Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Lebanon: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
| Year |
|---|
| Baseline |
|---|
| Optimistic |
|---|
| Pessimistic |
|---|
| Conf. band |
|---|
| 2026 | -22.71 | -9.5 | -30 | -25.77 – -19.65 |
| 2028 | -23.14 | -0.25 | -30 | -28.92 – -17.36 |
| 2030 | -23.57 | 5.98 | -30 | -30 – -15.65 |
| 2035 | -24.63 | 17.15 | -30 | -30 – -12.16 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 32.19 | 43.36 | 22.51 | 30.08 – 34.3 |
| 2026 | 35.47 | 54.82 | 18.71 | 31.01 – 39.94 |
| 2028 | 38.75 | 63.72 | 17.11 | 32.08 – 45.42 |
| 2033 | 46.95 | 82.27 | 16.35 | 34.4 – 59.51 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36bn | 54.4bn | 20.1bn | 33.3bn – 38.8bn |
| 2028 | 39.2bn | 71.1bn | 11.6bn | 33.5bn – 44.9bn |
| 2030 | 42.4bn | 83.6bn | 6.7bn | 34.1bn – 50.7bn |
| 2035 | 50.4bn | 108.7bn | 0 | 35.4bn – 65.4bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.29 | 12 | -7.73 | 3.5 – 9.09 |
| 2028 | 11.97 | 12 | -10 | 6.72 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 5.01 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 1.55 – 12 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.8k | 10.1k | 3.9k | 6.3k – 7.3k |
| 2028 | 7.6k | 13.3k | 2.6k | 6.5k – 8.6k |
| 2030 | 8.3k | 15.8k | 1.9k | 6.8k – 9.9k |
| 2035 | 10.3k | 20.8k | 1.1k | 7.4k – 13.2k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 142.52 | 280.39 | 0 | 119.03 – 166.01 |
| 2028 | 148.77 | 300 | 0 | 104.89 – 192.65 |
| 2030 | 155.02 | 300 | 0 | 95.18 – 214.85 |
| 2035 | 170.63 | 300 | 0 | 76.25 – 265.01 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 78.04 | 103.04 | 53.05 | 72.97 – 83.12 |
| 2026 | 86.82 | 130.12 | 43.52 | 76.03 – 97.61 |
| 2028 | 95.6 | 150 | 39.7 | 79.39 – 111.8 |
| 2033 | 117.54 | 150 | 38.49 | 86.63 – 148.45 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.53 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 50 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0 | 6.29 | 0 | 0 – 0.92 |
| 2026 | 0 | 10.9 | 0 | 0 – 1.61 |
| 2028 | 0 | 14.07 | 0 | 0 – 2.09 |
| 2033 | 0 | 19.9 | 0 | 0 – 3 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3m | 5.6m | 5m | 5.1m – 5.5m |
| 2028 | 4.8m | 5.3m | 4.3m | 4.4m – 5.2m |
| 2030 | 4.3m | 4.9m | 3.7m | 3.8m – 4.8m |
| 2035 | 3.1m | 4m | 2.2m | 2.4m – 3.7m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.15 | 15 | -10 | -2 – 2.3 |
| 2026 | 4.7 | 15 | -10 | 0.78 – 8.62 |
| 2028 | 9.25 | 15 | -10 | 3.74 – 14.76 |
| 2033 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 5.86 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10.99 | 13.3 | 8.67 | 10.46 – 11.52 |
| 2026 | 10.99 | 15 | 6.97 | 9.85 – 12.13 |
| 2028 | 10.99 | 16.17 | 5.81 | 9.32 – 12.66 |
| 2033 | 10.99 | 18.32 | 3.66 | 8.11 – 13.87 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-06-22 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LBN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
