Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Paraguay: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Paraguay's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.551 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.51 | 2024 (44.6) |
Latest observed-3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -3.61 | 4 | -11.22 | -5.22 – -2 |
| 2029 | -4.82 | 8.36 | -18 | -7.74 – -1.9 |
| 2031 | -6.03 | 10.99 | -23.05 | -9.98 – -2.07 |
| 2036 | -9.06 | 15 | -30 | -15.42 – -2.7 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.42· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37.61 | 45.43 | 30.83 | 35.89 – 39.33 |
| 2028 | 38.47 | 52.02 | 26.73 | 34.69 – 42.26 |
| 2030 | 39.34 | 56.83 | 24.18 | 33.69 – 44.98 |
| 2035 | 41.5 | 66.24 | 20.06 | 31.33 – 51.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead37.53· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.22typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 64.1bn | 72.4bn | 56.9bn | 62.1bn – 66.1bn |
| 2029 | 73.2bn | 87.6bn | 60.8bn | 67.8bn – 78.7bn |
| 2031 | 82.4bn | 100.9bn | 66.3bn | 73bn – 91.7bn |
| 2036 | 105.2bn | 131.4bn | 82.5bn | 83.4bn – 127bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead63.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.27 | 11.22 | -1.75 | 3.05 – 5.5 |
| 2029 | 4.42 | 12 | -6 | 2.21 – 6.64 |
| 2031 | 4.58 | 12 | -8.88 | 1.62 – 7.53 |
| 2036 | 4.96 | 12 | -10 | 0.51 – 9.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.28· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.9k | 11.7k | 8.4k | 9.6k – 10.3k |
| 2029 | 11.4k | 14.4k | 8.8k | 10.5k – 12.3k |
| 2031 | 12.9k | 16.7k | 9.6k | 11.4k – 14.4k |
| 2036 | 16.6k | 22k | 11.9k | 13.2k – 20k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.8k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 40.12 | 48.05 | 30.96 | 38.25 – 41.98 |
| 2029 | 44.75 | 58.49 | 28.88 | 40.48 – 49.01 |
| 2031 | 49.38 | 67.12 | 28.9 | 42.7 – 56.06 |
| 2036 | 60.95 | 86.05 | 31.99 | 47.34 – 74.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.31· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.34 | 47.01 | 33.67 | 38.68 – 42.01 |
| 2028 | 42.43 | 53.98 | 30.88 | 38.62 – 46.23 |
| 2030 | 44.51 | 59.42 | 29.6 | 38.67 – 50.35 |
| 2035 | 49.72 | 70.81 | 28.63 | 38.54 – 60.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.83· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.4typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.04 | 9.58 | -3.97 | 1.54 – 4.54 |
| 2029 | 2 | 13.33 | -5 | -0.6 – 4.61 |
| 2031 | 0.97 | 15.6 | -5 | -2.35 – 4.29 |
| 2036 | -1.61 | 19.07 | -5 | -5 – 3.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.79· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.75 | 24.89 | 19.03 | 20.95 – 22.55 |
| 2028 | 21.89 | 27.33 | 17.18 | 20.06 – 23.72 |
| 2030 | 22.03 | 29.05 | 15.95 | 19.27 – 24.8 |
| 2035 | 22.39 | 32.32 | 13.78 | 17.39 – 27.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.05typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.4m | 6.8m | 6m | 6.2m – 6.6m |
| 2029 | 5.8m | 6.4m | 5.2m | 5.3m – 6.2m |
| 2031 | 5.2m | 6m | 4.4m | 4.6m – 5.7m |
| 2036 | 3.6m | 4.8m | 2.5m | 2.9m – 4.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.5m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.08 | 9.41 | 1.84 | 4.46 – 5.7 |
| 2028 | 7.4 | 14.9 | 1.78 | 6.11 – 8.69 |
| 2030 | 9.72 | 15 | 2.46 | 7.73 – 11.71 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | 4.74 | 10.89 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.7· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.06typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.9bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.9bn | 10bn | 7.8bn | 8.6bn – 9.2bn |
| 2027 | 9.1bn | 11bn | 7.2bn | 8.4bn – 9.8bn |
| 2029 | 9.3bn | 11.8bn | 6.8bn | 8.1bn – 10.4bn |
| 2034 | 9.7bn | 13.2bn | 6.2bn | 7.6bn – 11.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.55(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.8 | 8.33 | 3.27 | 5.32 – 6.28 |
| 2027 | 6.1 | 10.48 | 1.71 | 5.13 – 7.06 |
| 2029 | 6.24 | 11.9 | 0.59 | 4.88 – 7.61 |
| 2034 | 6.36 | 14.36 | 0 | 4.12 – 8.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.4· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.6bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.7bn | 10.8bn | 8.5bn | 9.3bn – 10bn |
| 2027 | 10bn | 11.9bn | 8bn | 9.2bn – 10.7bn |
| 2029 | 10.2bn | 12.7bn | 7.7bn | 9bn – 11.4bn |
| 2034 | 10.9bn | 14.5bn | 7.4bn | 8.6bn – 13.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.73 | 5.72 | 3.73 | 4.5 – 4.96 |
| 2029 | 3.78 | 5.51 | 2.06 | 3.34 – 4.23 |
| 2031 | 2.84 | 5.07 | 0.61 | 2.27 – 3.41 |
| 2036 | 0.48 | 3.63 | 0 | 0 – 1.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.96· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/PRY · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 9.27 | 2025 (38.1) |
| 2029 | 9.21 | 2026 (37.8) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 1.9991 + 0.1908·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.516 over 37 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 25.71 | 2026 (5.2) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -1.8532 + 5.3008·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/PRY?indicator= · API docs
