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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

Research and information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain.

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World/Sentiment/Fragile and conflict affected situations

Sentiment

Fragile and conflict affected situations — sentiment

Two reads side by side: the OBSERVED OECD Consumer Confidence survey (how people feel) and the soft-vs-hard DIVERGENCE against the derived macro fundamentals (what the data says). Observed values are real and sourced; the divergence is a transparent comparison of two disclosed scores — never a forecast, and an absent series is shown honestly.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

By aspect

Composite + macro dimensions

The derived sentiment composite and the aspects driving it (growth, inflation, labour, fiscal, external). GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=dimensions.

Composite sentiment · derived
+0.06balancedWatch

Macro stress 47/100 · sentiment scale −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive) · ⓘ How this score works

Confidence: Low
As of 2025
By aspect — Fragile and conflict affected situations’s macro dimensions
GrowthWatch
+0.12balanced

Stress 44/100 · as of 2024

Momentum

Sentiment trajectory

Derived sentiment recomputed per year of held macro history — the direction of travel, not a forecast. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/history.

Sentiment trajectory · 1991–2024
+0.22Improving

Derived sentiment, −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive)

Span change

+0.67

Latest step

−0.01

Years

34

Confidence

Low

AI read

Outlook

Forward sentiment · 2025

The sentiment composite projected from the prediction engine's baseline forecasts — a projection, not observed. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=forecast.

Outlook · 2025 · projection
+0.30balancedWatch

Projected macro stress 35/100

Change vs now

+0.24 sentiment

-12 stress

GrowthNormal

Projected 2.4 · stress 31/100

LabourWatch

Projected 4.75 · stress 41/100

Projection · not observedDerived from the prediction engine’s baseline projections for 2/5 drivers (3 without a projection) · Low confidence.
AI read

Survey vs fundamentals

Survey + divergence

Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/survey and /divergence.

Survey not covered

No observed survey sentiment is currently held for Fragile and conflict affected situations.

Consumer confidence (survey)

Observed
Not coveredNot covered

No OECD Consumer Confidence Index is held for "FCS" (OECD covers ~41 economies).

Would require: An ingested OECD Consumer Confidence Index series for this country (OECD covers ~41 economies).

Soft vs hard divergence

Derived

Alerts

Get notified

We'll email you when this economy's derived sentiment crosses your threshold (−1 stressed … +1 supportive). Edge-triggered — one email when it crosses, not while it stays past the line.

Sentiment alertsSign in to set sentiment alerts.

Manage your alerts on your account.

LabourWatch
−0.04balanced

Stress 52/100 · as of 2025

Each aspect is a single macro-pressure driver — a narrow proxy, not a multi-signal sector model.

Not covered
Not covered

No OECD Consumer Confidence Index is held for "FCS" (the soft signal; OECD covers ~41 economies).

Would require: Both an ingested OECD Consumer Confidence Index series (OECD covers ~41 economies) AND a derivable macro-pressure sentiment (live growth/inflation/labour/fiscal/external) for this country.

Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/FCS/survey · /divergence · Full brief → · API docs