Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Morocco: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Morocco's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.887 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 127.4bn | 2024 (9.1) |
Latest observed-4.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.07 | 0.95 | -5.08 | -2.72 – -1.42 |
| 2028 | -1.4 | 3.82 | -6.63 | -2.54 – -0.27 |
| 2030 | -0.74 | 6.01 | -7.48 | -2.2 – 0.72 |
| 2035 | 0.92 | 10.46 | -8.62 | -1.19 – 3.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-4.97· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.83typical miss · 1 realized · 58% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.67 | 53.27 | 35.35 | 41.6 – 45.74 |
| 2028 | 47.07 | 63.71 | 32.66 | 42.44 – 51.71 |
| 2030 | 50.48 | 71.95 | 31.87 | 43.37 – 57.58 |
| 2035 | 58.99 | 89.36 | 32.67 | 45.21 – 72.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.77· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.73typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed182.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 192.9bn | 219bn | 170.4bn | 186.8bn – 199.1bn |
| 2028 | 218.9bn | 264bn | 179.8bn | 202.7bn – 235.1bn |
| 2030 | 244.8bn | 303bn | 194.4bn | 217bn – 272.6bn |
| 2035 | 309.7bn | 392bn | 238.3bn | 245.4bn – 373.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead206.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.7bntypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.28 | 12 | -7.63 | 2.72 – 7.85 |
| 2028 | 6.9 | 12 | -10 | 2.27 – 11.53 |
| 2030 | 8.52 | 12 | -10 | 2.28 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.23 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.78typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.9k | 5.6k | 4.3k | 4.7k – 5.1k |
| 2028 | 5.5k | 6.7k | 4.5k | 5.1k – 5.9k |
| 2030 | 6.1k | 7.6k | 4.8k | 5.4k – 6.8k |
| 2035 | 7.6k | 9.7k | 5.7k | 6k – 9.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±231.99typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.66 | 75.34 | 58.81 | 65.4 – 69.93 |
| 2028 | 69.79 | 83.08 | 54.45 | 64.39 – 75.18 |
| 2030 | 71.92 | 89.07 | 52.12 | 63.52 – 80.31 |
| 2035 | 77.23 | 101.5 | 49.23 | 61.14 – 93.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead67.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.06typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.88 | 64.59 | 41.18 | 50.25 – 55.52 |
| 2028 | 56.39 | 76.65 | 36.12 | 50.58 – 62.2 |
| 2030 | 59.89 | 86.05 | 33.72 | 51.09 – 68.69 |
| 2035 | 68.65 | 105.65 | 31.64 | 52 – 85.29 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead51.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.77typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.02 | 7.73 | -5 | -0.48 – 2.52 |
| 2028 | 0.62 | 12.24 | -5 | -2 – 3.25 |
| 2030 | 0.23 | 15.22 | -5 | -3.18 – 3.63 |
| 2035 | -0.77 | 20.44 | -5 | -5 – 4.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.55· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.12typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.82 | 28.72 | 25.17 | 25.99 – 27.65 |
| 2028 | 26.88 | 30.18 | 24.03 | 24.89 – 28.87 |
| 2030 | 26.95 | 31.2 | 23.26 | 23.89 – 30.01 |
| 2035 | 27.1 | 33.12 | 21.89 | 21.48 – 32.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.7· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.53typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.3m | 40.1m | 36.6m | 37.1m – 39.5m |
| 2028 | 38.7m | 40.5m | 37m | 35.8m – 41.6m |
| 2030 | 39.1m | 40.9m | 37.4m | 34.7m – 43.5m |
| 2035 | 40.1m | 42m | 38.3m | 31.7m – 48.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead38.3m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±278.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.9 | 11.67 | -1.92 | 2.87 – 4.94 |
| 2028 | 5.22 | 15 | -4.87 | 3.29 – 7.15 |
| 2030 | 6.54 | 15 | -6.49 | 3.85 – 9.24 |
| 2035 | 9.84 | 15 | -8.58 | 5.2 – 14.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.81typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48.2bn | 57.2bn | 39.1bn | 46bn – 50.3bn |
| 2028 | 55.3bn | 71bn | 39.6bn | 50.2bn – 60.3bn |
| 2030 | 62.4bn | 82.6bn | 42.1bn | 54.3bn – 70.5bn |
| 2035 | 80.1bn | 108.8bn | 51.5bn | 62.9bn – 97.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.97 | 8.97 | 2.97 | 5.41 – 6.52 |
| 2028 | 6.01 | 11.21 | 0.82 | 4.93 – 7.1 |
| 2030 | 6.04 | 12.74 | 0 | 4.53 – 7.55 |
| 2035 | 6.05 | 15.54 | 0 | 3.63 – 8.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.94· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.6bn | 61.3bn | 42bn | 49.3bn – 53.9bn |
| 2028 | 59.6bn | 76.3bn | 42.9bn | 54.2bn – 65bn |
| 2030 | 67.6bn | 89.2bn | 46bn | 58.9bn – 76.3bn |
| 2035 | 87.6bn | 118.1bn | 57.1bn | 68.9bn – 106.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead51bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.55 | 9.45 | 7.64 | 8.27 – 8.82 |
| 2028 | 7.65 | 9.21 | 6.08 | 7.04 – 8.25 |
| 2030 | 6.74 | 8.76 | 4.72 | 5.89 – 7.59 |
| 2035 | 4.48 | 7.34 | 1.62 | 3.33 – 5.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.59· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.65typical miss · 1 realized · 30% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MAR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 129.3bn | 2025 (9) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 294952347514.9039 + -18404153657.026·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.859 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.75 | 2025 (182.4bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 14.513 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.531 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.13 | 2023 (8.9) |
| 2027 | -3.97 | 2024 (9.1) |
| 2028 | -4.05 | 2025 (9) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -11.0279 + 0.7754·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MAR?indicator= · API docs
