Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
MEQ: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, MEQ's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.619 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.99 | 2025 (3.2) |
Latest observed-0.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.38 | 12.25 | -5.49 | 1.52 – 5.25 |
| 2028 | 3.74 | 19.11 | -11.62 | 0.43 – 7.06 |
| 2030 | 4.1 | 23.94 | -15.73 | -0.27 – 8.48 |
| 2035 | 5.01 | 30 | -23.04 | -1.52 – 11.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.05· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.48typical miss · 1 realized · 3481% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.9T | 4.6T | 3.2T | 3.7T – 4T |
| 2028 | 4.1T | 5.4T | 3T | 3.7T – 4.4T |
| 2030 | 4.3T | 5.9T | 2.9T | 3.8T – 4.8T |
| 2035 | 4.8T | 7.2T | 2.8T | 3.8T – 5.9T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.1T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±88bntypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-5.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.05 | 12 | -4.99 | 1.46 – 4.65 |
| 2028 | 3.75 | 12 | -10 | 0.89 – 6.6 |
| 2030 | 4.44 | 12 | -10 | 0.62 – 8.25 |
| 2035 | 6.17 | 12 | -10 | 0.29 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-7.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.45typical miss · 1 realized · 157% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.7k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.4k | 18.6k | 12.6k | 14.8k – 16k |
| 2028 | 15.8k | 21.4k | 10.9k | 14.4k – 17.2k |
| 2030 | 16.1k | 23.3k | 9.9k | 14k – 18.3k |
| 2035 | 17k | 27.2k | 8.2k | 13.1k – 21k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±330.43typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.54 | 52.36 | 33.37 | 41.49 – 45.6 |
| 2028 | 44.23 | 59.51 | 26.6 | 39.76 – 48.7 |
| 2030 | 44.92 | 64.64 | 22.16 | 38.29 – 51.54 |
| 2035 | 46.63 | 74.52 | 14.45 | 34.88 – 58.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.59· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.76typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.68 | 16.88 | 8.19 | 11.55 – 13.82 |
| 2028 | 16.18 | 23.45 | 8.39 | 13.79 – 18.57 |
| 2030 | 19.68 | 29.07 | 9.63 | 16.03 – 23.34 |
| 2035 | 28.43 | 41.7 | 14.21 | 20.94 – 35.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.62typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed251.2m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 246m | 257.6m | 235.2m | 238.3m – 253.6m |
| 2028 | 250.4m | 262.2m | 239.4m | 231.9m – 268.9m |
| 2030 | 254.8m | 266.8m | 243.6m | 225.9m – 283.7m |
| 2035 | 265.9m | 278.4m | 254.2m | 210.7m – 321m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead254.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.2mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MEQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 44.9738 + -1.2441·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MEQ?indicator= · API docs
