Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Sri Lanka: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Sri Lanka's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.875 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 77.3bn | 2023 (4.53) |
Latest observed1.2(2024)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.76 | 5.23 | -1.71 | 1.02 – 2.49 |
| 2027 | 2.87 | 8.88 | -3.14 | 1.5 – 4.23 |
| 2029 | 3.98 | 11.74 | -3.78 | 2.08 – 5.88 |
| 2034 | 6.76 | 17.73 | -4.21 | 3.44 – 10.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.53· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.88 | 25.31 | 13.3 | 17.66 – 20.1 |
| 2028 | 18.7 | 29.84 | 9.04 | 16.21 – 21.18 |
| 2030 | 18.51 | 32.9 | 6.05 | 14.98 – 22.05 |
| 2035 | 18.06 | 38.4 | 0.43 | 12.26 – 23.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.88· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.85typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed108.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 115.6bn | 136.1bn | 97.7bn | 111.3bn – 119.9bn |
| 2028 | 131.2bn | 166.9bn | 100.3bn | 120.7bn – 141.8bn |
| 2030 | 146.9bn | 192.9bn | 107bn | 129.7bn – 164.1bn |
| 2035 | 186.1bn | 251.2bn | 129.7bn | 147.5bn – 224.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead112.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.3bntypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.44 | 12 | -5.95 | 4.75 – 10.14 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 6.96 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 5.28 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 1.93 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.78typical miss · 1 realized · 76% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3k | 6.3k | 4.5k | 5.1k – 5.5k |
| 2028 | 6k | 7.7k | 4.6k | 5.5k – 6.5k |
| 2030 | 6.8k | 8.9k | 4.9k | 6k – 7.6k |
| 2035 | 8.6k | 11.6k | 5.9k | 6.8k – 10.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±419.86typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed100.8(2024)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 105.39 | 120.32 | 88.16 | 101.41 – 109.38 |
| 2027 | 114.58 | 140.44 | 84.74 | 105.1 – 124.06 |
| 2029 | 123.77 | 157.15 | 85.24 | 108.73 – 138.8 |
| 2034 | 146.73 | 193.95 | 92.25 | 115.99 – 177.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead103.41· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.12 | 27.13 | 17.11 | 21 – 23.24 |
| 2028 | 20.67 | 29.35 | 12 | 18.35 – 22.99 |
| 2030 | 19.23 | 30.43 | 8.03 | 15.98 – 22.48 |
| 2035 | 15.62 | 31.46 | 0 | 10.69 – 20.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.08typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-4.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.42 | 47 | -5 | -5 – 7.05 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 14.98 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 20.89 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 31.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-4.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.24typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.77 | 24.97 | 15.27 | 18.71 – 20.83 |
| 2028 | 17.32 | 26.31 | 9.52 | 15.2 – 19.43 |
| 2030 | 14.86 | 26.47 | 4.8 | 12.02 – 17.71 |
| 2035 | 8.73 | 25.15 | 0 | 4.99 – 12.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.01typical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.8m | 22.8m | 20.8m | 21.1m – 22.4m |
| 2028 | 21.6m | 22.6m | 20.6m | 20m – 23.2m |
| 2030 | 21.4m | 22.4m | 20.5m | 19m – 23.9m |
| 2035 | 21m | 22m | 20.1m | 16.6m – 25.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±160.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.48 | 15 | -4.14 | 5.42 – 9.53 |
| 2028 | 12.67 | 15 | -7.45 | 8.71 – 15 |
| 2030 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 9.47 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 6.48 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.85typical miss · 1 realized · 55% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.5bn | 9.7bn | 3.3bn | 6bn – 7.1bn |
| 2027 | 7.7bn | 13.2bn | 2.1bn | 6.4bn – 8.9bn |
| 2029 | 8.8bn | 15.9bn | 1.6bn | 7bn – 10.6bn |
| 2034 | 11.5bn | 21.7bn | 1.4bn | 8.1bn – 14.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.86(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.82 | 4.5 | 1.14 | 2.52 – 3.12 |
| 2027 | 2.76 | 5.67 | 0 | 2.18 – 3.34 |
| 2029 | 2.73 | 6.49 | 0 | 1.94 – 3.53 |
| 2034 | 2.71 | 8.03 | 0 | 1.47 – 3.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.8· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.5bn | 10bn | 3bn | 5.9bn – 7.2bn |
| 2027 | 7.5bn | 13.5bn | 1.4bn | 6.2bn – 8.7bn |
| 2029 | 8.4bn | 16.2bn | 598m | 6.5bn – 10.3bn |
| 2034 | 10.7bn | 21.7bn | 0 | 7.3bn – 14.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.75 | 4.05 | 3.44 | 3.63 – 3.86 |
| 2028 | 3.23 | 3.76 | 2.7 | 2.99 – 3.47 |
| 2030 | 2.72 | 3.4 | 2.04 | 2.39 – 3.04 |
| 2035 | 1.43 | 2.39 | 0.46 | 1.05 – 1.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.76· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LKA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 79.7bn | 2024 (4.24) |
| 2028 | 81.6bn | 2025 (4.01) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 114312022394.2603 + -8167295790.0835·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.81 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.87 | 2025 (108.8bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 11.3288 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.742 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 78.94 | 2024 (4.99) |
| 2026 | 79.04 | 2025 (4.95) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 91.5443 + -2.5241·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.514 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -1.1 | 2024 (100.8) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -11.237 + 0.1006·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LKA?indicator= · API docs
