Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Morocco: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Morocco's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.87 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 133.2bn | 2025 (9) |
Latest observed-3.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.06 | -0.14 | -5.98 | -3.71 – -2.41 |
| 2029 | -2.98 | 2.09 | -8.04 | -4.16 – -1.8 |
| 2031 | -2.9 | 3.64 | -9.44 | -4.46 – -1.33 |
| 2036 | -2.7 | 6.55 | -11.94 | -5.01 – -0.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.08· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.67 | 53.27 | 35.35 | 41.6 – 45.74 |
| 2028 | 47.07 | 63.71 | 32.66 | 42.44 – 51.71 |
| 2030 | 50.48 | 71.95 | 31.87 | 43.37 – 57.58 |
| 2035 | 58.99 | 89.36 | 32.67 | 45.21 – 72.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.77· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.73typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed182.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 205.7bn | 231.3bn | 183.5bn | 199.3bn – 212.1bn |
| 2029 | 233.6bn | 277.9bn | 195.3bn | 216.3bn – 250.9bn |
| 2031 | 261.6bn | 318.7bn | 212bn | 231.9bn – 291.3bn |
| 2036 | 331.4bn | 412.2bn | 261.4bn | 262.7bn – 400.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead204.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.13 | 11.24 | -0.16 | 4.04 – 6.23 |
| 2029 | 5.65 | 12 | -3.51 | 3.62 – 7.69 |
| 2031 | 6.17 | 12 | -5.66 | 3.4 – 8.94 |
| 2036 | 7.46 | 12 | -9.27 | 3.05 – 11.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.84· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.4k | 6.1k | 4.8k | 5.2k – 5.6k |
| 2029 | 6.1k | 7.3k | 5.1k | 5.6k – 6.5k |
| 2031 | 6.8k | 8.4k | 5.5k | 6k – 7.6k |
| 2036 | 8.6k | 10.8k | 6.7k | 6.8k – 10.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.4k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 66.55 | 74.24 | 57.68 | 64.31 – 68.8 |
| 2029 | 68.06 | 81.37 | 52.7 | 62.74 – 73.37 |
| 2031 | 69.56 | 86.75 | 49.73 | 61.35 – 77.77 |
| 2036 | 73.33 | 97.63 | 45.28 | 57.86 – 88.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead66.2· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.88 | 64.59 | 41.18 | 50.25 – 55.52 |
| 2028 | 56.39 | 76.65 | 36.12 | 50.58 – 62.2 |
| 2030 | 59.89 | 86.05 | 33.72 | 51.09 – 68.69 |
| 2035 | 68.65 | 105.65 | 31.64 | 52 – 85.29 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead51.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.77typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.69 | 8.39 | -5 | 0.18 – 3.21 |
| 2029 | 2.53 | 14.13 | -5 | -0.16 – 5.23 |
| 2031 | 3.37 | 18.35 | -5 | -0.22 – 6.96 |
| 2036 | 5.46 | 26.64 | -5 | -0.11 – 11.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.06· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.82 | 28.72 | 25.17 | 25.99 – 27.65 |
| 2028 | 26.88 | 30.18 | 24.03 | 24.89 – 28.87 |
| 2030 | 26.95 | 31.2 | 23.26 | 23.89 – 30.01 |
| 2035 | 27.1 | 33.12 | 21.89 | 21.48 – 32.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.7· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.53typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 37.9m | 39.7m | 36.2m | 36.7m – 39.1m |
| 2029 | 37.5m | 39.2m | 35.8m | 34.7m – 40.2m |
| 2031 | 37m | 38.8m | 35.4m | 32.8m – 41.2m |
| 2036 | 36m | 37.7m | 34.4m | 28.5m – 43.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead38.3m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.9 | 11.67 | -1.92 | 2.87 – 4.94 |
| 2028 | 5.22 | 15 | -4.87 | 3.29 – 7.15 |
| 2030 | 6.54 | 15 | -6.49 | 3.85 – 9.24 |
| 2035 | 9.84 | 15 | -8.58 | 5.2 – 14.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.81typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48.2bn | 57.2bn | 39.1bn | 46bn – 50.3bn |
| 2028 | 55.3bn | 71bn | 39.6bn | 50.2bn – 60.3bn |
| 2030 | 62.4bn | 82.6bn | 42.1bn | 54.3bn – 70.5bn |
| 2035 | 80.1bn | 108.8bn | 51.5bn | 62.9bn – 97.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.97 | 8.97 | 2.97 | 5.41 – 6.52 |
| 2028 | 6.01 | 11.21 | 0.82 | 4.93 – 7.1 |
| 2030 | 6.04 | 12.74 | 0 | 4.53 – 7.55 |
| 2035 | 6.05 | 15.54 | 0 | 3.63 – 8.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.94· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.6bn | 61.3bn | 42bn | 49.3bn – 53.9bn |
| 2028 | 59.6bn | 76.3bn | 42.9bn | 54.2bn – 65bn |
| 2030 | 67.6bn | 89.2bn | 46bn | 58.9bn – 76.3bn |
| 2035 | 87.6bn | 118.1bn | 57.1bn | 68.9bn – 106.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead51bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.41 | 15.35 | 9.46 | 11.76 – 13.06 |
| 2029 | 12.82 | 17.92 | 7.71 | 11.42 – 14.22 |
| 2031 | 13.23 | 19.82 | 6.64 | 11.16 – 15.3 |
| 2036 | 14.26 | 23.58 | 4.94 | 10.55 – 17.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.59· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MAR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 71.2bn | 2026 (12.2) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 307609780819.3151 + -19374431918.9488·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.758 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.3 | 2025 (182.4bn) |
| 2028 | 6.86 | 2026 (194.3bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 14.0052 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.526 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.89 | 2024 (9.1) |
| 2028 | -3.96 | 2025 (9) |
| 2029 | -1.55 | 2026 (12.2) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -10.7507 + 0.754·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MAR?indicator= · API docs
