Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Sierra Leone: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Sierra Leone's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.794 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.7bn | 2023 (49.4) |
Latest observed-4.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.84 | -2.14 | -7.55 | -5.47 – -4.22 |
| 2028 | -4.13 | 0.55 | -8.81 | -5.29 – -2.98 |
| 2030 | -3.42 | 2.62 | -9.46 | -4.93 – -1.91 |
| 2035 | -1.64 | 6.91 | -10.19 | -3.65 – 0.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-4.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.14typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.56 | 29.05 | 16.93 | 21.27 – 23.84 |
| 2028 | 25.89 | 37.14 | 16.14 | 23.04 – 28.74 |
| 2030 | 29.22 | 43.74 | 16.63 | 24.8 – 33.63 |
| 2035 | 37.54 | 58.08 | 19.74 | 28.6 – 46.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.44typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.6bn | 8.4bn | 6.8bn | 7.3bn – 7.8bn |
| 2028 | 7.8bn | 9.3bn | 6.6bn | 7.3bn – 8.4bn |
| 2030 | 8.1bn | 10bn | 6.5bn | 7.2bn – 9bn |
| 2035 | 8.8bn | 11.5bn | 6.5bn | 7bn – 10.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±955.7mtypical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.51 | 10.94 | -1.06 | 3.36 – 5.65 |
| 2028 | 4.37 | 12 | -5.28 | 2.3 – 6.43 |
| 2030 | 4.22 | 12 | -8.23 | 1.49 – 6.96 |
| 2035 | 3.87 | 12 | -10 | -0.14 – 7.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.51typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed846.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 843.69 | 945.84 | 755.16 | 817.54 – 869.84 |
| 2028 | 839.71 | 1k | 686.38 | 777.59 – 901.84 |
| 2030 | 835.74 | 1.1k | 637.78 | 740.85 – 930.63 |
| 2035 | 825.79 | 1.1k | 545.84 | 654.5 – 997.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead955.21· skill-weighted across models
Track record±102.78typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed50.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.52 | 58.81 | 45.26 | 50.71 – 54.33 |
| 2028 | 54.76 | 65.66 | 42.19 | 50.46 – 59.07 |
| 2030 | 57 | 71.07 | 40.77 | 50.28 – 63.73 |
| 2035 | 62.61 | 82.5 | 39.65 | 49.53 – 75.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.42typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.61 | 40.86 | 16.36 | 26.28 – 30.94 |
| 2028 | 29.42 | 50.64 | 8.2 | 24.76 – 34.08 |
| 2030 | 30.23 | 57.63 | 2.83 | 23.62 – 36.84 |
| 2035 | 32.25 | 71 | 0 | 21.16 – 43.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.72typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.07 | 34.72 | -5 | -5 – 7.76 |
| 2028 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.54 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 12.57 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 20.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.66· skill-weighted across models
Track record±13.73typical miss · 1 realized · 100% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.03 | 27.56 | 20.97 | 23.14 – 24.92 |
| 2028 | 26.36 | 32.48 | 21.06 | 24.22 – 28.5 |
| 2030 | 28.69 | 36.59 | 21.84 | 25.27 – 32.11 |
| 2035 | 34.52 | 45.69 | 24.84 | 27.36 – 41.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.8m | 9.2m | 8.4m | 8.5m – 9m |
| 2028 | 9m | 9.4m | 8.6m | 8.3m – 9.6m |
| 2030 | 9.2m | 9.6m | 8.8m | 8.1m – 10.2m |
| 2035 | 9.7m | 10.1m | 9.2m | 7.6m – 11.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±231.3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.33 | 9.42 | -2.99 | 1.4 – 3.25 |
| 2028 | 2.62 | 14.91 | -6.59 | 0.96 – 4.28 |
| 2030 | 2.91 | 15 | -8.98 | 0.7 – 5.13 |
| 2035 | 3.65 | 15 | -10 | 0.26 – 7.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.45· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.74typical miss · 1 realized · 33% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed433.3m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 341.7m | 683.8m | 0 | 283.8m – 399.5m |
| 2027 | 138.6m | 731.2m | 0 | 41.3m – 236m |
| 2029 | 0 | 765m | 0 | 0 – 117.1m |
| 2034 | 0 | 1.1bn | 0 | 0 – 165.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead454m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.75(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.36 | 4.72 | 0.01 | 1.97 – 2.76 |
| 2027 | 3.1 | 7.17 | 0 | 2.32 – 3.87 |
| 2029 | 3.45 | 8.71 | 0 | 2.37 – 4.54 |
| 2034 | 3.74 | 11.18 | 0 | 2 – 5.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.47· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed433.3m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 341.7m | 683.8m | 0 | 283.8m – 399.5m |
| 2027 | 138.6m | 731.2m | 0 | 41.3m – 236m |
| 2029 | 0 | 765m | 0 | 0 – 117.1m |
| 2034 | 0 | 1.1bn | 0 | 0 – 165.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead454m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.06 | 3.4 | 2.72 | 2.96 – 3.16 |
| 2028 | 2.88 | 3.47 | 2.29 | 2.65 – 3.11 |
| 2030 | 2.7 | 3.46 | 1.93 | 2.36 – 3.03 |
| 2035 | 2.24 | 3.32 | 1.16 | 1.72 – 2.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.11· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SLE · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 5.8bn | 2024 (47) |
| 2028 | 5.6bn | 2025 (51.4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 8085051091.261 + -48142530.5248·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.674 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.87 | 2025 (7.5bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 91.4096 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.564 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.65 | 2023 (6.4bn) |
| 2027 | 3.59 | 2024 (7bn) |
| 2028 | 3.54 | 2025 (7.5bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.3261 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SLE?indicator= · API docs
