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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

Research and information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain.

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World/Sentiment/IDA total

Sentiment

IDA total — sentiment

Two reads side by side: the OBSERVED OECD Consumer Confidence survey (how people feel) and the soft-vs-hard DIVERGENCE against the derived macro fundamentals (what the data says). Observed values are real and sourced; the divergence is a transparent comparison of two disclosed scores — never a forecast, and an absent series is shown honestly.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

By aspect

Composite + macro dimensions

The derived sentiment composite and the aspects driving it (growth, inflation, labour, fiscal, external). GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=dimensions.

Composite sentiment · derived
+0.50supportiveNormal

Macro stress 25/100 · sentiment scale −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive) · ⓘ How this score works

Confidence: Moderate
As of 2025
By aspect — IDA total’s macro dimensions
GrowthNormal
+0.90supportive

Stress 5/100 · as of 2025

Momentum

Sentiment trajectory

Derived sentiment recomputed per year of held macro history — the direction of travel, not a forecast. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/history.

Sentiment trajectory · 1981–2025
+0.50Improving

Derived sentiment, −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive)

Span change

+1.04

Latest step

+0.06

Years

45

Outlook

Forward sentiment · 2026

The sentiment composite projected from the prediction engine's baseline forecasts — a projection, not observed. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=forecast.

Outlook · 2026 · projection
+0.50supportiveNormal

Projected macro stress 25/100

Change vs now

0.00 sentiment

0 stress

GrowthNormal

Projected 5.49 · stress 5/100

InflationWatch

Projected 3.45 · stress 42/100

LabourWatch

Survey vs fundamentals

Survey + divergence

Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/survey and /divergence.

Survey not covered

No observed survey sentiment is currently held for IDA total.

Consumer confidence (survey)

Observed
Not coveredNot covered

No OECD Consumer Confidence Index is held for "IDA" (OECD covers ~41 economies).

Would require: An ingested OECD Consumer Confidence Index series for this country (OECD covers ~41 economies).

Soft vs hard divergence

Derived

Alerts

Get notified

We'll email you when this economy's derived sentiment crosses your threshold (−1 stressed … +1 supportive). Edge-triggered — one email when it crosses, not while it stays past the line.

Sentiment alertsSign in to set sentiment alerts.

Manage your alerts on your account.

Inflation
Normal
+0.34supportive

Stress 33/100 · as of 2025

LabourWatch
+0.08balanced

Stress 46/100 · as of 2025

Each aspect is a single macro-pressure driver — a narrow proxy, not a multi-signal sector model.

Confidence

Moderate

AI read

Projected 4.16 · stress 36/100

Projection · not observedDerived from the prediction engine’s baseline projections for 3/5 drivers (2 without a projection) · Moderate confidence.
AI read
Not covered
Not covered

No OECD Consumer Confidence Index is held for "IDA" (the soft signal; OECD covers ~41 economies).

Would require: Both an ingested OECD Consumer Confidence Index series (OECD covers ~41 economies) AND a derivable macro-pressure sentiment (live growth/inflation/labour/fiscal/external) for this country.

Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/IDA/survey · /divergence · Full brief → · API docs