Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Cambodia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Cambodia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.841 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.51 | 2023 (26.3) |
Latest observed-8.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.52 | 25.72 | -30 | -8.33 – 3.28 |
| 2028 | -0.17 | 30 | -30 | -10.2 – 9.86 |
| 2030 | 2.19 | 30 | -30 | -10.88 – 15.25 |
| 2035 | 8.07 | 30 | -30 | -11.45 – 27.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-9.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.18typical miss · 1 realized · 71% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70.94 | 82.32 | 61.08 | 68.18 – 73.7 |
| 2028 | 75.52 | 95.24 | 58.44 | 69.08 – 81.97 |
| 2030 | 80.11 | 105.56 | 58.05 | 70.06 – 90.15 |
| 2035 | 91.57 | 127.56 | 60.38 | 71.78 – 111.36 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead69.67· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.4typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 53.8bn | 58.1bn | 50.1bn | 52.2bn – 55.5bn |
| 2028 | 60.3bn | 67.7bn | 53.9bn | 55.8bn – 64.7bn |
| 2030 | 66.7bn | 76.3bn | 58.4bn | 59.2bn – 74.3bn |
| 2035 | 82.9bn | 96.4bn | 71.2bn | 65.7bn – 100.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead57bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±351.6mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.93 | 11.4 | 1.19 | 4.92 – 6.93 |
| 2028 | 7.29 | 12 | -0.92 | 5.36 – 9.22 |
| 2030 | 8.66 | 12 | -1.94 | 5.93 – 11.39 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -3 | 7.2 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.7· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.93typical miss · 1 realized · 98% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3k | 3.2k | 2.8k | 2.9k – 3.1k |
| 2028 | 3.3k | 3.7k | 2.9k | 3.1k – 3.5k |
| 2030 | 3.6k | 4.2k | 3.1k | 3.2k – 4k |
| 2035 | 4.4k | 5.1k | 3.7k | 3.5k – 5.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.13typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.06 | 29.03 | 22.63 | 25.18 – 26.93 |
| 2028 | 27.17 | 32.31 | 21.24 | 25.08 – 29.27 |
| 2030 | 28.29 | 34.93 | 20.63 | 25.01 – 31.58 |
| 2035 | 31.08 | 40.47 | 20.25 | 24.63 – 37.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.96typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed67.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.7 | 79.88 | 57.52 | 65.89 – 71.51 |
| 2028 | 71.21 | 90.58 | 51.84 | 64.83 – 77.6 |
| 2030 | 73.73 | 98.73 | 48.72 | 64 – 83.45 |
| 2035 | 80.01 | 115.38 | 44.64 | 61.79 – 98.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead67.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.12typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.15 | 7.24 | -1.22 | 2.2 – 4.11 |
| 2028 | 5.32 | 12.39 | -2.27 | 3.49 – 7.14 |
| 2030 | 7.48 | 16.61 | -2.32 | 4.85 – 10.1 |
| 2035 | 12.88 | 25.8 | -0.97 | 7.95 – 17.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.45typical miss · 1 realized · 44% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.48 | 34.25 | 27.22 | 29.46 – 31.51 |
| 2028 | 29.58 | 36.1 | 23.93 | 27.23 – 31.93 |
| 2030 | 28.68 | 37.09 | 21.38 | 25.18 – 32.17 |
| 2035 | 26.42 | 38.32 | 16.1 | 20.49 – 32.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.96· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.07typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.8m | 18.6m | 17m | 17.2m – 18.3m |
| 2028 | 18m | 18.9m | 17.2m | 16.7m – 19.4m |
| 2030 | 18.2m | 19.1m | 17.4m | 16.2m – 20.3m |
| 2035 | 18.8m | 19.7m | 18m | 14.9m – 22.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.3m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±263.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.49 | 15 | -6.42 | 2.6 – 6.37 |
| 2028 | 6.31 | 15 | -10 | 2.86 – 9.76 |
| 2030 | 8.14 | 15 | -10 | 3.43 – 12.86 |
| 2035 | 12.71 | 15 | -10 | 4.93 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.77· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.38typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.9bn | 24.8bn | 17.1bn | 20bn – 21.9bn |
| 2028 | 23.4bn | 30.1bn | 16.7bn | 21.3bn – 25.6bn |
| 2030 | 25.9bn | 34.6bn | 17.2bn | 22.5bn – 29.3bn |
| 2035 | 32.1bn | 44.3bn | 19.8bn | 25.1bn – 39.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.8 | 10.93 | 4.68 | 7.2 – 8.41 |
| 2028 | 7.67 | 13.09 | 2.25 | 6.47 – 8.87 |
| 2030 | 7.61 | 14.6 | 0.61 | 5.93 – 9.29 |
| 2035 | 7.56 | 17.45 | 0 | 4.83 – 10.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.03· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.5bn | 34.4bn | 24.6bn | 28.3bn – 30.7bn |
| 2028 | 34.3bn | 42.7bn | 25.8bn | 31.3bn – 37.2bn |
| 2030 | 39bn | 50bn | 28.1bn | 34.2bn – 43.8bn |
| 2035 | 51bn | 66.4bn | 35.5bn | 40.4bn – 61.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.26 | 0.5 | 0.03 | 0.21 – 0.32 |
| 2028 | 0.27 | 0.67 | 0 | 0.16 – 0.38 |
| 2030 | 0.27 | 0.79 | 0 | 0.11 – 0.43 |
| 2035 | 0.27 | 1.02 | 0 | 0 – 0.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.26· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/KHM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 0.5 | 2024 (26.1) |
| 2028 | 0.47 | 2025 (25.5) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ -0.7522 + 0.0481·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.797 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.4bn | 2025 (0.26) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 42554051060.4767 + -38553498332.974·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.615 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.67 | 2023 (2.13) |
| 2027 | 7.81 | 2024 (0.81) |
| 2028 | 7.65 | 2025 (2.35) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 7.9009 + -0.1065·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.601 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.72 | 2025 (51.3bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 31.9787 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.535 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.88 | 2023 (26.3) |
| 2027 | -7 | 2024 (26.1) |
| 2028 | -7.34 | 2025 (25.5) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -22.1411 + 0.5802·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/KHM?indicator= · API docs
