Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Angola: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Angola's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.672 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 423.48 | 2023 (1.32) |
Latest observed2.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.15 | 8.71 | -9.01 | -1.97 – 1.68 |
| 2028 | -1.04 | 14.31 | -16.39 | -4.23 – 2.14 |
| 2030 | -1.94 | 17.88 | -21.75 | -6.14 – 2.26 |
| 2035 | -4.18 | 23.85 | -30 | -10.56 – 2.21 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.95typical miss · 1 realized · 105% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.53 | 31.8 | 12.63 | 19.72 – 23.34 |
| 2028 | 18.63 | 36.41 | 3.21 | 15.19 – 22.06 |
| 2030 | 15.73 | 38.69 | 0 | 11.19 – 20.27 |
| 2035 | 8.48 | 40.95 | 0 | 2.48 – 14.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.8typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed122.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 121.8bn | 173.3bn | 77.2bn | 113.7bn – 129.9bn |
| 2028 | 124.3bn | 213.5bn | 47bn | 107.7bn – 140.9bn |
| 2030 | 126.7bn | 241.9bn | 26.9bn | 102.9bn – 150.6bn |
| 2035 | 132.9bn | 295.7bn | 0 | 92.2bn – 173.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead168bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±35.5bntypical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.16 | 11.06 | -1.82 | 2.94 – 5.37 |
| 2028 | 6.4 | 12 | -3.96 | 4.1 – 8.7 |
| 2030 | 8.64 | 12 | -4.73 | 5.38 – 11.9 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -6.91 | 6.44 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.67· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.24typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3k | 4.5k | 1.8k | 2.8k – 3.3k |
| 2028 | 2.9k | 5.5k | 726.29 | 2.5k – 3.4k |
| 2030 | 2.8k | 6.1k | 0 | 2.2k – 3.5k |
| 2035 | 2.6k | 7.2k | 0 | 1.6k – 3.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±826.04typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.77 | 90.51 | 4.92 | 43.84 – 57.7 |
| 2028 | 46.51 | 115.34 | 0 | 33.69 – 59.33 |
| 2030 | 42.25 | 131.11 | 0 | 25.2 – 59.3 |
| 2035 | 31.6 | 157.27 | 0 | 7.21 – 55.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead49.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.73typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.41 | 15.44 | 5.39 | 9.48 – 11.35 |
| 2028 | 7.91 | 16.61 | 0 | 6.2 – 9.62 |
| 2030 | 5.4 | 16.63 | 0 | 3.25 – 7.55 |
| 2035 | 0 | 15.88 | 0 | 0 – 2.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.37typical miss · 1 realized · 63% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.85 | 33.28 | -2.82 | 11.74 – 19.97 |
| 2028 | 4.54 | 34.72 | -5 | -2.37 – 11.45 |
| 2030 | -5 | 33.96 | -5 | -5 – 4.04 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.25typical miss · 1 realized · 50% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.62(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.97 | 12.7 | 5.75 | 8.3 – 9.65 |
| 2027 | 4.57 | 11.03 | 0 | 3.43 – 5.72 |
| 2029 | 0.17 | 8.5 | 0 | 0 – 1.44 |
| 2034 | 0 | 11.78 | 0 | 0 – 1.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.04· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.7m | 40.6m | 37m | 37.5m – 39.9m |
| 2028 | 40m | 41.9m | 38.3m | 37.1m – 43m |
| 2030 | 41.3m | 43.2m | 39.5m | 36.6m – 46m |
| 2035 | 44.5m | 46.6m | 42.5m | 35.2m – 53.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead41.6m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.8mtypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.43 | 7.58 | -4.93 | -0.48 – 1.34 |
| 2028 | 1.91 | 14.3 | -7.38 | 0.27 – 3.55 |
| 2030 | 3.4 | 15 | -8.6 | 1.12 – 5.67 |
| 2035 | 7.1 | 15 | -9.86 | 3.14 – 11.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.19typical miss · 1 realized · 1568% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.5bn | 15.7bn | 11.3bn | 12.9bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 13.2bn | 17bn | 9.5bn | 12bn – 14.5bn |
| 2030 | 13bn | 17.9bn | 8.1bn | 11.2bn – 14.8bn |
| 2035 | 12.4bn | 19.3bn | 5.5bn | 9.4bn – 15.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.56 | 8.58 | 2.55 | 5.01 – 6.11 |
| 2028 | 5.89 | 11.11 | 0.66 | 4.81 – 6.97 |
| 2030 | 6.05 | 12.79 | 0 | 4.53 – 7.56 |
| 2035 | 6.17 | 15.72 | 0 | 3.72 – 8.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.08· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.5bn | 15.7bn | 11.3bn | 12.9bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 13.2bn | 17bn | 9.5bn | 12bn – 14.5bn |
| 2030 | 13bn | 17.9bn | 8.1bn | 11.2bn – 14.8bn |
| 2035 | 12.4bn | 19.3bn | 5.5bn | 9.4bn – 15.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.58 | 14.91 | 12.26 | 13.16 – 14 |
| 2028 | 12.54 | 14.83 | 10.24 | 11.58 – 13.49 |
| 2030 | 11.49 | 14.45 | 8.52 | 10.11 – 12.86 |
| 2035 | 8.87 | 13.05 | 4.68 | 6.81 – 10.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.22· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/AGO · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 148.68 | 2024 (4.95) |
| 2028 | 286.3 | 2025 (3.13) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 523.3451 + -75.649·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.628 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.68 | 2025 (3.13) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 73.0534 + -3.6285·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.532 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.68 | 2023 (75.7) |
| 2027 | 16.01 | 2024 (55) |
| 2028 | 16.04 | 2025 (52.9) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 16.8834 + -0.0159·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/AGO?indicator= · API docs
