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Live macro and micro economic signals, historical context and probabilistic forecasts — built to surface trends before they become consensus.

Research and information only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilistic and uncertain.

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World/Sentiment/New Zealand

Sentiment

New Zealand — sentiment

Two reads side by side: the OBSERVED OECD Consumer Confidence survey (how people feel) and the soft-vs-hard DIVERGENCE against the derived macro fundamentals (what the data says). Observed values are real and sourced; the divergence is a transparent comparison of two disclosed scores — never a forecast, and an absent series is shown honestly.

How to read this:Observeda real measured value from a named source.Derivedcomputed by Predictonomy from observed series using a reproducible method.AI readan AI interpretation of already-computed figures. Opinion, not a new data point.

By aspect

Composite + macro dimensions

The derived sentiment composite and the aspects driving it (growth, inflation, labour, fiscal, external). GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=dimensions.

Composite sentiment · derived
+0.12balancedWatch

Macro stress 44/100 · sentiment scale −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive) · ⓘ How this score works

Confidence: High
As of 2025-12-31
By aspect — New Zealand’s macro dimensions
GrowthWatch
+0.08balanced

Stress 46/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Momentum

Sentiment trajectory

Derived sentiment recomputed per year of held macro history — the direction of travel, not a forecast. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/history.

Sentiment trajectory · 1961–2025
+0.09Deteriorating

Derived sentiment, −1 (stressed) … +1 (supportive)

Outlook

Forward sentiment · 2026

The sentiment composite projected from the prediction engine's baseline forecasts — a projection, not observed. GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}?include=forecast.

Outlook · 2026 · projection
+0.02balancedWatch

Projected macro stress 49/100

Change vs now

−0.10 sentiment

+5 stress

GrowthElevated

Projected -0.05 · stress 61/100

InflationWatch

Projected 3.07 · stress 38/100

LabourWatch

Survey vs fundamentals

Survey + divergence

Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/{iso3}/survey and /divergence.

Survey heldledger 51018ed

New Zealand: consumer confidence is 96.93493 (below-trend pessimism); soft vs hard sentiment is divergent — confidence behind fundamentals.

Consumer confidence (survey)

Observed
OECD Consumer Confidence Index
96.93

Alerts

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We'll email you when this economy's derived sentiment crosses your threshold (−1 stressed … +1 supportive). Edge-triggered — one email when it crosses, not while it stays past the line.

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Inflation
Normal
+0.46supportive

Stress 27/100 · as of 2025-12-31

LabourWatch
−0.04balanced

Stress 52/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Debt / fiscalWatch
+0.22balanced

Stress 39/100 · as of 2025-12-31

ExternalElevated
−0.28cautious

Stress 64/100 · as of 2025-12-31

Each aspect is a single macro-pressure driver — a narrow proxy, not a multi-signal sector model.

Span change

−0.49

Latest step

+0.09

Years

65

Confidence

High

AI read

Projected 5.24 · stress 45/100

Debt / fiscalNormal

Projected 57.61 · stress 33/100

ExternalElevated

Projected -3.98 · stress 74/100

Projection · not observedDerived from the prediction engine’s baseline projections for 5/5 drivers · High confidence.
AI read

OECD SDMX API

Below-trend pessimismvs 100 long-run trend
MoM ▼−0.543m ▼−1.45YoY ▼−1.12

Consumer confidence in New Zealand is 96.93 — below the 100 long-run trend (below-trend pessimism) and falling.

Soft vs hard divergence

Derived
DivergentConfidence behind fundamentalsconf high
Soft (survey)
-0.61

CCI 96.93 · pessimistic

Hard (macro)
+0.12

balanced · pressure 44

Gap (soft − hard)
-0.73

>0 = confidence ahead

DIVERGENCE for New Zealand: consumers are gloomier than the macro fundamentals justify (confidence lagging behind the hard data).

Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/sentiment/country/NZL/survey · /divergence · Full brief → · API docs