Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Andorra: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Andorra's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.766 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 42.75 | 2024 (4bn) |
Latest observed16(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.92 | 19.78 | 12.06 | 14.88 – 16.96 |
| 2029 | 15.76 | 22.45 | 9.08 | 13.64 – 17.88 |
| 2031 | 15.6 | 24.23 | 6.97 | 12.59 – 18.61 |
| 2036 | 15.2 | 27.41 | 3 | 10.28 – 20.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.82· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.1bn | 5.7bn | 4.7bn | 5bn – 5.3bn |
| 2029 | 5.8bn | 6.7bn | 5bn | 5.4bn – 6.2bn |
| 2031 | 6.5bn | 7.6bn | 5.5bn | 5.7bn – 7.2bn |
| 2036 | 8.1bn | 9.8bn | 6.7bn | 6.4bn – 9.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.22 | 7.69 | -4.39 | 0.12 – 2.32 |
| 2029 | -0.88 | 10.32 | -10 | -2.8 – 1.03 |
| 2031 | -2.98 | 11.48 | -10 | -5.63 – -0.33 |
| 2036 | -8.23 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -3.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.12· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 55.4k | 62.1k | 49.7k | 53.7k – 57.1k |
| 2029 | 60.3k | 71.8k | 50.3k | 55.8k – 64.7k |
| 2031 | 65.1k | 80k | 52.2k | 57.7k – 72.5k |
| 2036 | 77.2k | 98.3k | 59k | 61.2k – 93.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead54.8k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 26.87 | 36.33 | 15.96 | 24.99 – 28.76 |
| 2029 | 24.61 | 40.99 | 5.71 | 20.91 – 28.31 |
| 2031 | 22.35 | 43.5 | 0 | 17.31 – 27.4 |
| 2036 | 16.71 | 46.61 | 0 | 9.44 – 23.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.77· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.36 | 8.11 | -1.72 | 2.26 – 4.47 |
| 2029 | 4.2 | 12.43 | -4.61 | 2.18 – 6.23 |
| 2031 | 5.04 | 15.67 | -5 | 2.29 – 7.8 |
| 2036 | 7.14 | 22.16 | -5 | 2.67 – 11.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.97· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed82.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 91.4k | 95.7k | 87.4k | 88.6k – 94.3k |
| 2029 | 100.3k | 107.5k | 93.7k | 92.9k – 107.8k |
| 2031 | 109.2k | 118.5k | 100.6k | 96.8k – 121.6k |
| 2036 | 131.5k | 144.6k | 119.3k | 104.2k – 158.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead92.3k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.7 | 1.57 | 0 | 0.55 – 0.85 |
| 2029 | 0 | 1.51 | 0 | 0 – 0.28 |
| 2031 | 0 | 1.95 | 0 | 0 – 0.38 |
| 2036 | 0 | 2.76 | 0 | 0 – 0.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.23· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/AND · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 47.26 | 2025 (4.5bn) |
| 2029 | 50.99 | 2026 (4.9bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 2.838 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.759 over 7 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.46 | 2026 (16) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 15.7232 + -0.829·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.727 over 8 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 16.95 | 2026 (1.1) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 18.921 + -1.7956·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.66 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.7bn | 2024 (3.1) |
| 2028 | 3.6bn | 2025 (2.4) |
| 2029 | 3.7bn | 2026 (3) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 3144147435.9304 + 175208860.193·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.636 over 6 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.99 | 2025 (15.9) |
| 2028 | 2.01 | 2026 (16) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ -2.0209 + 0.2519·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/AND?indicator= · API docs
