Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Albania: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Albania's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.777 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.82 | 2025 (3.79) |
Latest observed-2.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.37 | 3.91 | -3.17 | -0.37 – 1.11 |
| 2028 | 2.51 | 8.64 | -3.62 | 1.14 – 3.88 |
| 2030 | 4.65 | 12.56 | -3.27 | 2.66 – 6.63 |
| 2035 | 9.99 | 21.18 | -1.2 | 6.11 – 13.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.58· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.47typical miss · 1 realized · 118% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38.46 | 49.19 | 29.16 | 36.32 – 40.61 |
| 2028 | 41.36 | 59.95 | 25.26 | 36.72 – 46 |
| 2030 | 44.26 | 68.25 | 23.47 | 37.29 – 51.23 |
| 2035 | 51.51 | 85.44 | 22.1 | 38.42 – 64.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead37.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.47typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.1bn | 36.8bn | 30bn | 32.1bn – 34.2bn |
| 2028 | 39.5bn | 45.8bn | 34bn | 36.6bn – 42.4bn |
| 2030 | 45.9bn | 54bn | 38.8bn | 40.7bn – 51.1bn |
| 2035 | 61.8bn | 73.3bn | 51.9bn | 49bn – 74.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±358.7mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.93 | 12 | -6.32 | 1.9 – 5.97 |
| 2028 | 4.22 | 12 | -10 | 0.61 – 7.84 |
| 2030 | 4.52 | 12 | -10 | -0.25 – 9.29 |
| 2035 | 5.25 | 12 | -10 | -1.83 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.43typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.2k | 15.7k | 12.8k | 13.7k – 14.6k |
| 2028 | 17k | 19.7k | 14.7k | 15.8k – 18.3k |
| 2030 | 19.9k | 23.4k | 16.9k | 17.7k – 22.2k |
| 2035 | 27.2k | 32.1k | 22.9k | 21.5k – 32.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±185.78typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.64 | 60.48 | 41.44 | 49.46 – 53.83 |
| 2028 | 47.33 | 62.64 | 29.66 | 42.7 – 51.95 |
| 2030 | 43.01 | 62.78 | 20.2 | 36.53 – 49.49 |
| 2035 | 32.22 | 60.17 | 0 | 22.76 – 41.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.94typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.56 | 51.13 | 33.98 | 40.56 – 44.55 |
| 2028 | 42.63 | 57.49 | 27.77 | 38.31 – 46.95 |
| 2030 | 42.7 | 61.88 | 23.52 | 36.35 – 49.05 |
| 2035 | 42.89 | 70.01 | 15.76 | 31.87 – 53.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.73· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.59typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.36 | 7.53 | -3.18 | 1.18 – 3.54 |
| 2028 | 2.26 | 11.21 | -5 | 0.17 – 4.36 |
| 2030 | 2.17 | 13.72 | -5 | -0.57 – 4.9 |
| 2035 | 1.92 | 18.26 | -5 | -2.01 – 5.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.84typical miss · 1 realized · 26% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.01 | 26.52 | 21.82 | 23.26 – 24.75 |
| 2028 | 23.36 | 27.72 | 19.58 | 21.61 – 25.1 |
| 2030 | 22.71 | 28.34 | 17.83 | 20.09 – 25.33 |
| 2035 | 21.1 | 29.06 | 14.19 | 16.58 – 25.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.47typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4m | 2.5m | 2.3m | 2.3m – 2.4m |
| 2028 | 2.3m | 2.4m | 2.2m | 2.2m – 2.5m |
| 2030 | 2.3m | 2.4m | 2.2m | 2m – 2.6m |
| 2035 | 2.2m | 2.3m | 2.1m | 1.8m – 2.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.3m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±14.3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.43 | 15 | -3.72 | 3.81 – 7.04 |
| 2028 | 7.31 | 15 | -8.53 | 4.32 – 10.3 |
| 2030 | 9.19 | 15 | -10 | 5.05 – 13.33 |
| 2035 | 13.89 | 15 | -10 | 6.85 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.11typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.7bn | 10.2bn | 7.2bn | 8.3bn – 9bn |
| 2028 | 10.2bn | 12.8bn | 7.6bn | 9.3bn – 11.1bn |
| 2030 | 11.7bn | 15.1bn | 8.4bn | 10.3bn – 13.2bn |
| 2035 | 15.5bn | 20.3bn | 10.8bn | 12.3bn – 18.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.11 | 9.76 | 4.45 | 6.59 – 7.63 |
| 2028 | 6.98 | 11.59 | 2.38 | 5.94 – 8.02 |
| 2030 | 6.92 | 12.87 | 0.98 | 5.46 – 8.39 |
| 2035 | 6.88 | 15.28 | 0 | 4.49 – 9.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.33· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.3bn | 10.8bn | 7.7bn | 8.9bn – 9.7bn |
| 2028 | 11bn | 13.7bn | 8.2bn | 10bn – 11.9bn |
| 2030 | 12.7bn | 16.2bn | 9.1bn | 11.1bn – 14.2bn |
| 2035 | 16.9bn | 21.9bn | 11.9bn | 13.4bn – 20.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.75 | 11.35 | 10.15 | 10.42 – 11.09 |
| 2028 | 10.41 | 11.45 | 9.37 | 9.64 – 11.18 |
| 2030 | 10.06 | 11.41 | 8.72 | 8.92 – 11.21 |
| 2035 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 7.29 – 11.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.45· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.05typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ALB · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 27.2614 + -4.0751·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.65 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.66 | 2023 (58) |
| 2027 | -11.85 | 2024 (54.5) |
| 2028 | -12.09 | 2025 (53.8) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -30.4206 + 0.3408·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.557 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.88 | 2025 (2.15) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 14.7557 + 0.0596·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ALB?indicator= · API docs
