Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Libya: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Libya's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.64 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.13 | 2023 (44bn) |
Latest observed0.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.23 | 26.38 | -25.91 | -5.12 – 5.59 |
| 2028 | -1.5 | 30 | -30 | -10.81 – 7.82 |
| 2030 | -3.23 | 30 | -30 | -15.42 – 8.96 |
| 2035 | -7.55 | 30 | -30 | -25.63 – 10.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.67typical miss · 1 realized · 74% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 78.47 | 138.48 | 26.46 | 68.64 – 88.29 |
| 2028 | 91.97 | 150 | 1.89 | 72.71 – 111.23 |
| 2030 | 105.48 | 150 | 0 | 77.87 – 133.08 |
| 2035 | 139.24 | 150 | 0 | 89.85 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead75.26· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.45typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48bn | 68.4bn | 30.3bn | 44.8bn – 51.2bn |
| 2028 | 47.4bn | 82.7bn | 16.7bn | 40.9bn – 53.9bn |
| 2030 | 46.8bn | 92.4bn | 7.2bn | 37.6bn – 55.9bn |
| 2035 | 45.2bn | 109.7bn | 0 | 30.3bn – 60.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead57.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9bntypical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 0.91 – 12 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -7.46 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.7typical miss · 1 realized · 264% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4k | 9.3k | 3.8k | 5.9k – 6.8k |
| 2028 | 6.1k | 11.1k | 1.7k | 5.2k – 7k |
| 2030 | 5.8k | 12.3k | 102.52 | 4.5k – 7k |
| 2035 | 5.1k | 14.3k | 0 | 3.2k – 7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.7k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed125.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 179.03 | 197.36 | 157.87 | 173.34 – 184.72 |
| 2028 | 229.49 | 261.25 | 192.85 | 212.51 – 246.47 |
| 2030 | 279.95 | 300 | 232.64 | 248.16 – 300 |
| 2035 | 300 | 300 | 233.1 | 237.77 – 300 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.67 | 105.42 | 39.92 | 66.49 – 78.84 |
| 2028 | 86.12 | 142.84 | 29.39 | 73.3 – 98.93 |
| 2030 | 99.57 | 150 | 26.33 | 80.39 – 118.74 |
| 2035 | 133.19 | 150 | 29.62 | 96.03 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead69.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.71typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.79 | 4.57 | -1.19 | 1.15 – 2.44 |
| 2028 | 1.39 | 6.21 | -3.77 | 0.26 – 2.53 |
| 2030 | 0.99 | 7.22 | -5 | -0.46 – 2.45 |
| 2035 | -0 | 8.8 | -5 | -2.11 – 2.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±12.31typical miss · 1 realized · 87% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.75 | 21.88 | 8.56 | 13.49 – 16 |
| 2028 | 15.81 | 28.17 | 5.1 | 13.29 – 18.34 |
| 2030 | 16.88 | 32.83 | 3.05 | 13.25 – 20.5 |
| 2035 | 19.54 | 42.09 | 0 | 13.19 – 25.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.57typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.4m | 7.8m | 7.1m | 7.2m – 7.7m |
| 2028 | 7.5m | 7.9m | 7.2m | 7m – 8.1m |
| 2030 | 7.6m | 8m | 7.3m | 6.7m – 8.5m |
| 2035 | 7.8m | 8.2m | 7.5m | 6.2m – 9.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.6m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±98.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 6.77 – 15 |
| 2028 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 0.44 – 15 |
| 2030 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -4.06 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.47· skill-weighted across models
Track record±12.74typical miss · 1 realized · 110% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84.7bn | 91.9bn | 77.5bn | 82.1bn – 87.4bn |
| 2028 | 86.6bn | 99.1bn | 74.2bn | 80.2bn – 93bn |
| 2030 | 88.5bn | 104.6bn | 72.5bn | 78.5bn – 98.6bn |
| 2035 | 93.3bn | 116bn | 70.5bn | 73.9bn – 112.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead84.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.57(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 35.83 | 36 | 1.08 | 29.94 – 36 |
| 2026 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 25.06 – 36 |
| 2028 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 21.23 – 36 |
| 2033 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 13.42 – 36 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.05· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed104.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 108bn | 117.7bn | 98.3bn | 104.7bn – 111.3bn |
| 2028 | 116.6bn | 133.3bn | 99.9bn | 108bn – 125.2bn |
| 2030 | 125.2bn | 146.8bn | 103.6bn | 111bn – 139.4bn |
| 2035 | 146.8bn | 177.3bn | 116.2bn | 116.3bn – 177.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead107.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.56 | 19.47 | 17.65 | 17.98 – 19.13 |
| 2028 | 18.15 | 19.4 | 16.91 | 16.81 – 19.49 |
| 2030 | 17.75 | 19.35 | 16.14 | 15.73 – 19.76 |
| 2035 | 16.74 | 19.01 | 14.47 | 13.27 – 20.21 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.72· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LBY · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 19.17 | 2024 (48.5bn) |
| 2028 | 19.17 | 2025 (48.1bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 18.7174 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.507 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.4bn | 2025 (1.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 40730769205.8121 + 579042779.7446·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LBY?indicator= · API docs
