Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Lesotho: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Lesotho's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.769 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.31 | 2025 (1.98) |
Latest observed-3.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.46 | 9.17 | -14.09 | -4.87 – -0.05 |
| 2029 | -0.58 | 19.57 | -20.72 | -4.73 – 3.58 |
| 2031 | 1.31 | 27.32 | -24.7 | -4.1 – 6.72 |
| 2036 | 6.02 | 30 | -30 | -2.45 – 14.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.01· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 49.64 | 56.69 | 43.52 | 47.83 – 51.44 |
| 2028 | 49.85 | 62.07 | 39.26 | 45.71 – 53.99 |
| 2030 | 50.06 | 65.84 | 36.39 | 43.8 – 56.32 |
| 2035 | 50.59 | 72.91 | 31.25 | 39.31 – 61.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead48.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.93typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.1bn | 3.7bn | 2.6bn | 3bn – 3.2bn |
| 2029 | 3.5bn | 4.5bn | 2.7bn | 3.2bn – 3.8bn |
| 2031 | 3.9bn | 5.2bn | 2.8bn | 3.4bn – 4.4bn |
| 2036 | 4.9bn | 6.7bn | 3.3bn | 3.9bn – 5.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.14 | 4.46 | -4.13 | -0.92 – 0.64 |
| 2029 | -2.77 | 5.19 | -9.68 | -4.24 – -1.31 |
| 2031 | -5.41 | 4.88 | -10 | -7.55 – -3.26 |
| 2036 | -10 | 4.54 | -10 | -10 – -5.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.76· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.3k | 1.5k | 1.1k | 1.2k – 1.3k |
| 2029 | 1.4k | 1.9k | 1.1k | 1.3k – 1.6k |
| 2031 | 1.6k | 2.1k | 1.1k | 1.4k – 1.8k |
| 2036 | 1.9k | 2.7k | 1.2k | 1.5k – 2.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 49.47 | 60.01 | 37.3 | 47.05 – 51.88 |
| 2029 | 50.4 | 68.67 | 29.32 | 45.17 – 55.63 |
| 2031 | 51.33 | 74.92 | 24.12 | 43.6 – 59.07 |
| 2036 | 53.66 | 87.02 | 15.17 | 39.94 – 67.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead49.32· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed104.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 105.88 | 111.06 | 100.69 | 102.59 – 109.16 |
| 2028 | 108.73 | 117.3 | 100.16 | 100.68 – 116.77 |
| 2030 | 111.58 | 122.65 | 100.51 | 98.91 – 124.25 |
| 2035 | 118.71 | 134.36 | 103.06 | 94.08 – 143.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead105.34· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.01typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.35 | 7.42 | 1.07 | 3.6 – 5.1 |
| 2029 | 4.26 | 9.57 | -1.44 | 2.87 – 5.64 |
| 2031 | 4.16 | 11.02 | -3.19 | 2.3 – 6.01 |
| 2036 | 3.91 | 13.61 | -5 | 1.14 – 6.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.74· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.68 | 33.89 | 29.77 | 30.7 – 32.66 |
| 2028 | 33.76 | 37.58 | 30.45 | 31.26 – 36.26 |
| 2030 | 35.84 | 40.78 | 31.57 | 31.77 – 39.91 |
| 2035 | 41.05 | 48.02 | 35 | 32.53 – 49.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.34typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.4m | 2.5m | 2.3m | 2.3m – 2.5m |
| 2029 | 2.4m | 2.5m | 2.3m | 2.2m – 2.6m |
| 2031 | 2.5m | 2.6m | 2.3m | 2.2m – 2.7m |
| 2036 | 2.5m | 2.7m | 2.4m | 2m – 3.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.4m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.72 | 12.74 | -6.55 | 0.31 – 3.12 |
| 2028 | 3.87 | 15 | -10 | 1.3 – 6.44 |
| 2030 | 6.03 | 15 | -10 | 2.46 – 9.59 |
| 2035 | 11.42 | 15 | -10 | 5.23 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.56typical miss · 1 realized · 76% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 930m | 1bn – 1.1bn |
| 2027 | 1.2bn | 1.4bn | 955.6m | 1.1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2029 | 1.3bn | 1.6bn | 1bn | 1.1bn – 1.4bn |
| 2034 | 1.6bn | 2bn | 1.2bn | 1.2bn – 1.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.54(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.19 | 6.74 | 3.63 | 4.87 – 5.51 |
| 2027 | 4.78 | 7.47 | 2.08 | 4.13 – 5.42 |
| 2029 | 4.57 | 8.05 | 1.09 | 3.67 – 5.47 |
| 2034 | 4.41 | 9.33 | 0 | 2.95 – 5.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.65· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.1bn | 1.2bn | 930m | 1bn – 1.1bn |
| 2027 | 1.2bn | 1.4bn | 955.6m | 1.1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2029 | 1.3bn | 1.6bn | 1bn | 1.1bn – 1.4bn |
| 2034 | 1.6bn | 2bn | 1.2bn | 1.2bn – 1.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.85 | 17.02 | 14.68 | 15.36 – 16.34 |
| 2028 | 14.92 | 16.95 | 12.9 | 13.82 – 16.03 |
| 2030 | 13.99 | 16.61 | 11.38 | 12.41 – 15.58 |
| 2035 | 11.67 | 15.37 | 7.98 | 9.24 – 14.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.06· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LSO · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 16.44 | 2026 (1.1) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 16.6071 + -0.1502·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.63 over 39 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 50.89 | 2024 (2.1) |
| 2028 | 54.27 | 2025 (-3.3) |
| 2029 | 54.33 | 2026 (-3.4) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 52.2021 + -0.626·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.56 over 52 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.6bn | 2026 (4.2) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1917093147.711 + -67585110.7986·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.548 over 53 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.94 | 2026 (3bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 14.5435 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LSO?indicator= · API docs
