Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Micronesia, Fed. Sts.: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 1984, 1986, 1988, 1993, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2022, 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2031, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Micronesia, Fed. Sts.'s strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.8 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 364.7m | 2023 (5.5) |
Latest observed0(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.86 | 13.66 | -11.94 | -1.77 – 3.49 |
| 2028 | -4.82 | 17.35 | -26.99 | -9.57 – -0.06 |
| 2030 | -10.5 | 18.12 | -30 | -17.18 – -3.82 |
| 2035 | -24.69 | 15.78 | -30 | -30 – -12.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.86typical miss · 1 realized
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.1 | 33.19 | 8.76 | 17.91 – 22.29 |
| 2028 | 16.07 | 38.74 | 0 | 12.06 – 20.08 |
| 2030 | 12.04 | 41.3 | 0 | 6.89 – 17.18 |
| 2035 | 1.95 | 43.33 | 0 | 0 – 8.18 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.82typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed501.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 521.8m | 560.6m | 488.2m | 505.6m – 538m |
| 2028 | 571m | 638.2m | 512.8m | 528.8m – 613.3m |
| 2030 | 620.3m | 707m | 545.1m | 549.9m – 690.7m |
| 2035 | 743.4m | 866.1m | 637.1m | 589.2m – 897.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead552.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.2mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.19 | 9.81 | -6.27 | -0.26 – 2.65 |
| 2028 | 1.53 | 12 | -10 | -1.03 – 4.09 |
| 2030 | 1.87 | 12 | -10 | -1.49 – 5.23 |
| 2035 | 2.71 | 12 | -10 | -2.27 – 7.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.45· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.21typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.6k | 4.9k | 4.3k | 4.4k – 4.7k |
| 2028 | 5k | 5.6k | 4.4k | 4.6k – 5.3k |
| 2030 | 5.4k | 6.1k | 4.7k | 4.8k – 6k |
| 2035 | 6.3k | 7.4k | 5.4k | 5k – 7.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.96 | 10.34 | 3.07 | 6.33 – 7.59 |
| 2028 | 3.29 | 9.13 | 0 | 2.24 – 4.35 |
| 2030 | 0 | 7.54 | 0 | 0 – 1.24 |
| 2035 | 0 | 10.66 | 0 | 0 – 1.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.74typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.51 | 76.95 | 66.08 | 69.3 – 73.73 |
| 2028 | 72.65 | 82.06 | 63.25 | 67.28 – 78.03 |
| 2030 | 73.79 | 85.94 | 61.65 | 65.42 – 82.17 |
| 2035 | 76.65 | 93.82 | 59.47 | 60.75 – 92.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead71.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.63typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.41(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.79 | 5.73 | -2.44 | 0.88 – 2.69 |
| 2028 | -1.85 | 4.98 | -5 | -3.46 – -0.25 |
| 2030 | -5 | 3.82 | -5 | -5 – -2.64 |
| 2035 | -5 | 7.48 | -5 | -5 – -1.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.41typical miss · 1 realized · 44% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.94(1983)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1984 | 44.94 | 47.3 | 42.9 | 43.55 – 46.33 |
| 1986 | 44.94 | 47.3 | 42.9 | 41.62 – 48.27 |
| 1988 | 44.94 | 47.3 | 42.9 | 39.84 – 50.04 |
| 1993 | 44.94 | 47.3 | 42.9 | 35.62 – 54.26 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed113.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 113.5k | 118.9k | 108.6k | 110k – 117.1k |
| 2028 | 114.1k | 119.5k | 109.1k | 105.7k – 122.6k |
| 2030 | 114.7k | 120.1k | 109.7k | 101.7k – 127.7k |
| 2035 | 116.1k | 121.6k | 111k | 92k – 140.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead73.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±37.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 49% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed497.4m(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 563.7m | 680.1m | 447.4m | 536.9m – 590.6m |
| 2024 | 723.6m | 925.2m | 522m | 658m – 789.2m |
| 2026 | 883.5m | 1.1bn | 623.3m | 773m – 994m |
| 2031 | 1.3bn | 1.7bn | 915.2m | 1bn – 1.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead559m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.28(2014)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 4.75 | 5.93 | 3.57 | 4.49 – 5 |
| 2017 | 4.11 | 6.15 | 2.07 | 3.6 – 4.62 |
| 2019 | 3.8 | 6.44 | 1.16 | 3.09 – 4.51 |
| 2024 | 3.55 | 7.28 | 0 | 2.41 – 4.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.74· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed497.4m(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 563.7m | 680.1m | 447.4m | 536.9m – 590.6m |
| 2024 | 723.6m | 925.2m | 522m | 658m – 789.2m |
| 2026 | 883.5m | 1.1bn | 623.3m | 773m – 994m |
| 2031 | 1.3bn | 1.7bn | 915.2m | 1bn – 1.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead559m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/FSM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 354.9m | 2024 (3.1) |
| 2028 | 357.3m | 2025 (3.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 342182174.4265 + 4097602.8264·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.798 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.27 | 2023 (443m) |
| 2027 | 2.77 | 2024 (481.1m) |
| 2028 | 0.33 | 2025 (501.8m) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 59.5125 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.753 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.93 | 2023 (443m) |
| 2027 | 29.5 | 2024 (481.1m) |
| 2028 | 33.06 | 2025 (501.8m) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -53.4056 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/FSM?indicator= · API docs
