Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Greenland: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
No macro series leads another strongly enough in Greenland (over enough overlapping history) to nowcast it.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/GRL?indicator= · API docs
Latest observed40.8(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 40.38 | 48.34 | 33.48 | 38.59 – 42.16 |
| 2026 | 39.53 | 53.32 | 27.58 | 35.66 – 43.4 |
| 2028 | 38.68 | 56.48 | 23.26 | 33.05 – 44.32 |
| 2033 | 36.57 | 61.74 | 14.75 | 27.12 – 46.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.58· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3.4bn | 3.6bn | 3.1bn | 3.3bn – 3.5bn |
| 2026 | 3.5bn | 4bn | 3.1bn | 3.2bn – 3.8bn |
| 2028 | 3.6bn | 4.2bn | 3.1bn | 3.2bn – 4.1bn |
| 2033 | 4bn | 4.8bn | 3.2bn | 3.1bn – 4.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.87(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.66 | 4.28 | -2.48 | 0.04 – 1.28 |
| 2026 | 0.18 | 6.46 | -5.25 | -0.91 – 1.28 |
| 2028 | -0.29 | 7.81 | -7.31 | -1.72 – 1.14 |
| 2033 | -1.47 | 9.98 | -10 | -3.62 – 0.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.72· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.5k(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 59.3k | 64k | 55.2k | 57.4k – 61.1k |
| 2026 | 61.4k | 69.5k | 54.3k | 56.8k – 65.9k |
| 2028 | 63.4k | 73.9k | 54.3k | 56.2k – 70.6k |
| 2033 | 68.6k | 83.5k | 55.8k | 54.4k – 82.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead59.7k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.09(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 52.23 | 58.6 | 45.87 | 50.42 – 54.04 |
| 2026 | 54.52 | 65.54 | 43.49 | 50.21 – 58.82 |
| 2028 | 56.8 | 71.03 | 42.57 | 50.08 – 63.52 |
| 2033 | 62.51 | 82.63 | 42.38 | 49.43 – 75.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead51.73· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.69(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 35.6 | 43.77 | 28.52 | 33.86 – 37.34 |
| 2026 | 38.03 | 52.18 | 25.77 | 34.19 – 41.88 |
| 2028 | 40.46 | 58.73 | 24.63 | 34.62 – 46.31 |
| 2033 | 46.54 | 70 | 24.16 | 35.4 – 57.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead33.99· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed56.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.8k | 59.5k | 54.3k | 55k – 58.6k |
| 2028 | 56.8k | 59.5k | 54.3k | 52.6k – 61k |
| 2030 | 56.8k | 59.5k | 54.3k | 50.4k – 63.2k |
| 2035 | 56.8k | 59.5k | 54.3k | 45k – 68.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead56.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±55.44typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/GRL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
