Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Lesotho: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Lesotho's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.769 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.31 | 2025 (1.98) |
Latest observed-2.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.07 | 11.15 | -11.29 | -2.38 – 2.23 |
| 2028 | 2.19 | 21.62 | -17.25 | -1.89 – 6.26 |
| 2030 | 4.44 | 29.54 | -20.65 | -1.03 – 9.92 |
| 2035 | 10.09 | 30 | -25.4 | 1.23 – 18.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.59· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.43typical miss · 1 realized · 97% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.64 | 56.69 | 43.52 | 47.83 – 51.44 |
| 2028 | 49.85 | 62.07 | 39.26 | 45.71 – 53.99 |
| 2030 | 50.06 | 65.84 | 36.39 | 43.8 – 56.32 |
| 2035 | 50.59 | 72.91 | 31.25 | 39.31 – 61.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead48.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.93typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.6bn | 3.1bn | 2.2bn | 2.5bn – 2.7bn |
| 2028 | 2.7bn | 3.6bn | 2bn | 2.5bn – 3bn |
| 2030 | 2.8bn | 4bn | 1.8bn | 2.5bn – 3.2bn |
| 2035 | 3.1bn | 4.8bn | 1.7bn | 2.4bn – 3.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±484.9mtypical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.65 | 12 | -5.95 | 0.95 – 4.34 |
| 2028 | 4.11 | 12 | -10 | 1.05 – 7.17 |
| 2030 | 5.56 | 12 | -10 | 1.42 – 9.71 |
| 2035 | 9.21 | 12 | -10 | 2.51 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.55typical miss · 1 realized · 141% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1k | 1.3k | 898.8 | 1.1k – 1.1k |
| 2028 | 1.1k | 1.5k | 776.74 | 1k – 1.2k |
| 2030 | 1.1k | 1.7k | 699.97 | 991.5 – 1.3k |
| 2035 | 1.2k | 1.9k | 574.32 | 923.67 – 1.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±200.85typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.84 | 61.47 | 38.58 | 48.4 – 53.29 |
| 2028 | 53.73 | 72.13 | 32.5 | 48.32 – 59.14 |
| 2030 | 56.62 | 80.37 | 29.2 | 48.43 – 64.8 |
| 2035 | 63.83 | 97.43 | 25.07 | 48.45 – 79.21 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.73· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.34typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed104.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 105.88 | 111.06 | 100.69 | 102.59 – 109.16 |
| 2028 | 108.73 | 117.3 | 100.16 | 100.68 – 116.77 |
| 2030 | 111.58 | 122.65 | 100.51 | 98.91 – 124.25 |
| 2035 | 118.71 | 134.36 | 103.06 | 94.08 – 143.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead105.34· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.01typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.59 | 6.88 | 0.06 | 2.8 – 4.38 |
| 2028 | 1.02 | 6.72 | -5 | -0.29 – 2.33 |
| 2030 | -1.55 | 5.81 | -5 | -3.31 – 0.2 |
| 2035 | -5 | 5.41 | -5 | -5 – -1.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.01typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.68 | 33.89 | 29.77 | 30.7 – 32.66 |
| 2028 | 33.76 | 37.58 | 30.45 | 31.26 – 36.26 |
| 2030 | 35.84 | 40.78 | 31.57 | 31.77 – 39.91 |
| 2035 | 41.05 | 48.02 | 35 | 32.53 – 49.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.34typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4m | 2.5m | 2.3m | 2.3m – 2.4m |
| 2028 | 2.4m | 2.5m | 2.3m | 2.2m – 2.6m |
| 2030 | 2.4m | 2.5m | 2.3m | 2.1m – 2.7m |
| 2035 | 2.5m | 2.6m | 2.4m | 2m – 3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.4m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±33.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.72 | 12.74 | -6.55 | 0.31 – 3.12 |
| 2028 | 3.87 | 15 | -10 | 1.3 – 6.44 |
| 2030 | 6.03 | 15 | -10 | 2.46 – 9.59 |
| 2035 | 11.42 | 15 | -10 | 5.23 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.56typical miss · 1 realized · 76% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 930m | 1bn – 1.1bn |
| 2027 | 1.2bn | 1.4bn | 955.6m | 1.1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2029 | 1.3bn | 1.6bn | 1bn | 1.1bn – 1.4bn |
| 2034 | 1.6bn | 2bn | 1.2bn | 1.2bn – 1.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.53(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.18 | 6.83 | 3.54 | 4.85 – 5.52 |
| 2027 | 4.77 | 7.63 | 1.92 | 4.11 – 5.44 |
| 2029 | 4.57 | 8.25 | 0.88 | 3.64 – 5.5 |
| 2034 | 4.41 | 9.62 | 0 | 2.9 – 5.91 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.65· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 930m | 1bn – 1.1bn |
| 2027 | 1.2bn | 1.4bn | 955.6m | 1.1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2029 | 1.3bn | 1.6bn | 1bn | 1.1bn – 1.4bn |
| 2034 | 1.6bn | 2bn | 1.2bn | 1.2bn – 1.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.85 | 17.02 | 14.68 | 15.36 – 16.34 |
| 2028 | 14.92 | 16.95 | 12.9 | 13.82 – 16.03 |
| 2030 | 13.99 | 16.61 | 11.38 | 12.41 – 15.58 |
| 2035 | 11.67 | 15.37 | 7.98 | 9.24 – 14.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.06· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LSO · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 16.6071 + -0.1502·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.631 over 38 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.93 | 2023 (-1) |
| 2027 | 50.61 | 2024 (2.7) |
| 2028 | 53.05 | 2025 (-1.2) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 52.302 + -0.6261·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.562 over 50 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5bn | 2024 (6.11) |
| 2027 | 1.6bn | 2025 (4.27) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1889549339.8086 + -64545170.5811·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.543 over 52 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.66 | 2025 (2.6bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 14.5799 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LSO?indicator= · API docs
