Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Andorra: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Andorra's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.801 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.27 | 2023 (3.8bn) |
Latest observed20.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.21 | 25.51 | 14.92 | 18.81 – 21.62 |
| 2028 | 20.64 | 29.82 | 11.46 | 17.78 – 23.51 |
| 2030 | 21.07 | 30 | 9.22 | 16.97 – 25.18 |
| 2035 | 22.14 | 30 | 5.39 | 15.18 – 29.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.53· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.29typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.7bn | 5.3bn | 4.3bn | 4.6bn – 4.9bn |
| 2028 | 5.3bn | 6.3bn | 4.5bn | 4.9bn – 5.7bn |
| 2030 | 5.9bn | 7.1bn | 4.9bn | 5.2bn – 6.6bn |
| 2035 | 7.4bn | 9.1bn | 5.9bn | 5.9bn – 8.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±178.6mtypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.8 | 12 | -10 | 1.65 – 7.95 |
| 2028 | 6.79 | 12 | -10 | 1.14 – 12 |
| 2030 | 8.78 | 12 | -10 | 1.21 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 0.36 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.88· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.9typical miss · 1 realized · 153% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.6k | 63.5k | 50.7k | 54.9k – 58.4k |
| 2028 | 62.6k | 74.4k | 52.3k | 57.9k – 67.2k |
| 2030 | 68.5k | 83.8k | 55.2k | 60.7k – 76.3k |
| 2035 | 83.3k | 105k | 64.5k | 66k – 100.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.62 | 39.06 | 18.73 | 27.69 – 31.55 |
| 2028 | 28.26 | 44.61 | 9.39 | 24.39 – 32.13 |
| 2030 | 26.9 | 48.01 | 2.54 | 21.5 – 32.3 |
| 2035 | 23.49 | 53.35 | 0 | 15.14 – 31.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.55· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.82typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.32 | 7.2 | -2.9 | 1.2 – 3.44 |
| 2028 | 1.34 | 9.79 | -5 | -0.6 – 3.28 |
| 2030 | 0.36 | 11.26 | -5 | -2.14 – 2.86 |
| 2035 | -2.09 | 13.33 | -5 | -5 – 1.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.68typical miss · 1 realized · 42% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed82.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 82.6k | 86.5k | 79k | 80k – 85.1k |
| 2028 | 83.7k | 87.6k | 80k | 77.5k – 89.8k |
| 2030 | 84.7k | 88.7k | 81k | 75.1k – 94.3k |
| 2035 | 87.4k | 91.5k | 83.5k | 69.2k – 105.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead92.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.9 | 1.97 | 0 | 0.72 – 1.08 |
| 2028 | 0.1 | 1.95 | 0 | 0 – 0.43 |
| 2030 | 0 | 2.39 | 0 | 0 – 0.45 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.38 | 0 | 0 – 0.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.61· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.6typical miss · 1 realized · 40% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/AND · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 44 | 2024 (4bn) |
| 2028 | 48.81 | 2025 (4.5bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 1.4087 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.799 over 7 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.46 | 2025 (1.3) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 22.5071 + -3.1151·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.765 over 6 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.02 | 2025 (20) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 15.9153 + -0.8469·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.607 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.6bn | 2024 (3.1) |
| 2027 | 3.5bn | 2025 (2.4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 3133385089.3005 + 136063173.6802·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.549 over 6 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.17 | 2025 (20) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ -1.1427 + 0.2157·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/AND?indicator= · API docs
