Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Sub-Saharan Africa (IDA & IBRD countries): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Sub-Saharan Africa (IDA & IBRD countries)'s strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.711 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.99 | 2025 (4.14) |
Latest observed27.86(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.79 | 33.8 | 24.45 | 27.62 – 29.97 |
| 2028 | 30.66 | 39.33 | 23.15 | 27.95 – 33.37 |
| 2030 | 32.53 | 43.72 | 22.83 | 28.32 – 36.73 |
| 2035 | 37.19 | 53.02 | 23.48 | 28.98 – 45.4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.11typical miss · 25 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2T | 2.6T | 1.9T | 2.1T – 2.3T |
| 2028 | 2.2T | 2.8T | 1.6T | 2T – 2.4T |
| 2030 | 2.2T | 3T | 1.4T | 1.9T – 2.4T |
| 2035 | 2.1T | 3.4T | 1.1T | 1.7T – 2.6T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.2T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±378.8bntypical miss · 25 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.88 | 10.76 | -0.22 | 3.82 – 5.93 |
| 2028 | 6.54 | 12 | -2.29 | 4.53 – 8.55 |
| 2030 | 8.2 | 12 | -3.2 | 5.35 – 11.05 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -4.12 | 6.98 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.89typical miss · 25 realized · 140% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6k | 1.9k | 1.4k | 1.6k – 1.7k |
| 2028 | 1.5k | 2.1k | 1.1k | 1.4k – 1.7k |
| 2030 | 1.5k | 2.2k | 836.66 | 1.3k – 1.7k |
| 2035 | 1.2k | 2.2k | 358.21 | 910.93 – 1.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.7k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±384.81typical miss · 25 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.75 | 33.05 | 24.44 | 27.63 – 29.86 |
| 2028 | 30.48 | 37.94 | 23.02 | 27.88 – 33.09 |
| 2030 | 32.22 | 41.85 | 22.58 | 28.16 – 36.27 |
| 2035 | 36.55 | 50.18 | 22.93 | 28.62 – 44.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.59typical miss · 25 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.29 | 9.07 | -2.89 | 1.96 – 4.62 |
| 2028 | 2.04 | 12.04 | -5 | -0.28 – 4.35 |
| 2030 | 0.78 | 13.69 | -5 | -2.16 – 3.72 |
| 2035 | -2.35 | 15.9 | -5 | -5 – 2.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.13typical miss · 4 realized · 133% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.52 | 26.68 | 20.79 | 22.7 – 24.35 |
| 2028 | 24.82 | 30.29 | 20.08 | 22.85 – 26.8 |
| 2030 | 26.12 | 33.18 | 20 | 23.02 – 29.22 |
| 2035 | 29.37 | 39.35 | 20.72 | 23.24 – 35.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.16typical miss · 25 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.3bn – 1.4bn |
| 2028 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn – 1.4bn |
| 2030 | 1.4bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn – 1.5bn |
| 2035 | 1.5bn | 1.5bn | 1.4bn | 1.2bn – 1.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±88.3mtypical miss · 25 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.85 | 7.65 | -2.5 | 1.09 – 2.6 |
| 2028 | 3.07 | 13.11 | -4.47 | 1.66 – 4.47 |
| 2030 | 4.29 | 15 | -5.44 | 2.32 – 6.25 |
| 2035 | 7.34 | 15 | -6.42 | 3.87 – 10.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.65typical miss · 25 realized · 388% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.15 | 7.7 | 4.59 | 5.81 – 6.48 |
| 2028 | 5.77 | 8.46 | 3.08 | 5.08 – 6.46 |
| 2030 | 5.59 | 9.06 | 2.12 | 4.61 – 6.57 |
| 2035 | 5.44 | 10.36 | 0.53 | 3.82 – 7.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.58· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.41 | 6.05 | 4.77 | 5.22 – 5.59 |
| 2028 | 4.91 | 6.02 | 3.79 | 4.5 – 5.31 |
| 2030 | 4.4 | 5.84 | 2.97 | 3.83 – 4.98 |
| 2035 | 3.15 | 5.18 | 1.11 | 2.33 – 3.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.65typical miss · 20 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/TSS · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 6.4315 + -0.1068·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.548 over 51 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.89 | 2024 (2T) |
| 2027 | 3.1 | 2025 (2.2T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 10.9763 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.545 over 48 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.1T | 2023 (6.7) |
| 2027 | 1.3T | 2024 (4.3) |
| 2028 | 1.4T | 2025 (3.4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1663379747118.2278 + -85647494756.8549·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/TSS?indicator= · API docs
