Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Suriname: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2011, 2013, 2015, 2020, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Suriname's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.815 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.7bn | 2025 (7.83) |
Latest observed-51(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -30 | 2.91 | -30 | -30 – -22.8 |
| 2028 | -30 | 26.99 | -30 | -30 – -16.93 |
| 2030 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -12.58 |
| 2035 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -3.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-30· skill-weighted across models
Track record±21typical miss · 1 realized · 41% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.55(2010)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 51.51 | 67.91 | 37.29 | 48.34 – 54.67 |
| 2013 | 49.43 | 77.84 | 24.81 | 43 – 55.86 |
| 2015 | 47.35 | 84.02 | 15.56 | 38.32 – 56.37 |
| 2020 | 42.15 | 94.01 | 0 | 27.99 – 56.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.7bn | 6bn | 3.6bn | 4.5bn – 4.9bn |
| 2028 | 5.2bn | 7.4bn | 3.2bn | 4.6bn – 5.7bn |
| 2030 | 5.6bn | 8.5bn | 3.1bn | 4.8bn – 6.4bn |
| 2035 | 6.7bn | 10.9bn | 3.2bn | 5.2bn – 8.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.3bntypical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5 | 12 | -7.27 | 0.58 – 4.42 |
| 2028 | 4.31 | 12 | -10 | 0.85 – 7.77 |
| 2030 | 6.13 | 12 | -10 | 1.43 – 10.82 |
| 2035 | 10.66 | 12 | -10 | 3.01 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.52· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.5typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.3k | 9.4k | 5.5k | 6.9k – 7.7k |
| 2028 | 7.9k | 11.5k | 4.7k | 7.1k – 8.7k |
| 2030 | 8.5k | 13.2k | 4.4k | 7.2k – 9.7k |
| 2035 | 10k | 16.6k | 4.2k | 7.6k – 12.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 99.58 | 145.26 | 46.87 | 90.95 – 108.2 |
| 2028 | 104.93 | 184.05 | 13.64 | 87.72 – 122.14 |
| 2030 | 110.28 | 212.42 | 0 | 85.74 – 134.82 |
| 2035 | 123.66 | 268.11 | 0 | 81.65 – 165.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead85· skill-weighted across models
Track record±14.48typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.41(2010)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 36.67 | 47.25 | 26.08 | 34.46 – 38.87 |
| 2013 | 33.17 | 51.51 | 14.84 | 28.77 – 37.57 |
| 2015 | 29.68 | 53.35 | 6.01 | 23.68 – 35.68 |
| 2020 | 20.94 | 54.43 | 0 | 12.47 – 29.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.6 | 48.11 | -5 | 0.9 – 18.29 |
| 2028 | -0.24 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 14.6 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 14.49 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 22.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.21· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.9typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.54(2010)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 35.84 | 47.43 | 25.79 | 33.61 – 38.07 |
| 2013 | 31.82 | 51.89 | 14.43 | 27.43 – 36.22 |
| 2015 | 27.8 | 53.72 | 5.35 | 21.88 – 33.73 |
| 2020 | 17.76 | 54.41 | 0 | 9.69 – 25.84 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed639.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 638.3k | 668.5k | 610.3k | 618.5k – 658.1k |
| 2028 | 644.3k | 674.7k | 616k | 596.6k – 692k |
| 2030 | 650.3k | 681k | 621.7k | 576.4k – 724.1k |
| 2035 | 665.2k | 696.6k | 636k | 527.2k – 803.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead673.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±28.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.15 | 12.44 | -7.32 | -0.28 – 2.58 |
| 2028 | 2.28 | 15 | -10 | -0.27 – 4.84 |
| 2030 | 3.41 | 15 | -10 | -0.02 – 6.84 |
| 2035 | 6.24 | 15 | -10 | 0.78 – 11.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.15typical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6bn | 1.9bn | 1.2bn | 1.5bn – 1.6bn |
| 2028 | 1.8bn | 2.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2030 | 2.1bn | 2.9bn | 1.4bn | 1.8bn – 2.4bn |
| 2035 | 2.8bn | 3.9bn | 1.8bn | 2.2bn – 3.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.43 | 5.31 | 1.55 | 3.09 – 3.77 |
| 2028 | 3.6 | 6.86 | 0.35 | 2.93 – 4.28 |
| 2030 | 3.69 | 7.89 | 0 | 2.75 – 4.63 |
| 2035 | 3.76 | 9.7 | 0 | 2.25 – 5.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.42· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7bn | 2bn | 1.4bn | 1.7bn – 1.8bn |
| 2028 | 2.1bn | 2.6bn | 1.5bn | 1.9bn – 2.3bn |
| 2030 | 2.4bn | 3.1bn | 1.7bn | 2.1bn – 2.7bn |
| 2035 | 3.2bn | 4.2bn | 2.3bn | 2.5bn – 3.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.57 | 8.17 | 6.97 | 7.34 – 7.81 |
| 2028 | 7.04 | 8.09 | 6 | 6.52 – 7.56 |
| 2030 | 6.52 | 7.87 | 5.16 | 5.78 – 7.26 |
| 2035 | 5.2 | 7.11 | 3.29 | 4.07 – 6.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.43typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SUR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 7389599567.5744 + -474912170.2076·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.785 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.16 | 2025 (4.5bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 13.0984 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.703 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.5 | 2024 (7.62) |
| 2027 | 4.49 | 2025 (7.83) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -142.2365 + 18.7293·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SUR?indicator= · API docs
