Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Aruba: forward projections across 13 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2033, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Aruba's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.805 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.3bn | 2023 (83) |
Latest observed10.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.12 | 30 | -3.97 | 10.2 – 18.04 |
| 2028 | 19.16 | 30 | -12.18 | 11.84 – 26.47 |
| 2030 | 24.2 | 30 | -16.25 | 14 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -27.2 | 13.53 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.16· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.62typical miss · 1 realized · 34% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed85.97(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 88.67 | 107.01 | 72.78 | 84.64 – 92.71 |
| 2027 | 94.08 | 125.84 | 66.56 | 85.03 – 103.14 |
| 2029 | 99.49 | 140.5 | 63.96 | 85.68 – 113.31 |
| 2034 | 113.02 | 150 | 62.76 | 86.65 – 139.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead85.24· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.2bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.7bn | 5.6bn | 3.8bn | 4.5bn – 4.8bn |
| 2028 | 5.3bn | 6.9bn | 3.9bn | 4.8bn – 5.7bn |
| 2030 | 5.9bn | 8bn | 4bn | 5.1bn – 6.6bn |
| 2035 | 7.4bn | 10.3bn | 4.8bn | 5.8bn – 8.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±16.8mtypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.81(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.54 | 12 | -10 | 0.69 – 12 |
| 2028 | 7.28 | 12 | -10 | -3.02 – 12 |
| 2030 | 8.03 | 12 | -10 | -5.46 – 12 |
| 2035 | 9.88 | 12 | -10 | -9.86 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.84typical miss · 1 realized · 77% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.6k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.6k | 51.2k | 35.2k | 40.9k – 44.3k |
| 2028 | 47.9k | 62.7k | 35.1k | 43.9k – 52k |
| 2030 | 53.2k | 72.3k | 36.6k | 46.7k – 59.7k |
| 2035 | 66.4k | 93.4k | 43k | 52.6k – 80.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±302.1typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 64.77 | 95.22 | 29.64 | 59.05 – 70.49 |
| 2028 | 64.71 | 117.45 | 3.86 | 53.49 – 75.93 |
| 2030 | 64.65 | 132.73 | 0 | 49.01 – 80.3 |
| 2035 | 64.5 | 160.79 | 0 | 39.37 – 89.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead58.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.17typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.17(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 79.47 | 87.37 | 71.58 | 76.99 – 81.95 |
| 2027 | 82.08 | 95.75 | 68.4 | 76 – 88.15 |
| 2029 | 84.68 | 102.34 | 67.03 | 75.07 – 94.3 |
| 2034 | 91.19 | 116.16 | 66.23 | 72.28 – 110.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead79.02· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.26(2019)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.37 | 5.11 | -5 | -1.61 – 0.86 |
| 2028 | -2.61 | 6.89 | -5 | -4.85 – -0.38 |
| 2030 | -4.85 | 7.41 | -5 | -5 – -1.75 |
| 2035 | -5 | 12.35 | -5 | -5 – -0.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.83· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.17typical miss · 1 realized · 121% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed108.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 108.8k | 113.9k | 104k | 105.4k – 112.1k |
| 2028 | 109.6k | 114.8k | 104.8k | 101.5k – 117.7k |
| 2030 | 110.5k | 115.7k | 105.7k | 98k – 123.1k |
| 2035 | 112.7k | 118k | 107.7k | 89.3k – 136.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead109.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±233.18typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9bn | 2.2bn | 1.6bn | 1.8bn – 2bn |
| 2028 | 2.2bn | 2.8bn | 1.7bn | 2bn – 2.4bn |
| 2030 | 2.5bn | 3.2bn | 1.8bn | 2.2bn – 2.8bn |
| 2035 | 3.3bn | 4.3bn | 2.3bn | 2.6bn – 4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.82(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5.77 | 8.42 | 3.11 | 5.27 – 6.27 |
| 2026 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 1.1 | 4.72 – 6.68 |
| 2028 | 5.67 | 11.61 | 0 | 4.31 – 7.03 |
| 2033 | 5.64 | 14.04 | 0 | 3.45 – 7.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.99· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4bn | 2.8bn | 2.1bn | 2.3bn – 2.5bn |
| 2028 | 2.8bn | 3.4bn | 2.2bn | 2.6bn – 3.1bn |
| 2030 | 3.3bn | 4.1bn | 2.5bn | 2.9bn – 3.7bn |
| 2035 | 4.4bn | 5.5bn | 3.3bn | 3.5bn – 5.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.95 | 6.49 | 0 | 2.36 – 3.54 |
| 2028 | 0.85 | 6.98 | 0 | 0 – 1.83 |
| 2030 | 0 | 7.92 | 0 | 0 – 1.29 |
| 2035 | 0 | 11.2 | 0 | 0 – 1.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.48· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.95typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ABW · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 |
| 3bn |
| 2024 (72.5) |
| 2028 | 2.8bn | 2025 (64.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1146429653.4609 + 25971200.0092·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.717 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92.73 | 2023 (3.7bn) |
| 2027 | 101.72 | 2024 (4.2bn) |
| 2028 | 107.11 | 2025 (4.4bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 12.7156 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.658 over 38 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.29 | 2025 (6.3) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 7.651 + -0.2154·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ABW?indicator= · API docs
