Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Algeria: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Algeria's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.878 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.94 | 2023 (47.7) |
Latest observed-0.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.84 | 5.22 | -20.9 | -10.63 – -5.05 |
| 2028 | -5.72 | 16.9 | -28.34 | -10.61 – -0.83 |
| 2030 | -3.6 | 25.61 | -30 | -9.84 – 2.65 |
| 2035 | 1.71 | 30 | -30 | -6.99 – 10.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.9· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.04typical miss · 1 realized · 880% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.63 | 28.32 | 6.51 | 14.7 – 18.57 |
| 2028 | 16.24 | 36.48 | 0 | 12.56 – 19.91 |
| 2030 | 15.84 | 41.97 | 0 | 10.84 – 20.84 |
| 2035 | 14.84 | 51.79 | 0 | 7.18 – 22.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.11· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.46typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed287bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 301.7bn | 344.2bn | 264.8bn | 291.8bn – 311.6bn |
| 2028 | 338.9bn | 412.6bn | 275bn | 313.8bn – 364bn |
| 2030 | 376.1bn | 471.2bn | 293.7bn | 333.4bn – 418.8bn |
| 2035 | 469.2bn | 603.7bn | 352.6bn | 371.8bn – 566.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead352.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±30.2bntypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.82(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.12 | 11.54 | -2.3 | 2.82 – 5.43 |
| 2028 | 4.91 | 12 | -6.22 | 2.53 – 7.29 |
| 2030 | 5.69 | 12 | -8.68 | 2.47 – 8.91 |
| 2035 | 7.66 | 12 | -10 | 2.52 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.81· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.32typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.3k | 7.3k | 5.5k | 6.1k – 6.5k |
| 2028 | 6.9k | 8.6k | 5.5k | 6.4k – 7.5k |
| 2030 | 7.6k | 9.7k | 5.7k | 6.7k – 8.5k |
| 2035 | 9.2k | 12.2k | 6.6k | 7.3k – 11.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±608.74typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 55.56 | 64.8 | 44.91 | 53.25 – 57.87 |
| 2028 | 62.49 | 78.48 | 44.03 | 57.03 – 67.95 |
| 2030 | 69.42 | 90.06 | 45.59 | 60.69 – 78.15 |
| 2035 | 86.73 | 115.93 | 53.03 | 68.36 – 105.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead53.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.76typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.01 | 24.17 | 17.86 | 20.19 – 21.83 |
| 2028 | 18.76 | 24.23 | 13.28 | 17.02 – 20.49 |
| 2030 | 16.5 | 23.56 | 9.43 | 14.1 – 18.9 |
| 2035 | 10.85 | 20.84 | 0.86 | 7.58 – 14.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.47· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.39typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.81 | 7.95 | -5 | -0.79 – 2.41 |
| 2028 | -2.87 | 9.5 | -5 | -5 – 0.01 |
| 2030 | -5 | 10.97 | -5 | -5 – -1.06 |
| 2035 | -5 | 17.58 | -5 | -5 – 0.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.39typical miss · 1 realized · 87% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.52 | 47.11 | 34.81 | 38.93 – 42.11 |
| 2028 | 43.14 | 54.55 | 33.25 | 39.44 – 46.84 |
| 2030 | 45.76 | 60.5 | 32.99 | 39.99 – 51.53 |
| 2035 | 52.31 | 70 | 34.25 | 40.96 – 63.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.58typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.2m | 49.5m | 45.2m | 45.8m – 48.7m |
| 2028 | 47.9m | 50.2m | 45.8m | 44.4m – 51.5m |
| 2030 | 48.6m | 50.9m | 46.5m | 43.1m – 54.1m |
| 2035 | 50.3m | 52.7m | 48.1m | 39.9m – 60.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead48.7m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±778.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.47 | 15 | -6 | 2.66 – 6.29 |
| 2028 | 8.11 | 15 | -10 | 4.7 – 11.52 |
| 2030 | 11.74 | 15 | -10 | 6.9 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 7.08 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.11· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.58typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.8bn | 73.8bn | 27.9bn | 46.5bn – 55.1bn |
| 2028 | 46.5bn | 86.2bn | 6.7bn | 38.1bn – 54.8bn |
| 2030 | 42.1bn | 93.4bn | 0 | 30.9bn – 53.3bn |
| 2035 | 31.2bn | 103.8bn | 0 | 15.1bn – 47.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.04 | 17.47 | 8.6 | 12.15 – 13.92 |
| 2028 | 14.71 | 22.39 | 7.02 | 12.82 – 16.59 |
| 2030 | 15.52 | 25.45 | 5.6 | 12.76 – 18.29 |
| 2035 | 16.18 | 30.21 | 2.14 | 11.44 – 20.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.34· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.26typical miss · 1 realized · 45% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed76.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 77.9bn | 98.4bn | 57.5bn | 73.5bn – 82.3bn |
| 2028 | 80.5bn | 116bn | 45.1bn | 71.2bn – 89.8bn |
| 2030 | 83.1bn | 128.9bn | 37.4bn | 69.5bn – 96.8bn |
| 2035 | 89.7bn | 154.4bn | 24.9bn | 65.4bn – 113.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead77.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.09 | 12.03 | 10.15 | 10.75 – 11.43 |
| 2028 | 10.01 | 11.63 | 8.38 | 9.27 – 10.75 |
| 2030 | 8.92 | 11.02 | 6.82 | 7.89 – 9.96 |
| 2035 | 6.21 | 9.18 | 3.24 | 4.76 – 7.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.44· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/DZA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 18.03 | 2024 (48.1) |
| 2028 | 18.9 | 2025 (52.1) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 7.5844 + 0.2172·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.763 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 174.2bn | 2025 (11.63) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 278274596749.2119 + -8949214018.2276·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.749 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.82 | 2024 (4.05) |
| 2027 | 25.23 | 2025 (1.42) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 21.6756 + 2.5075·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.569 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.95 | 2025 (52.1) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 0.6739 + 0.1589·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/DZA?indicator= · API docs
