73.81 |
| 2031 | 73.99 | 94.73 | 50.06 | 64.88 – 83.1 |
| 2036 | 88.78 | 118.11 | 54.94 | 70.06 – 107.5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead61.1· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.01 | 24.17 | 17.86 | 20.19 – 21.83 |
| 2028 | 18.76 | 24.23 | 13.28 | 17.02 – 20.49 |
| 2030 | 16.5 | 23.56 | 9.43 | 14.1 – 18.9 |
| 2035 | 10.85 | 20.84 | 0.86 | 7.58 – 14.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.47· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.39typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.87 | 9.41 | -2.08 | 2.57 – 5.16 |
| 2029 | 5.94 | 15.55 | -4.36 | 3.52 – 8.36 |
| 2031 | 8.01 | 20.42 | -5 | 4.62 – 11.41 |
| 2036 | 13.2 | 30.75 | -5 | 7.2 – 19.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.24· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.52 | 47.11 | 34.81 | 38.93 – 42.11 |
| 2028 | 43.14 | 54.55 | 33.25 | 39.44 – 46.84 |
| 2030 | 45.76 | 60.5 | 32.99 | 39.99 – 51.53 |
| 2035 | 52.31 | 70 | 34.25 | 40.96 – 63.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.58typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 47.7m | 49.9m | 45.6m | 46.2m – 49.1m |
| 2029 | 48.1m | 50.4m | 46m | 44.6m – 51.7m |
| 2031 | 48.6m | 50.9m | 46.4m | 43.1m – 54.1m |
| 2036 | 49.7m | 52.1m | 47.5m | 39.4m – 60m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead48.5m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.47 | 15 | -6 | 2.66 – 6.29 |
| 2028 | 8.11 | 15 | -10 | 4.7 – 11.52 |
| 2030 | 11.74 | 15 | -10 | 6.9 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 7.08 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.11· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.58typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.8bn | 70.1bn | 21.4bn | 41.3bn – 50.2bn |
| 2028 | 39.6bn | 81.7bn | 0 | 31.2bn – 47.9bn |
| 2030 | 33.4bn | 87.8bn | 0 | 22.4bn – 44.4bn |
| 2035 | 17.9bn | 94.8bn | 0 | 3.2bn – 32.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.53(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16.89 | 20.84 | 12.94 | 16.01 – 17.76 |
| 2027 | 17.32 | 24.15 | 10.48 | 15.44 – 19.2 |
| 2029 | 17.53 | 26.35 | 8.7 | 14.78 – 20.28 |
| 2034 | 17.7 | 30.18 | 5.22 | 12.96 – 22.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.4· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.9bn | 94.1bn | 51.7bn | 68.5bn – 77.3bn |
| 2028 | 73.7bn | 110.4bn | 36.9bn | 64.5bn – 82.8bn |
| 2030 | 74.4bn | 121.9bn | 27bn | 61.2bn – 87.6bn |
| 2035 | 76.3bn | 143.4bn | 9.2bn | 53.8bn – 98.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead72.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.09 | 12.03 | 10.15 | 10.75 – 11.43 |
| 2028 | 10.01 | 11.63 | 8.38 | 9.27 – 10.75 |
| 2030 | 8.92 | 11.02 | 6.82 | 7.89 – 9.96 |
| 2035 | 6.21 | 9.18 | 3.24 | 4.76 – 7.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.44· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/DZA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 |
| 18.03 |
| 2024 (48.1) |
| 2028 | 19.33 | 2025 (54.1) |
| 2029 | 20.44 | 2026 (59.2) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 7.5844 + 0.2172·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.745 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 32.54 | 2024 (4.05) |
| 2028 | 25.96 | 2025 (1.42) |
| 2029 | 29.67 | 2026 (2.9) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 22.4162 + 2.5012·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.559 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.86 | 2026 (59.2) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 0.5931 + 0.1566·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/DZA?indicator= · API docs
