Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Suriname: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2011, 2013, 2015, 2020, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Suriname's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.806 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.2bn | 2026 (9) |
Latest observed-44.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -30 | 4.78 | -30 | -30 – -22.42 |
| 2029 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -16.27 |
| 2031 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -11.73 |
| 2036 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -2.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-30· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.55(2010)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 51.51 | 67.91 | 37.29 | 48.34 – 54.67 |
| 2013 | 49.43 | 77.84 | 24.81 | 43 – 55.86 |
| 2015 | 47.35 | 84.02 | 15.56 | 38.32 – 56.37 |
| 2020 | 42.15 | 94.01 | 0 | 27.99 – 56.3 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.4bn | 8bn | 5bn | 6.1bn – 6.7bn |
| 2029 | 7.5bn | 10.3bn | 5.1bn | 6.8bn – 8.2bn |
| 2031 | 8.6bn | 12.2bn | 5.5bn | 7.5bn – 9.7bn |
| 2036 | 11.4bn | 16.5bn | 7bn | 9bn – 13.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.76 | 9 | 1.09 | 3.98 – 5.54 |
| 2029 | 6.75 | 12 | 0.39 | 5.2 – 8.29 |
| 2031 | 8.73 | 12 | 0.52 | 6.45 – 11.01 |
| 2036 | 12 | 12 | 0.39 | 7.85 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.4· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.4k | 11.9k | 7.3k | 9k – 9.9k |
| 2029 | 10.9k | 15.2k | 7.3k | 9.9k – 12k |
| 2031 | 12.4k | 17.9k | 7.7k | 10.8k – 14.1k |
| 2036 | 16.2k | 24k | 9.4k | 12.7k – 19.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.2k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed87.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 88.66 | 135.8 | 34.27 | 79.99 – 97.33 |
| 2029 | 91.77 | 173.42 | 0 | 74.81 – 108.74 |
| 2031 | 94.89 | 200.3 | 0 | 71.08 – 118.7 |
| 2036 | 102.68 | 251.75 | 0 | 63.32 – 142.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead87.19· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.41(2010)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 36.67 | 47.25 | 26.08 | 34.46 – 38.87 |
| 2013 | 33.17 | 51.51 | 14.84 | 28.77 – 37.57 |
| 2015 | 29.68 | 53.35 | 6.01 | 23.68 – 35.68 |
| 2020 | 20.94 | 54.43 | 0 | 12.47 – 29.42 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.45 | 41.74 | -5 | 8.17 – 20.73 |
| 2029 | 18.08 | 50 | -5 | 6.73 – 29.43 |
| 2031 | 21.71 | 50 | -5 | 6.45 – 36.98 |
| 2036 | 30.79 | 50 | -5 | 6.74 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.01· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.54(2010)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 35.84 | 47.43 | 25.79 | 33.61 – 38.07 |
| 2013 | 31.82 | 51.89 | 14.43 | 27.43 – 36.22 |
| 2015 | 27.8 | 53.72 | 5.35 | 21.88 – 33.73 |
| 2020 | 17.76 | 54.41 | 0 | 9.69 – 25.84 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed639.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 667.7k | 699.2k | 638.4k | 647k – 688.4k |
| 2029 | 697.6k | 730.5k | 667k | 646k – 749.2k |
| 2031 | 727.4k | 761.8k | 695.5k | 644.8k – 810k |
| 2036 | 802.1k | 842.3k | 764.7k | 635.7k – 968.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead673.5k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.15 | 12.44 | -7.32 | -0.28 – 2.58 |
| 2028 | 2.28 | 15 | -10 | -0.27 – 4.84 |
| 2030 | 3.41 | 15 | -10 | -0.02 – 6.84 |
| 2035 | 6.24 | 15 | -10 | 0.78 – 11.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.15typical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6bn | 1.9bn | 1.2bn | 1.5bn – 1.6bn |
| 2028 | 1.8bn | 2.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2030 | 2.1bn | 2.9bn | 1.4bn | 1.8bn – 2.4bn |
| 2035 | 2.8bn | 3.9bn | 1.8bn | 2.2bn – 3.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.44 | 5.31 | 1.56 | 3.09 – 3.78 |
| 2028 | 3.61 | 6.85 | 0.36 | 2.94 – 4.28 |
| 2030 | 3.69 | 7.88 | 0 | 2.75 – 4.63 |
| 2035 | 3.76 | 9.68 | 0 | 2.25 – 5.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.43· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7bn | 2bn | 1.4bn | 1.7bn – 1.8bn |
| 2028 | 2.1bn | 2.6bn | 1.5bn | 1.9bn – 2.3bn |
| 2030 | 2.4bn | 3.1bn | 1.7bn | 2.1bn – 2.7bn |
| 2035 | 3.2bn | 4.2bn | 2.3bn | 2.5bn – 3.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.03 | 10.27 | 7.79 | 8.69 – 9.36 |
| 2029 | 9.08 | 11.23 | 6.93 | 8.32 – 9.85 |
| 2031 | 9.14 | 11.92 | 6.36 | 7.98 – 10.3 |
| 2036 | 9.28 | 13.2 | 5.35 | 7.19 – 11.36 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.12· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/SUR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 7611976118.8639 + -491143223.8522·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.778 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.52 | 2026 (5.9bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 13.0566 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.704 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.01 | 2025 (7.83) |
| 2028 | 26.74 | 2026 (9) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -140.974 + 18.6346·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/SUR?indicator= · API docs
