Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Lebanon: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2033, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Lebanon's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.729 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 151.48 | 2025 (4) |
Latest observed-22.5(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -22.71 | -9.5 | -30 | -25.77 – -19.65 |
| 2028 | -23.14 | -0.25 | -30 | -28.92 – -17.36 |
| 2030 | -23.57 | 5.98 | -30 | -30 – -15.65 |
| 2035 | -24.63 | 17.15 | -30 | -30 – -12.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-23.93· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.32(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24.64 | 37.46 | 13.52 | 22.41 – 26.86 |
| 2027 | 27.27 | 49.49 | 8.02 | 22.79 – 31.75 |
| 2029 | 29.91 | 58.59 | 5.05 | 23.42 – 36.4 |
| 2034 | 36.5 | 77.06 | 1.35 | 24.87 – 48.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.73· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.88typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.7bn | 54.1bn | 19.8bn | 33bn – 38.5bn |
| 2028 | 38.4bn | 70.1bn | 10.8bn | 32.7bn – 44bn |
| 2030 | 41bn | 82bn | 5.5bn | 32.8bn – 49.1bn |
| 2035 | 47.6bn | 105.6bn | 0 | 33.1bn – 62.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-7.08(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.31 | 12 | -7.35 | 3.58 – 9.04 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 6.87 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 5.17 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 1.77 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.27· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.7k | 10k | 3.8k | 6.2k – 7.2k |
| 2028 | 7.3k | 13.1k | 2.3k | 6.3k – 8.3k |
| 2030 | 7.9k | 15.3k | 1.5k | 6.4k – 9.4k |
| 2035 | 9.4k | 19.9k | 319.1 | 6.7k – 12.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.7k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed139.4(2025)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 142.52 | 280.39 | 0 | 119.03 – 166.01 |
| 2028 | 148.77 | 300 | 0 | 104.89 – 192.65 |
| 2030 | 155.02 | 300 | 0 | 95.18 – 214.85 |
| 2035 | 170.63 | 300 | 0 | 76.25 – 265.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead147.62· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.92(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 63.08 | 91.22 | 34.94 | 57.76 – 68.4 |
| 2027 | 71.41 | 120.15 | 22.67 | 60.52 – 82.3 |
| 2029 | 79.74 | 142.66 | 16.82 | 63.73 – 95.75 |
| 2034 | 100.56 | 150 | 11.58 | 70.85 – 130.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead63.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±19.13typical miss · 1 realized · 32% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.53 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.19· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.44(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0 | 6.45 | 0 | 0 – 0.94 |
| 2027 | 0 | 11.17 | 0 | 0 – 1.64 |
| 2029 | 0 | 14.42 | 0 | 0 – 2.14 |
| 2034 | 0 | 20.39 | 0 | 0 – 3.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.44typical miss · 1 realized · 100% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.8m | 6.1m | 5.6m | 5.7m – 6m |
| 2028 | 5.9m | 6.2m | 5.6m | 5.5m – 6.3m |
| 2030 | 5.9m | 6.3m | 5.6m | 5.3m – 6.6m |
| 2035 | 6.1m | 6.6m | 5.5m | 4.8m – 7.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.08(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.15 | 15 | -10 | -2 – 2.3 |
| 2026 | 4.7 | 15 | -10 | 0.78 – 8.62 |
| 2028 | 9.25 | 15 | -10 | 3.74 – 14.76 |
| 2033 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 5.86 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.99· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.2bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.8bn | 14.1bn | 0 | 4.5bn – 7.2bn |
| 2027 | 0 | 14.3bn | 0 | 0 – 2.2bn |
| 2029 | 0 | 18.5bn | 0 | 0 – 2.8bn |
| 2034 | 0 | 26.1bn | 0 | 0 – 4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.6(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 15.07 | 24.74 | 5.41 | 13.35 – 16.8 |
| 2026 | 16.82 | 33.57 | 0.08 | 13.45 – 20.2 |
| 2028 | 17.68 | 36 | 0 | 12.96 – 22.41 |
| 2033 | 18.37 | 36 | 0 | 10.75 – 25.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.32· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.3bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31.5bn | 40.7bn | 22.3bn | 29.6bn – 33.4bn |
| 2027 | 26.9bn | 42.8bn | 11bn | 23.2bn – 30.6bn |
| 2029 | 22.3bn | 42.8bn | 1.8bn | 17.4bn – 27.2bn |
| 2034 | 10.8bn | 39.8bn | 0 | 4.7bn – 17bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.99(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10.99 | 13.3 | 8.67 | 10.46 – 11.52 |
| 2026 | 10.99 | 15 | 6.97 | 9.85 – 12.13 |
| 2028 | 10.99 | 16.17 | 5.81 | 9.32 – 12.66 |
| 2033 | 10.99 | 18.32 | 3.66 | 8.11 – 13.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.98· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LBN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 170.7724 + -4.8233·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.686 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 8.81 | 2021 (23.1bn) |
| 2025 | 8.68 | 2022 (21bn) |
| 2026 | 8.62 | 2023 (20.1bn) |
| 2027 | 8.99 | 2024 (26bn) |
| 2028 | 9.52 | 2025 (34.5bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 7.3665 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.565 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -22.62 | 2023 (-0.76) |
| 2027 | -24.97 | 2024 (-7.08) |
| 2028 | -20.86 | 2025 (4) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -22.3421 + 0.3711·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LBN?indicator= · API docs
