Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Micronesia, Fed. Sts.: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 1984, 1986, 1988, 1993, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2022, 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Micronesia, Fed. Sts.'s strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.818 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.2 | 2024 (481.1m) |
Latest observed1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.99 | 11.43 | -13.42 | -3.54 – 1.56 |
| 2029 | -5.18 | 16.34 | -26.7 | -9.82 – -0.54 |
| 2031 | -9.36 | 18.42 | -30 | -15.78 – -2.95 |
| 2036 | -19.83 | 19.46 | -30 | -30 – -8.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.19· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.1 | 33.19 | 8.76 | 17.91 – 22.29 |
| 2028 | 16.07 | 38.74 | 0 | 12.06 – 20.08 |
| 2030 | 12.04 | 41.3 | 0 | 6.89 – 17.18 |
| 2035 | 1.95 | 43.33 | 0 | 0 – 8.18 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.82typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed501.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 540.1m | 576.9m | 508.2m | 523.4m – 556.9m |
| 2029 | 588m | 651.8m | 532.8m | 544.5m – 631.6m |
| 2031 | 636m | 718.3m | 564.7m | 563.8m – 708.2m |
| 2036 | 755.8m | 872.2m | 655m | 599m – 912.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead541.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.23 | 7.42 | -5.99 | -0.98 – 1.44 |
| 2029 | -0.72 | 11.72 | -10 | -2.85 – 1.4 |
| 2031 | -1.68 | 12 | -10 | -4.49 – 1.13 |
| 2036 | -4.07 | 12 | -10 | -8.51 – 0.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.6· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.8k | 6.6k | 5.1k | 5.6k – 6k |
| 2029 | 6.6k | 7.9k | 5.4k | 6.1k – 7.1k |
| 2031 | 7.4k | 9.1k | 5.9k | 6.5k – 8.2k |
| 2036 | 9.3k | 11.8k | 7.2k | 7.4k – 11.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.8k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.64 | 8.48 | 2.36 | 5.11 – 6.17 |
| 2029 | 1.91 | 6.84 | 0 | 1.06 – 2.76 |
| 2031 | 0 | 6.36 | 0 | 0 – 1.06 |
| 2036 | 0 | 8.99 | 0 | 0 – 1.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.24· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.51 | 76.95 | 66.08 | 69.3 – 73.73 |
| 2028 | 72.65 | 82.06 | 63.25 | 67.28 – 78.03 |
| 2030 | 73.79 | 85.94 | 61.65 | 65.42 – 82.17 |
| 2035 | 76.65 | 93.82 | 59.47 | 60.75 – 92.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead71.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.63typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.41(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.41 | 6.42 | 0.18 | 2.69 – 4.13 |
| 2029 | 3.41 | 8.63 | -2.19 | 2.09 – 4.73 |
| 2031 | 3.41 | 10.15 | -3.81 | 1.64 – 5.17 |
| 2036 | 3.41 | 12.94 | -5 | 0.75 – 6.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.41· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.94(1983)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1984 | 44.94 | 47.3 | 42.9 | 43.55 – 46.33 |
| 1986 | 44.94 | 47.3 | 42.9 | 41.62 – 48.27 |
| 1988 | 44.94 | 47.3 | 42.9 | 39.84 – 50.04 |
| 1993 | 44.94 | 47.3 | 42.9 | 35.62 – 54.26 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed113.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 92.9k | 104.3k | 82.3k | 90.1k – 95.8k |
| 2029 | 72.4k | 92.2k | 54k | 67k – 77.7k |
| 2031 | 51.8k | 77.4k | 28.1k | 45.7k – 58k |
| 2036 | 457.25 | 36.5k | 0 | 0 – 3.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead94.2k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed497.4m(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 563.7m | 680.1m | 447.4m | 536.9m – 590.6m |
| 2024 | 723.6m | 925.2m | 522m | 658m – 789.2m |
| 2026 | 883.5m | 1.1bn | 623.3m | 773m – 994m |
| 2031 | 1.3bn | 1.7bn | 915.2m | 1bn – 1.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead559m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.28(2014)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 4.75 | 5.93 | 3.57 | 4.49 – 5 |
| 2017 | 4.11 | 6.15 | 2.07 | 3.6 – 4.62 |
| 2019 | 3.8 | 6.44 | 1.16 | 3.09 – 4.51 |
| 2024 | 3.55 | 7.28 | 0 | 2.41 – 4.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.74· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed497.4m(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 563.7m | 680.1m | 447.4m | 536.9m – 590.6m |
| 2024 | 723.6m | 925.2m | 522m | 658m – 789.2m |
| 2026 | 883.5m | 1.1bn | 623.3m | 773m – 994m |
| 2031 | 1.3bn | 1.7bn | 915.2m | 1bn – 1.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead559m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/FSM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 0.8 | 2025 (501.8m) |
| 2029 | -1.43 | 2026 (521m) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 59.0812 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.791 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 454.4m | 2026 (7.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 508515787.7771 + -7215500.1463·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.72 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 24.73 | 2024 (481.1m) |
| 2028 | 27.86 | 2025 (501.8m) |
| 2029 | 30.77 | 2026 (521m) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -48.1587 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/FSM?indicator= · API docs
