Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Mauritania: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2022, 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Mauritania's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.728 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -16.56 | 2026 (37.1) |
Latest observed-6.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -6.06 | 1.59 | -13.71 | -7.72 – -4.4 |
| 2029 | -5.19 | 8.07 | -18.44 | -8.14 – -2.23 |
| 2031 | -4.31 | 12.8 | -21.42 | -8.15 – -0.47 |
| 2036 | -2.12 | 22.08 | -26.32 | -7.4 – 3.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-6.35· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.96 | 45.51 | 35.15 | 38.53 – 41.39 |
| 2028 | 40.17 | 49.78 | 31.84 | 36.87 – 43.47 |
| 2030 | 40.38 | 52.78 | 29.63 | 35.38 – 45.38 |
| 2035 | 40.9 | 58.45 | 25.7 | 31.85 – 49.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.13typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.1bn | 16.8bn | 13.7bn | 14.7bn – 15.6bn |
| 2029 | 17.2bn | 20.1bn | 14.7bn | 15.9bn – 18.5bn |
| 2031 | 19.3bn | 23bn | 16.1bn | 17.1bn – 21.5bn |
| 2036 | 24.4bn | 29.6bn | 19.9bn | 19.4bn – 29.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.94 | 9.84 | -1.18 | 2.89 – 4.98 |
| 2029 | 2.96 | 12 | -5.91 | 1.11 – 4.81 |
| 2031 | 1.98 | 12 | -9.46 | -0.38 – 4.34 |
| 2036 | -0.46 | 12 | -10 | -3.73 – 2.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.52· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.2k | 3.8k | 2.7k | 3.1k – 3.3k |
| 2029 | 3.6k | 4.6k | 2.8k | 3.3k – 3.9k |
| 2031 | 4.1k | 5.4k | 3k | 3.6k – 4.6k |
| 2036 | 5.2k | 7k | 3.6k | 4.1k – 6.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.2k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 34.72 | 38.94 | 29.86 | 33.52 – 35.93 |
| 2029 | 29.97 | 37.27 | 21.55 | 27.41 – 32.53 |
| 2031 | 25.22 | 34.65 | 14.35 | 21.75 – 28.69 |
| 2036 | 13.34 | 26.67 | 0 | 9.16 – 17.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.92· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.84 | 67.98 | 41.7 | 51.95 – 57.72 |
| 2028 | 56.16 | 78.92 | 33.4 | 49.98 – 62.34 |
| 2030 | 57.49 | 86.87 | 28.11 | 48.39 – 66.59 |
| 2035 | 60.81 | 102.36 | 19.26 | 44.72 – 76.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead54.89· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.82typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.55(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.29 | 12.88 | -2.83 | 3.53 – 7.06 |
| 2029 | 8.87 | 22.01 | -5 | 5.53 – 12.21 |
| 2031 | 12.44 | 29.4 | -5 | 7.68 – 17.2 |
| 2036 | 21.37 | 45.36 | -4.33 | 12.63 – 30.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.15· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.3 | 33.99 | 19.65 | 24.79 – 27.82 |
| 2028 | 24.83 | 38.13 | 13.3 | 21.74 – 27.92 |
| 2030 | 23.35 | 40.53 | 8.47 | 19.03 – 27.67 |
| 2035 | 19.66 | 43.95 | 0 | 13.05 – 26.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.16typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.6m | 5m | 4.2m | 4.5m – 4.8m |
| 2029 | 4m | 4.7m | 3.3m | 3.7m – 4.3m |
| 2031 | 3.3m | 4.3m | 2.4m | 3m – 3.7m |
| 2036 | 1.7m | 3.1m | 475.7k | 1.3m – 2.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.06 | 6.05 | -2.69 | 0.42 – 1.7 |
| 2028 | 1.26 | 9.9 | -5.23 | 0.12 – 2.4 |
| 2030 | 1.46 | 12.62 | -6.91 | -0.05 – 2.97 |
| 2035 | 1.97 | 15 | -9.87 | -0.32 – 4.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.22· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.68typical miss · 1 realized · 273% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2bn(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.3bn | 2.7bn | 1.9bn | 2.2bn – 2.4bn |
| 2024 | 2.9bn | 3.5bn | 2.2bn | 2.6bn – 3.1bn |
| 2026 | 3.5bn | 4.3bn | 2.6bn | 3bn – 3.9bn |
| 2031 | 4.9bn | 6.2bn | 3.7bn | 3.9bn – 6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.41(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4.83 | 6.26 | 3.4 | 4.53 – 5.13 |
| 2024 | 4.13 | 6.62 | 1.65 | 3.55 – 4.71 |
| 2026 | 3.79 | 7 | 0.59 | 3 – 4.59 |
| 2031 | 3.52 | 8.05 | 0 | 2.26 – 4.78 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.68· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2bn(2021)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.3bn | 2.7bn | 1.9bn | 2.2bn – 2.4bn |
| 2024 | 2.9bn | 3.5bn | 2.2bn | 2.6bn – 3.1bn |
| 2026 | 3.4bn | 4.3bn | 2.6bn | 3bn – 3.9bn |
| 2031 | 4.9bn | 6.1bn | 3.7bn | 3.9bn – 5.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.14 | 10.63 | 9.64 | 9.82 – 10.45 |
| 2028 | 9.77 | 10.62 | 8.92 | 9.05 – 10.49 |
| 2030 | 9.4 | 10.49 | 8.31 | 8.33 – 10.47 |
| 2035 | 8.48 | 10.03 | 6.93 | 6.72 – 10.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.39· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MRT · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -33.0423 + 0.4442·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.663 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.68 | 2023 (10.7bn) |
| 2027 | 10.7 | 2024 (10.9bn) |
| 2028 | 10.77 | 2025 (11.7bn) |
| 2029 | 11.02 | 2026 (14.4bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 9.6772 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.616 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.7bn | 2024 (10.26) |
| 2028 | 7.1bn | 2025 (10.32) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -50560667314.2976 + 5583497647.447·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.579 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.29 | 2025 (40.1) |
| 2028 | 6.87 | 2026 (37.1) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 14.0471 + -0.1934·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MRT?indicator= · API docs
