Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Paraguay: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Paraguay's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.597 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.27 | 2023 (41) |
Latest observed-2.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.05 | 4.7 | -10.81 | -4.69 – -1.42 |
| 2028 | -4.16 | 9.26 | -17.59 | -7.1 – -1.22 |
| 2030 | -5.27 | 12.06 | -22.61 | -9.23 – -1.31 |
| 2035 | -8.05 | 16.47 | -30 | -14.34 – -1.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.22· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.25typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37.61 | 45.43 | 30.83 | 35.89 – 39.33 |
| 2028 | 38.47 | 52.02 | 26.73 | 34.69 – 42.26 |
| 2030 | 39.34 | 56.83 | 24.18 | 33.69 – 44.98 |
| 2035 | 41.5 | 66.24 | 20.06 | 31.33 – 51.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead37.53· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.22typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.8bn | 56.4bn | 46bn | 49.3bn – 52.4bn |
| 2028 | 54.9bn | 64.4bn | 46.6bn | 50.8bn – 58.9bn |
| 2030 | 58.9bn | 71.3bn | 48.2bn | 52.2bn – 65.6bn |
| 2035 | 69bn | 86.5bn | 53.8bn | 54.7bn – 83.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead67.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±13.2bntypical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.36 | 12 | 1.01 | 6.02 – 8.69 |
| 2028 | 9.17 | 12 | -1.82 | 6.61 – 11.72 |
| 2030 | 10.98 | 12 | -3.21 | 7.37 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -8.06 | 6.22 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.86typical miss · 1 realized · 63% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.2k | 8k | 6.5k | 7k – 7.4k |
| 2028 | 7.6k | 9k | 6.4k | 7k – 8.2k |
| 2030 | 8k | 9.9k | 6.4k | 7.1k – 8.9k |
| 2035 | 9.1k | 11.7k | 6.8k | 7.2k – 11k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 27% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.12 | 48.95 | 32.08 | 39.25 – 42.98 |
| 2028 | 46.95 | 60.52 | 31.3 | 42.61 – 51.29 |
| 2030 | 52.78 | 70.3 | 32.58 | 45.87 – 59.7 |
| 2035 | 67.37 | 92.14 | 38.79 | 52.78 – 81.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead38.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.52typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.34 | 47.01 | 33.67 | 38.68 – 42.01 |
| 2028 | 42.43 | 53.98 | 30.88 | 38.62 – 46.23 |
| 2030 | 44.51 | 59.42 | 29.6 | 38.67 – 50.35 |
| 2035 | 49.72 | 70.81 | 28.63 | 38.54 – 60.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.83· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.4typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.28 | 11.31 | -3.25 | 2.66 – 5.91 |
| 2028 | 4.57 | 16.74 | -5 | 1.65 – 7.48 |
| 2030 | 4.85 | 20.56 | -5 | 0.98 – 8.72 |
| 2035 | 5.56 | 27.78 | -5 | -0.26 – 11.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.54· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.18typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.75 | 24.89 | 19.03 | 20.95 – 22.55 |
| 2028 | 21.89 | 27.33 | 17.18 | 20.06 – 23.72 |
| 2030 | 22.03 | 29.05 | 15.95 | 19.27 – 24.8 |
| 2035 | 22.39 | 32.32 | 13.78 | 17.39 – 27.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.05typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7m | 7.3m | 6.7m | 6.8m – 7.2m |
| 2028 | 7.1m | 7.4m | 6.8m | 6.6m – 7.6m |
| 2030 | 7.2m | 7.5m | 6.9m | 6.4m – 8m |
| 2035 | 7.4m | 7.8m | 7.1m | 5.9m – 8.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.5m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±530.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.08 | 9.41 | 1.84 | 4.46 – 5.7 |
| 2028 | 7.4 | 14.9 | 1.78 | 6.11 – 8.69 |
| 2030 | 9.72 | 15 | 2.46 | 7.73 – 11.71 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | 4.74 | 10.89 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.7· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.06typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.9bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.9bn | 10bn | 7.8bn | 8.6bn – 9.2bn |
| 2027 | 9.1bn | 11bn | 7.2bn | 8.4bn – 9.8bn |
| 2029 | 9.3bn | 11.8bn | 6.8bn | 8.1bn – 10.4bn |
| 2034 | 9.7bn | 13.2bn | 6.2bn | 7.6bn – 11.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.55(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.8 | 8.33 | 3.27 | 5.32 – 6.28 |
| 2027 | 6.1 | 10.48 | 1.71 | 5.13 – 7.06 |
| 2029 | 6.24 | 11.9 | 0.59 | 4.88 – 7.61 |
| 2034 | 6.36 | 14.36 | 0 | 4.12 – 8.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.4· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.6bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.7bn | 10.8bn | 8.5bn | 9.3bn – 10bn |
| 2027 | 10bn | 11.9bn | 8bn | 9.2bn – 10.7bn |
| 2029 | 10.2bn | 12.7bn | 7.7bn | 9bn – 11.4bn |
| 2034 | 10.9bn | 14.5bn | 7.4bn | 8.6bn – 13.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.24 | 4.91 | 3.58 | 4.07 – 4.41 |
| 2028 | 3.13 | 4.28 | 1.98 | 2.8 – 3.45 |
| 2030 | 2.01 | 3.49 | 0.52 | 1.62 – 2.4 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 – 0.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.46typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PRY · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 11.01 | 2024 (44.6) |
| 2028 | 9.68 | 2025 (38.2) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 1.7369 + 0.208·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.538 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.02 | 2025 (4.8) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -3.4929 + 5.5203·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PRY?indicator= · API docs
