Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Angola: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Angola's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.668 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 140.03 | 2024 (4.95) |
Latest observed2.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.65 | 10.67 | -7.37 | -0.22 – 3.52 |
| 2029 | 0.55 | 16.17 | -15.07 | -2.68 – 3.79 |
| 2031 | -0.54 | 19.62 | -20.71 | -4.74 – 3.65 |
| 2036 | -3.29 | 25.23 | -30 | -9.63 – 3.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.4· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.53 | 31.8 | 12.63 | 19.72 – 23.34 |
| 2028 | 18.63 | 36.41 | 3.21 | 15.19 – 22.06 |
| 2030 | 15.73 | 38.69 | 0 | 11.19 – 20.27 |
| 2035 | 8.48 | 40.95 | 0 | 2.48 – 14.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.8typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed122.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 163.1bn | 216bn | 117.1bn | 154.1bn – 172bn |
| 2029 | 190.3bn | 282bn | 110.8bn | 170.2bn – 210.3bn |
| 2031 | 217.5bn | 336bn | 114.9bn | 186bn – 249bn |
| 2036 | 285.6bn | 453.1bn | 140.4bn | 220bn – 351.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead162.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.59 | 6.56 | -2.71 | 0.74 – 2.45 |
| 2029 | 0.13 | 8.74 | -7.33 | -1.35 – 1.61 |
| 2031 | -1.33 | 9.78 | -10 | -3.29 – 0.63 |
| 2036 | -4.99 | 10.73 | -10 | -8.4 – -1.57 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4k | 5.4k | 2.7k | 3.7k – 4.2k |
| 2029 | 4.5k | 7k | 2.2k | 3.9k – 5k |
| 2031 | 5k | 8.3k | 2.1k | 4.2k – 5.8k |
| 2036 | 6.3k | 10.9k | 2.2k | 4.7k – 7.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.9k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 47.64 | 87.01 | 2.22 | 40.82 – 54.46 |
| 2029 | 39.73 | 107.92 | 0 | 27.33 – 52.12 |
| 2031 | 31.81 | 119.84 | 0 | 15.72 – 47.9 |
| 2036 | 12.02 | 136.52 | 0 | 0 – 33.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead49.98· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.41 | 15.44 | 5.39 | 9.48 – 11.35 |
| 2028 | 7.91 | 16.61 | 0 | 6.2 – 9.62 |
| 2030 | 5.4 | 16.63 | 0 | 3.25 – 7.55 |
| 2035 | 0 | 15.88 | 0 | 0 – 2.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.37typical miss · 1 realized · 63% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.4 | 28.02 | -5 | 6.33 – 14.47 |
| 2029 | 0.23 | 30.76 | -5 | -5 – 7.05 |
| 2031 | -5 | 34.41 | -5 | -5 – 4.14 |
| 2036 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 8.15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.14· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.62(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8.97 | 12.7 | 5.75 | 8.3 – 9.65 |
| 2027 | 4.57 | 11.03 | 0 | 3.43 – 5.72 |
| 2029 | 0.17 | 8.5 | 0 | 0 – 1.44 |
| 2034 | 0 | 11.78 | 0 | 0 – 1.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.04· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 40.3m | 42.2m | 38.6m | 39.1m – 41.6m |
| 2029 | 42m | 44m | 40.2m | 38.9m – 45.1m |
| 2031 | 43.7m | 45.8m | 41.8m | 38.8m – 48.7m |
| 2036 | 48m | 50.2m | 45.9m | 38m – 57.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead41.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.43 | 7.58 | -4.93 | -0.48 – 1.34 |
| 2028 | 1.91 | 14.3 | -7.38 | 0.27 – 3.55 |
| 2030 | 3.4 | 15 | -8.6 | 1.12 – 5.67 |
| 2035 | 7.1 | 15 | -9.86 | 3.14 – 11.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.19typical miss · 1 realized · 1568% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.5bn | 15.7bn | 11.3bn | 12.9bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 13.2bn | 17bn | 9.5bn | 12bn – 14.5bn |
| 2030 | 13bn | 17.9bn | 8.1bn | 11.2bn – 14.8bn |
| 2035 | 12.4bn | 19.3bn | 5.5bn | 9.4bn – 15.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.59 | 8.61 | 2.57 | 5.04 – 6.14 |
| 2028 | 5.9 | 11.13 | 0.67 | 4.82 – 6.98 |
| 2030 | 6.05 | 12.8 | 0 | 4.54 – 7.57 |
| 2035 | 6.18 | 15.72 | 0 | 3.73 – 8.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.11· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.5bn | 15.7bn | 11.3bn | 12.9bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 13.2bn | 17bn | 9.5bn | 12bn – 14.5bn |
| 2030 | 13bn | 17.9bn | 8.1bn | 11.2bn – 14.8bn |
| 2035 | 12.4bn | 19.3bn | 5.5bn | 9.4bn – 15.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.58 | 14.91 | 12.26 | 13.16 – 14 |
| 2028 | 12.54 | 14.83 | 10.24 | 11.58 – 13.49 |
| 2030 | 11.49 | 14.45 | 8.52 | 10.11 – 12.86 |
| 2035 | 8.87 | 13.05 | 4.68 | 6.81 – 10.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.22· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/AGO · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 276.84 | 2025 (3.13) |
| 2029 | 339.52 | 2026 (2.3) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 512.49 + -75.2039·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.627 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 64.33 | 2026 (2.3) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 72.6468 + -3.6173·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.532 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.68 | 2023 (75.7) |
| 2027 | 15.98 | 2024 (57.1) |
| 2028 | 16.07 | 2025 (51.3) |
| 2029 | 16.06 | 2026 (51.6) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 16.8834 + -0.0159·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/AGO?indicator= · API docs
