Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Small states: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Small states's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.872 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.27 | 2025 (337.3bn) |
Latest observed74.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 76.02 | 85.25 | 68.02 | 73.49 – 78.56 |
| 2028 | 78.19 | 94.18 | 64.33 | 72.15 – 84.23 |
| 2030 | 80.36 | 101 | 62.47 | 70.98 – 89.74 |
| 2035 | 85.78 | 114.97 | 60.48 | 67.88 – 103.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead75.49· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.22typical miss · 25 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed337.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 353.1bn | 391.5bn | 319.8bn | 342.1bn – 364bn |
| 2028 | 393.2bn | 459.8bn | 335.5bn | 364.2bn – 422.3bn |
| 2030 | 433.4bn | 519.4bn | 358.9bn | 384.2bn – 482.6bn |
| 2035 | 533.8bn | 655.4bn | 428.5bn | 423.1bn – 644.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead353.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±32.8bntypical miss · 25 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.71 | 12 | -6.43 | 2.5 – 6.93 |
| 2028 | 5.42 | 12 | -10 | 1.45 – 9.39 |
| 2030 | 6.13 | 12 | -10 | 0.85 – 11.41 |
| 2035 | 7.9 | 12 | -10 | -0.14 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.96typical miss · 25 realized · 101% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.3k | 19.2k | 15.6k | 16.7k – 17.8k |
| 2028 | 19k | 22.4k | 16.1k | 17.6k – 20.4k |
| 2030 | 20.8k | 25.1k | 17k | 18.4k – 23.1k |
| 2035 | 25.1k | 31.3k | 19.8k | 19.9k – 30.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.6ktypical miss · 25 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.16 | 77.02 | 65.29 | 68.95 – 73.36 |
| 2028 | 73.05 | 83.21 | 62.89 | 67.65 – 78.46 |
| 2030 | 74.94 | 88.06 | 61.83 | 66.43 – 83.45 |
| 2035 | 79.68 | 98.22 | 61.13 | 63.15 – 96.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead70.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.08typical miss · 25 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.25(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.46 | 7.14 | -2.55 | 1.38 – 3.54 |
| 2028 | 2.33 | 10.44 | -5 | 0.42 – 4.24 |
| 2030 | 2.21 | 12.67 | -5 | -0.29 – 4.7 |
| 2035 | 1.89 | 16.69 | -5 | -1.69 – 5.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.18· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.08typical miss · 4 realized · 164% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.78(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21.45 | 22.98 | 20.13 | 20.79 – 22.12 |
| 2027 | 20.6 | 23.24 | 18.31 | 19.07 – 22.12 |
| 2029 | 19.74 | 23.15 | 16.78 | 17.5 – 21.98 |
| 2034 | 17.6 | 22.42 | 13.42 | 13.95 – 21.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.65typical miss · 20 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.3m | 21.3m | 19.4m | 19.7m – 20.9m |
| 2028 | 20.5m | 21.4m | 19.6m | 19m – 22m |
| 2030 | 20.6m | 21.6m | 19.7m | 18.3m – 23m |
| 2035 | 21.1m | 22.1m | 20.1m | 16.7m – 25.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.5m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±545.3ktypical miss · 25 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.92 | 12.65 | -2.64 | 2.76 – 5.07 |
| 2028 | 5.26 | 15 | -6.09 | 3.12 – 7.41 |
| 2030 | 6.61 | 15 | -8.04 | 3.64 – 9.58 |
| 2035 | 9.98 | 15 | -10 | 4.93 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.43typical miss · 25 realized · 114% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.49(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.9 | 6.67 | 3.13 | 4.55 – 5.25 |
| 2027 | 5.38 | 8.45 | 2.31 | 4.65 – 6.11 |
| 2029 | 5.61 | 9.57 | 1.65 | 4.56 – 6.67 |
| 2034 | 5.8 | 11.4 | 0.2 | 4.02 – 7.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.25· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.44 | 8 | 6.88 | 7.21 – 7.67 |
| 2028 | 6.8 | 7.77 | 5.82 | 6.29 – 7.3 |
| 2030 | 6.15 | 7.41 | 4.9 | 5.46 – 6.85 |
| 2035 | 4.55 | 6.33 | 2.77 | 3.55 – 5.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.85· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.25typical miss · 20 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SST · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 10.8773 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.857 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 277.4bn | 2025 (7.76) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 856125907925.3167 + -74598635332.2827·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SST?indicator= · API docs
