Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
MEQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, MEQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.626 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 41.86 | 2026 (2.7) |
Latest observed2.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.84 | 11.42 | -5.75 | 1.04 – 4.63 |
| 2029 | 3.11 | 17.98 | -11.76 | -0.07 – 6.29 |
| 2031 | 3.38 | 22.58 | -15.81 | -0.8 – 7.57 |
| 2036 | 4.07 | 30 | -23.08 | -2.12 – 10.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.16· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.22typical miss · 20 realized · 183% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.1T | 4.8T | 3.5T | 3.9T – 4.3T |
| 2029 | 4.4T | 5.7T | 3.3T | 4.1T – 4.8T |
| 2031 | 4.7T | 6.3T | 3.3T | 4.2T – 5.3T |
| 2036 | 5.5T | 7.8T | 3.5T | 4.4T – 6.7T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.1T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±780.1bntypical miss · 20 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.49 | 4.62 | -6.78 | -2.53 – -0.44 |
| 2029 | -4.07 | 6.51 | -10 | -6.03 – -2.11 |
| 2031 | -6.65 | 7 | -10 | -9.46 – -3.85 |
| 2036 | -10 | 9.31 | -10 | -10 – -5.18 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.47typical miss · 20 realized · 452% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.9k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 16.2k | 19.3k | 13.4k | 15.5k – 16.8k |
| 2029 | 16.9k | 22.5k | 12.2k | 15.5k – 18.4k |
| 2031 | 17.7k | 24.8k | 11.6k | 15.5k – 20k |
| 2036 | 19.7k | 29.8k | 11k | 15.3k – 24k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.4ktypical miss · 20 realized · 28% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 45.13 | 53.98 | 34.92 | 43.04 – 47.21 |
| 2029 | 45.98 | 61.31 | 28.3 | 41.42 – 50.55 |
| 2031 | 46.84 | 66.62 | 24.01 | 40.05 – 53.63 |
| 2036 | 48.97 | 76.95 | 16.69 | 36.83 – 61.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.88· skill-weighted across models
Track record±13.38typical miss · 20 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.14 | 19.65 | 10.31 | 13.9 – 16.38 |
| 2029 | 18.92 | 26.73 | 10.56 | 16.28 – 21.56 |
| 2031 | 22.7 | 32.78 | 11.9 | 18.65 – 26.75 |
| 2036 | 32.15 | 46.4 | 16.88 | 23.85 – 40.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.82typical miss · 20 realized · 59% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed250.7m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 249.5m | 261.3m | 238.6m | 241.8m – 257.3m |
| 2029 | 253.9m | 265.9m | 242.8m | 235.1m – 272.7m |
| 2031 | 258.3m | 270.5m | 247m | 229m – 287.7m |
| 2036 | 269.3m | 282.1m | 257.5m | 213.5m – 325.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead254.4m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±15.2mtypical miss · 20 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-03 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MEQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 45.2687 + -1.2635·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MEQ?indicator= · API docs
